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Narayan, I am amazed at the main stream media who have beat this up. The Facebook page for Tassie aurora has been inundated with people wanting to know the same thing. The fact is that it would take an X3 class flare or higher with long duration to make aurora visible from Sydney. And; importantly the Bz would have to be well negative. An X1.6 class flare while powerful just does not have the energy generally to produce the results forecast around the media. So for next time, look for higher X class and check out the ACE satellite out and for readings with a steep negative Bz. A Kp index of around 8 or 9 would produce visible aurora in the south of Sydney. So being in the red is one thing but it needs to be very strong.
Just by way of example and to finish. In the last cycle Adelaide had one or two events where aurora was visible in the metro area and north of the city. That solar cycle was much more powerful that this cycle. It produced the sort of flares that produced good aurora. And; by contrast the 56-58 maximum produced strong aurora seen in the metro area with colours ranging from green to blue at the top. That cycle was the strongest in the last 100 odd years with a smoothed number of 200 odd. The current cycle is around 70 odd smoothed.
Hope that helps to be informative.
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