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Old 07-02-2016, 08:50 PM
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pdalek (Patrick)
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Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Melbourne, Australia
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Direct attack against cities is not the main risk.

The detonation of a medium yield device at >100km altitude is not automatically regarded as an attack. Also a "malfunction" could be claimed. The location of N Korea makes direct retaliation problematic.
The damage to unprepared infrastucture, e.g. in Japan, would be $Ts for a launch cost of $100M - damage/cost ratio of 10000.
Additionally, major damage to satellites or disruption of operation would occur over a much wider area. The likely cost is probably similar to that for the general target area.
A high altitude detonation would hurt many countries financially but there is little they can do individually to deter such action.

For a very modest cost, N Korea forces itself into the superpower league, a minor player but one who cannot be ignored.
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