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Aurora tonight
Get those batteries charged
The NOAA has forecast the CME to arrive between 6-9UTC. This corresponds to 4-6pm AEDT.
They are expecting it to generate G2-G3 geomagnetic storms - ie. Kp 6-7. This is relatively strong and should it occur will result in some fairly strong auroral activity.
However, it's important to note that there is always a large amount of uncertainty in both timing and strength in these forecasts. Usually the timing is given a +/- 10 hour caviat, and often the activity can lack the expected strength. The forecasts usually quote the maximum impact as they are intended to allow spacecraft operators warning to protect their hardware.
Here is the expected Kp breakdown:
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 08-Jan 10 2014
Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10
00-03UT 3 3 7 (G3)
03-06UT 3 2 6 (G2)
06-09UT 1 7 (G3) 5 (G1)
09-12UT 1 7 (G3) 4
12-15UT 2 6 (G2) 4
15-18UT 2 5 (G1) 3
18-21UT 3 6 (G2) 3
21-00UT 3 6 (G2) 3
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