Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Ward
Where did you get that from???
Section 2, Observations: Atmosphere and Surface
page 162,
states the temperature increase for: "the 2003– 2012 period is 0.78 [0.72 to 0.85] °C "
They also stress:
"Owing to natural variability, trends based on short records are very sensitive to the beginning and end dates and do not in general reflect long-term climate trends"
You can spin that into a zero, but you'd be misrepresenting the facts.
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Where did I get this from?
Well, one can spend four or five minutes doing the following.
Search for "5th Assessment Report" in Google, and one finds the Assessment report here.
http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/
One then types "Hiatus" into the search box, which delivers these two documents which address the Hiatus (well, try make excuses for it anyway - but admit it they do in fact do).
http://www.climatechange2013.org/ima...ner15paris.pdf
http://www.climatechange2013.org/ima..._Chapter09.pdf
One then waits a couple of minutes while the files are downloaded. Then one uses the Adobe Find feature, and types in "Hiatus" to read all about the Hiatus you claim I made up when I said the IPCC said there was one.
There you can read stuff like,
"
Box 9.2: Climate Models and the Hiatus in Global-Mean Surface Warming of the Past 15 Years
The observed global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has shown a much smaller increasing linear trend
over the past 15 years than over the past 30 to 60 years (Section 2.4.3, Figure 2.20, Table 2.7; Figure 9.8;
Box 9.2 Box 9.2 Figure 1a,c). Depending on the observational data set, the GMST trend over 1998–2012 is
estimated to be around one-third to one-half of the trend over 1951–2012 (Section 2.4.3, Table 2.7; Box 9.2
Figure 1a,c). For example, in HadCRUT4 the trend is 0.04 ºC per decade over 1998–2012, compared to 0.11
ºC per decade over 1951–2012. The reduction in observed GMST trend is most marked in Northern-
Hemisphere winter (Section 2.4.3, (Cohen et al., 2012))."
So you read 0.78 degrees increase over 2003-2012 in the report, and I read 0.04 degrees per decade over 1998-2012 in the report, in a section on the Hiatus.
As I said, if you don't like the IPCC addressing "
the Hiatus in Global-Mean Surface Warming of the Past 15 Years" in their report, go complain to them.
Regards,
Renato