Quote:
Originally Posted by andyc
Yeah, the severity of this season is pretty much nothing to do with hazard reduction (that's a dangerous political distraction). We've had the hottest and driest preceding conditions on record in NSW (we know the physics of why that is the case), coupled with fire-friendly weather patterns during the first part of this fire season (which has a side-effect of below-average conditions in VIC and grumpy slightly chilly Victorians). But I'd rather have Victoria's weather than the thick smoke and burnt leaves falling out the sky like we had last week.
The first attached image is by scientist Robert Rohde, and neatly highlights our heating and drying NSW climate over the decades ( animation here), and where some bad fire seasons sit. 2019 is pretty extreme, but in terms of heat, will be pretty normal in a couple of decades. The second compares fuel moisture this year to some extreme fire years. |
In this regard it's worth mentioning that there is a lot of research being done into bushfires. At Uni of Wollongong we have had the Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires (CERMB) for many years (headed by Prof Ross Bradstock, who is cited in the second diagram above). The NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub is hosted by CERMB. Last week the Australian Research Council announced the recipients of this years Discovery Grants and bushfire research is part of several grants that I have seen.
University of Tasmania
Professor David Bowman (DP200102395)
Does fire control vegetation in the Tasmanian World Heritage Area?
Aims: This project aims to discriminate between competing explanations for vegetation patterns in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area: (a) fire (the legacy of Aboriginal burning), or (b) soil. We will do this through a novel, transdisciplinary research program. Significance: The project expects to create new knowledge essential for achieving evidence-based fire management, as well as to advance a globally important ecological theory. Outcomes: Expected outcomes include significantly strengthened fire science and fire management capacity in Tasmania. Benefit: Benefits should include the protection of globally significant cultural, biological and landscape values that sustain the vibrant Tasmanian tourist economy. Funding: $321,000.00
The University of New South Wales
Professor Andrew Baker; Dr Pauline Treble (DP200100203)
Reconstructing Australia’s fire history from cave stalagmites.
Fire represents a major natural hazard, and its impact on Australian communities and ecosystems is increasing. Representing a world first, this project aims to calibrate the paleofire signal from stalagmites in shallow caves, and to construct annually resolved stalagmite records of paleofire frequency and intensity for the last millennia. The project aims to use stalagmites from south west Australia to determine the relationship between fire and climate and assess the robustness of stalagmite hydroclimate proxies in fire-prone regions. This project expects to establish a new research field for speleothem science, enhancing capacity for the Australian Quaternary and speleothem research communities, as well as benefits to land managers. Funding: $472,000.00
University of Wollongong
Associate Professor Anthony Dosseto; Associate Professor Scott Mooney; Professor Ross Bradstock; Dr Damien Lemarchand; Dr Nathalie Vigier (DP200101123)
Shaping a sunburnt country: fire, climate and the Australian landscape.
Fire shapes Australia’s landscape, biodiversity and resources. This project aims to quantify the recent history of fire intensity and severity using several novel proxies in the fire-prone landscapes of south-eastern Australia. Calibration of these new proxies to recent wildfires will be used for a better characterisation of fire regimes. This research will be applied to sedimentary archives to investigate how fire regimes have evolved over the past 100 years. The outcomes will inform debates about the relationship between climatic variability and fire severity, and this will contribute to increase the preparedness of natural resource management to potential future climate and land-use scenarios. Funding: $379,000.00