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For solar eclipse chasing, weather forecasting is crucial.
In 2012, I engaged a commercial meteorological forecast company (Weatherwatch) to do the forecasting. They were fantastic.
However for most offshore eclipses, we have to do our own local forecasting in the days prior to the eclipse. We organize & plan our travels and select the general observing location months to years in advance using average climate statistics.
Listed below are general rules of thumb I use when looking at and interpreting forecasting models, not absolute dogma. During a solar eclipse, we have the added local issue of rapid cooling of the atmosphere that none of the models take into account.
1. Divergent Models
If different forecast sites that use different weather models (already listed in other posts) are indicating opposing forecasts, this is an indication that the forecasts are unreliable - could go either way. This may be due to unstable conditions.
2. Flipping Model
Models are published (calculated) at regular intervals (6,12, 24 hourly) If the same model is flipping, changing from fine to clear from publication to publication, this is an indication that the forecasts are unreliable - could go either way. This may again be due to unstable conditions.
3. Consistent Model
If the same model is consistent from publication to publication and give the same or similar forecasts, this is an indication that the forecast is probably more reliable.
4. Convergent Models
If the two different models are convergent and give the same or similar forecasts, this is an indication that the forecast is probably more reliable.
As mentioned different web apps publish data on different scales, different time bases etc and this can make comparison difficult.
I'd welcome hearing others opinions experiences re-the above rules of thumb.
regards
Joe
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