Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterEde
Isn't the same as saying we can't explain the lack of warming the last 15 years.
|
No, because the supposed "lack of warming" is statistically insignificant and only restricted to surface temperatures. Over 90% of the heat goes into the oceans (we always knew that), and they continue to warm, as evidenced by Levitus et al.
There is an observed radiative imbalance at the top of atmosphere, more energy arriving than leaving. So unless you believe in fairies, the Earth system has to be warming!
As an aside, an exercise. Go take a surface temperature record. Plot 1971 to 2000. Compute a trendline and extend it forward past 2013.
Then add the 2001 to 2013 data (not used in computing the trend). Report back if you think there is a statistically significant
change in the temperature trend! Does the 1971-2000 trend fit the 2001-2013 data?
This is an exercise where you're not allowed to cherry pick the biggest El Nino on record as a start point...