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Hi Russell,
Right now, there are at least three predictions.
One from IOTA, using UCAC4 positions and DE432 offsets, predicts a shadow from about Darwin to about Port Pirie. (Melbourne is too far south).
Another from the RIO team, using UCAC4 positions, DE413 offsets (which are older than DE432), but with astrometric observations of the target star, predicts from Rockhampton to Auckland. (Includes Melbourne).
A third from the MIT crew, predicts from Melbourne to Antarctica. Melbourne is the northernmost point where the occultation can be seen.
Pluto is around 40AU distant, light takes 4.5 hours to reach here, and an error of 20 milli-arc-seconds in star position will easily cause the variations we see in these predictions.
Moral of the story - observe first, debate later.
My earnest advice to anybody who wants to see a rare bright occultation of Pluto, see the atmosphere effect of Pluto, and perhaps even help out with the New Horizons mission ... observe this occultation. The last mag.12 occultation of Pluto was six years ago.
Regards,
Tony Barry
WSAAG
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