Quote:
Originally Posted by raymo
I am totally confident that first diesel vehicles, and then petrol ones, will
in fact become redundant even sooner than you expect. Both electric and
fuel cell technology are going full steam[pun unintended] ahead, battery
life for vehicles is improving in leaps and bounds. The same goes for alternative power sources. I am not anti nuclear, but Australia has always
been one of the most conservative and head in the sand western
countries, and will most probably continue that way to the bitter end.
Wind farms are not pathetic, although they do have their downside, that being the rainshadow downwind of them, and the noise. There are a number of windfarms around the world that put out power comparable to our largest coal stations. I wouldn't call that pathetic.
New designs of solar power systems are being developed also. Because so many homes have solar panels some states now have surplus generating
capacity.raymo
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A couple of observations here... (std disclaimer, I'm a Petroleum engineer, but with a “Green-ish” twist)...
1) Petrol will probably be phased out before diesel. The main paradigm for diesel is that most heavy transports rely on a more concentrated energy source (i.e. more “instantaneous” horsepower) and while electric is certainly a viable option; the problem is that the horsepower to torque relationship is not ideal for either the transport industry or for the resource industry. It may argued that a transport vehicle is better served by an electric motor as the torque requirements are not important, but this is only the case where the geography is relatively flat.
I would imagine that in a greener world, heavy prime movers would be powered via LNG, as this is pure methane. Combustion would release only H2O and CO2, with no SoX or NoX. In the US, LNG is starting to take off as a viable alternative to diesel. The greatest advantage of LNG is that is not combustible in its liquid form and if spilled will only ignite as a ground fire.
Petroleum on the other hand has a direct competitor in the new paradigm, electric cars (thank you Elon)… Momentum that is gathering here seems to me to be unstoppable. The only flaw in the design is distance. The Tesla Model S can travel 335 miles on a single charge. GREAT!, but it takes 9 hours to charge it for the next 335 miles. I drive a mid-size pickup, BIG-V8, 22 gallon tank, 440 mile range, tops up in 2 minutes… while I understand that the younger generation would LOVE to have time to cruise the web on their phone, I think even they would start to get annoyed at a 9 hour waiting time versus my two minutes…
2) The demise of petrol… I’ve been in the Petroleum Industry for 37 years and I can tell you that I welcome the transition into an alternative fuel source that is more environmentally friendly. Petroleum has transformed the world, no question, but even though the energy concentrated per mole of hydrocarbon is greater than can be achieve by either batteries or fuel cells, I can envision a day where technology can better utilize mid to heavy hydrocarbons in a better way via reforming or synthesizing materials that can symbiotically be used in everyday life rather than using it to “push” us around the globe. Exotic polymers come to mind...
3) Battery life… this is the main problem. From a safety point of view, ANY hydrocarbon is probably safer than the current generation of fuel cells or batteries. Energy concentration is the name of the game and hydrocarbons have the upper hand. Hydrocarbon powered vehicles rarely explode(as a whole, not talking about the ICE) and while there has been no major incident of a catastrophic failure of a fuel cell or battery, when it happens it will set the industry back.
4) Nuclear… I’m pro-nuclear, fusion that is. I think fission has a good place in an ever evolving world and the French seem to have “mastered” it for the time being… my hope and desires are that fusion is figured out and that petroleum is relegated to the production of plastic, polymers and the like.
5) Alternative energy sources… I’m not a fan of using wind-farms as a viable long-term solution to the energy problems of the world. It is very niche in my opinion (read: peaking shaving if the conditions are right). Combined with batteries (ala Musk and South Australia) I think it’s “almost” viable in the long-term. I am a fan of sea power however and believe that the Moon has given us a gift by her presence. Tides I believe can be a reliable source of energy and we should concentrate our efforts on creating exotic metals that are anticorrosive to build power stations under the ocean.
6) Coal – what a topic… in my opinion, the only future for coal is gasification or synthesis… period. I know that there a lot of climate change deniers out there and I respect your point of view. My view is that the science is over and the only thing left is the debate over how much of the change is anthropogenic. We can disagree forever, so I feel that in the end it is pointless to argue any more… it would better to agree that if we can take coal and make it better by making it more environmentally friendly and creating more value (i.e. profit) for the owners then fine… let’s do it.
7) Solar panels.. My firm belief is that if you are fortunate enough to be in the greatest solar country in the world (Australia) and you don’t have solar installed, then you deserve to be gouged by the electric companies…
With respect to timing of all this… the US is already transitioning diesel to LNG. T. Boone Pickens has started the trend here in the US, but the change has been hard fought because of the shale revolution… I paid $2.25/gal today for gas (petrol), US$0.62/L or A$0.80/L… eliminating such a cheap source of energy is going to be difficult at best. It’s the revolution that is driving this. Natural gas prices are US $3/GJ (AUD $3.90/GJ), shale gas/oil in action (thanks to hydraulic fracturing). It costs me very little to keep my lights on and the house warm. In contrast, my home in Adelaide cost quite a bit (as in several times more). Electricity is AUD $.10/kwh in Wyoming, thanks again to 1) cheap coal and 2) cheap natural gas. If Australia goes the same way, then it’s be a while before hydrocarbons are supplanted, save the green’s push for control.
In Australia, the revolution is nearing. The only difference is that frac’ing (not fracking ffs…) is being challenged much more than it is here in America. If the ability to stimulate wells progresses unhindered, then Australia will see new industries spring up in the NT, where most of the potentially prolific shales exist. This will allow Australia to meet local demand at a much lower unit cost.
The shale oil revolution in America has “fueled” the ability to distill kerosene, jet fuel and diesel rather than import it. Australia imports 25 gigaliters of these products per year… at $1 wholesale, you do the math… if you can’t, it’s $2,500,000,000,000 per year… if Australia follows global trends (the US started it, but others are following) when there will be a significant delay in the uptake of alternative energy source for transportation.
Comments are always welcome; I’d love to hear other points of view. In some ways I hope I’m wrong. Humanity and history have indicated to me that the majority is selfish and evolution is more likely rather than revolution. Media concentrates on the latter, but the former is the “status quo”…
OIC!