Quote:
Originally Posted by clive milne
Im not a betting man but if anyone one wants to take even odds,
I've got a thousand bucks on 2014 global average temperatures being above the pre-1976 average....
For the denialistas; If you're not prepared to have a punt on that, why do you expect the rest of humanity to risk its entire future when you lack the strength of your convictions even to that extent?
|
Hi Clive,
That's not a reasonable bet because the more skeptical climate scientists are actually in agreement that if one doubles CO2 content, the black body radiation effect is to increase temperature 1C.
So there are now three schools of thought relating to that 1C.
Computer modellers -
Positive feedback turns that 1C to between 3C or 4.5C
Observational ECS measurers -
Positive feedback turns that 1C to between 1.5C to 2C
Skeptical Climate Scientists -
Negative feedback turns that 1C to 0.5C or less.
So everyone agrees the temperature will go up.
A better bet is to say take a bet on whether in ten years time, the temperature - as measured by a moving average, has or has not increased by 0.2C, as predicted by the modellers.
Regards,
Renato