Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Ward
My problem is I can do just a little math. As for being slack...yep..I really haven't got the time to run you through my somewhat ancient and dog-eared undergrad Physics tome, Resnick & Halliday.
You have ignored the previous 130 years of data, and have just focused on the last 15, (an incorrect assumption as stated in the IPCC4 preamble)
A pause/hiatus would be zero.
Hence the "rubbish" statement from me, as a positive number, as much as you want to say otherwise, just isn't zero. Capish?
But assuming we just look at 15 years and Hadcrut 4 decadal data is now the new "norm" at just 0.04 degrees... (which I still maintain is a rubbish number)
....the consequences are not good.
No math required, just do the arithmetic
Humanity has been using written forms for about 6000 years.
The blink of an eye in geological scales. But, let's go forward an equivalent timespan.
600 decades x 0.04 degrees per decade = 24 degrees, making the average temperature a balmy 38 degrees C
Record highs would then be 80 degrees or so....
But taking the IPCC4 view (chapter 2, top page 162) derived from independent datasets, from 1880 to 2012 their "best estimate" trend figure is 0.78 degrees per decade.
But let's not go forward 6000 years...and say go forward about the same time as Ramesses II was building most of the Egyptian monuments in the past....say 1300 years
130 decades x 0.78 = 101 degrees C
I invite others to draw their own conclusions. I'm done with this.
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The waltz and prevarication continues.
Suddenly you put me up as someone who is focusing on 15 years of data and ignoring the previous 130 years of data. And then continue with your sermon.
Again - do you believe or not, that something coined by the IPCC as "The Hiatus", which they address quite a number of times in their 5th Assessment Report, and which I have given you the links to, exists?
You said that what I said - that there was a pause/hiatus - was rubbish. The onus is on you to prove it.
All you have done so far is recite bits of your Creed from your Bible, The Executive Summary, and pretend you have addressed the issue. While at the same time dismissing out of hand all references to the Hiatus in the Working Group Report that led to the creation of your Bible.
Funny how you invite everyone to read the Executive Summary (the one written to make things simple for the policy makers), which leaves out the Hiatus.
Simple question, is there a Hiatus or is there not?
And if not, what superior expertise do you possess to disagree with the IPCC who acknowledge it?
Regards,
Renato
P.S. Exactly what Resnick & Halliday, a physics book published in 1966, has to say about the hiatus in world temperature from 1998 to now, escapes me.