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The price we pay for "electricity" on our bill is mainly transmission and distribution (T&D). Not generation. So we aren't paying for the excess capacity - investors in the unneeded generators are. We're paying because every man and his dog seems to need an airconditioning unit and the network needs to handle the peak demand when they are all turned on at once. In some states there was also a fair amount of overinvestment in T&D, which all ends up in your bill. Also, I think there were expectations of increasing demand which didn't eventuate. Partially this is due to energy efficiency measures. No doubt renewables play a part (and isn't that really the point? displacing carbon intensive generation?) but there are a lot more factors at play.
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