Nice posts Carlton. Yeah, it beggars belief that on a science site we see people parroting the "it's the greenies" myth. Or the "it's arson" distraction (lightning started Gospers Mountain on 26th Oct, and late Nov dry lightning started Green Wattle Creek and Ruined Castle among about 100 other fires) - arson is a problem, but not the critical difference thus year. Never mind that the greens have not held any significant power, the truth is that this is the hottest and driest season on record (see December reports from the
Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC,
Bureau of Meteorology). Record high temperatures, low precipitation, low soil moisture, high fire danger. We broke the continent-averaged temperature record by 1.6C - from a climate statistics point of view, for such a wide area, that is by an extraordinary amount, the sort of record that should maybe fall by a fraction of a degree. This is all of course as forecast by climate scientists, who have identified the heating and drying trend in SE Aus, increased fire weather, increased extremes, in line with the physics (e.g. State of the Climate 2018). This is what +1C global temperature looks like. Fancy exploring what +2C will be like, or +4C?
The chart shows NSW temp/precipitation and where 2019 relates to previous years. I'm sure all the extra fuel thanks to the not-in-power greenies helped push 2019's temperature, precipitation to records levels /sarc
[From the CRC December outlook:] "The tendency for fire seasons to become more intense and fire danger to occur earlier in the season is a clear trend in Australia’s climate, reflecting reduced and/or less reliable cool season rainfall and rising temperatures (see State of the Climate 2018). Fire season severity is increasing across much of Australia as measured by annual (July to June) indices
of the FFDI, with the increases tending to be greatest in inland eastern Australia and coastal Western Australia."