Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Ward
For those who want to read it. the latest report (not some draft or summary) is here:
http://www.climatechange2013.org/ima...er02_FINAL.pdf
Indeed they state the over this short period the trend (0.04 to 0.11 degrees to be accurate) has slowed, it is however still positive.
They also state:
"Even with this “hiatus” in global mean surface temperature trend, the decade of the 2000s has been the warmest in the instrumental record of global mean surface temperature"
Further, the IPCC report has high confidence that with further increases of greenhouses gasses, falls in aerosols, higher solar forcing will see this slowing/hiatus disappear in the near term (the oceans can only suck up so much). |
Wow - you said I spoke rubbish. You said 2GB spoke rubbish. You said the IPCC said no such a thing about "The Hiatus". You cited some wild warming figure which turned out to bear no basis to current reality. And in a post to another member you deride me for not going to the raw source
So I do the work for you and give you links to the even more raw source at the exact same site that you cited, and demonstrate that
a. it is actually you who was totally unaware of what the world's temperature has been doing since 1998, and
b. that the IPCC has indeed acknowledged the "Hiatus" (Dr. Pauchuri apparently slipped up in Melbourne last year and called it a Pause, which was reported in The Australian), and
c. that a temperature increase of 0.72C over nine years would indeed be worrying, except that the rate is 0.04C per decade by Hadcrut4 (the measure they use the most). If you look at the graph below, you'll see that by cherry picking you can get something like 0.7C warming around that period. But that is as relevant as my saying that from that graph from 2006 to 2008, there was a 0.65C cooling (which there was).
The 0.04C per decade figure is so small, that even scientists who are proponents of AGW acknowledge that it is statistically insignificant.
But you respond by dismissing my links from the exact same site without any reason, and instead choose to cite their speculations about future falls in aerosols and higher solar forcings.
Below is a graph of the satellite record. As can be seen, the anomaly for April 2014 is 0.19C.
If you draw a line from 1979 to now, and choose that as you warming trend, then temperatures are increasing. But, if you draw a line from 1998 to now, there is no significant change in temperatures. And observing the latter line, shows that citing several years as among the hottest on record is irrelevant, as it has nothing to do with the trend.
Regards,
Renato
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-conte...il_2014_v5.png