Quote:
Originally Posted by N1
....what if there is a hiatus in temp increase, and it is because of reduced solar activity/ solar max that doesn't deserve the name? Wouldn't that mean a strong causal link between solar activity and global temperature? And if there is a strong causal link between solar activity and global temp, shouldn't this planet be getting colder right now, like it did in the past during failed solar maxima as some might suggest?
Well, it isn't. It's just slowed its rate of warming. I take that to mean that the sh*t we're in is even deeper than initially thought, because once solar activity returns to higher levels, we might discover that 2014 was actually quite a cold year compared to what's in store  . |
Hi,
Good points. And your question raises a lot more questions than you suspect. And it has been raised by others. One thing though, if there was a connection between sunspots and earth temperature, there would have to be lag effects - you wouldn't expect the planet to start going cold instantaneously.
You have to remember that the IPCC rejected all other possible causes for the increase in temperature from the mid 70s to late 1990s - stuff like that we were just coming out of the Little Ice Age, and this is what you'd expect the temperature to be doing, as well as the associated possible sunspot/global temperature connection. It took as a given that increased C02 was the cause. And all the supercomputer models have that built into them.
If you now accept, that sunspots have something to do with the earth's temperature - and it is demonstrated - then you have a problem with the models, as "
the sh*t we're in" may not have been there in the first place.
The discussion on this matter seems to be all over the place, as you'd expect when there are so many variables. I forget the exact figure, but it is that something like a quarter of all the man-made CO2 that has ever been added to the atmosphere, has been added to it in the last 16 years - during the time of the Hiatus! Which has now raised all sorts of questions about CO2 sensitivity having been overestimated.
I have seen arguments claiming that the cooling effect of the sunspots is masking the horror we would have had from that huge increase in CO2, and when the sun returns to normal, disaster looms. But if one accepts the sunspot cause, it calls into question the accuracy and forecasts of the initial supercomputer models using CO2 as their root basis.
Anyhow, while 95% of the supercomputer models have had their predictions shown as flawed by this Hiatus, two of them haven't - and it will take another five of so years of Hiatus to disprove their predictions, or to show them on track. So, it will be interesting to see if the Hiatus continues, and which way the temperature goes when it ends.
Regards,
Renato