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Re: Possible close passage of 2013 TX68
Joe and anyone else,
I think anyone interested in trying to observe 2013 TX68 has "Buckley's" chance. The 1-sigma uncertainty in the time of closest approach is about 2.5 days and the object could be essentially anywhere in the sky. The nominal orbit has it passing at about 500,000 km. The uncertainty line passes about 17,000 km "above" (to the north of) the Earth, so this is the closest possible distance but it extends about 14,000,000 km in either direction. I reckon that no more than about 10% of the line of uncertainty lies within the Moon's orbit.
It's coming from the Sun-ward side so there is ZERO chance that anyone will pick it up before the closest approach. It MIGHT get picked up by the survey telescopes after it has passed but that will be a bit of a crap shoot. At least it is near New Moon so if the skies are clear, esp in Arizona and Hawaii, it might get found, but by then it will be too faint for the rest of us.
There's really no parallel with 2012 DA14 (now (367943) Duende) in 2013. It came in from the night side (and the south too!) and was recovered from Las Campanas a bit over a month before the passage, with many more observations coming in during the lead-up. We thus knew exactly where to look (as I did) and it was nearly mag 6 just before dawn for us.
News organisations seem to be falling over themselves to stuff-up reporting about 2013 TX68. Even our own Auntie who've described it as a "large" asteroid. Well I guess it is bigger than my house but it is hardly "Armageddon".
Peter Thomas
Oakleigh
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