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bojan
23-10-2012, 10:30 AM
It seems we are slowly accepting the middle-age attitude towards scientists.. or is this just a matter of greater responsibility for their job in relation to the the community paying for it?

http://www.businessinsider.com/italian-seismologists-six-years-prison-2012-10
http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110914/full/477264a.html

ZeroID
23-10-2012, 11:15 AM
Earthquake prediction is an inexact science at best. :rolleyes:
Another article I read said Italy has scores of swarm earthquakes on an ongoing basis. Picking which one is the precursor to something bigger would be impossible.
It's the same as the people over here asking when will the Christchurch aftershocks stop ....... they are up to over 1300 now ... and still counting :shrug:
Research and knowledge is dangerous apparently :sadeyes:

AndrewJ
23-10-2012, 12:56 PM
Just heard about this on the midday news.
It does make you wonder how long before the bored ambulance chasers in the legal system will take science back to the dark ages.
And my funny take on this process of "dumbing down" of science
is
If you survived, you thank your god for protecting you,
but if you are injured of killed, you get a lawyer and sue the scientists.
Who would bother to put out information anymore?????

Andrew

jjjnettie
23-10-2012, 01:15 PM
I knew this hearing was coming up and hoped that common sense would prevail.
The repercussions of this will affect any predictions of natural phenomena. The weather reports on radio and tv will have to change, every evening they will have to warn of possible tornado's, thunderstorms, blizzards and heat waves.
Seismologists will have to warn the public every day of a possible mag 9 earthquake. The people are going to be in a constant state of panic. And then I suppose they will sue them for the stress they are causing.
It's a war against science.
The irrationality of this whole situation is doing my head in.

AstralTraveller
23-10-2012, 01:29 PM
"Wolf, wolf, wolf ... I said wol.. oh dear another one eaten."

From this distance the verdict looks like a major deposit of organic fertilizer.

bojan
23-10-2012, 01:29 PM
Well, lawyers will definitely be VERY busy.. (and rich).

blink138
23-10-2012, 04:09 PM
the fact is the scientists basically said the people would DEFFINATELY be safe!
i saw a man on the news that lost his whole family
he said for many decades when the "grumblings" came that the whole village would sleep outside where they were for some reason safe
the scientists said that it was not necessary to sleep outside as the pressure was just being released which was a good thing!
the scientists either directly said it was going to be safe or the village was given that impression
pat

Davi5678
23-10-2012, 04:30 PM
The Italian justice system isn't a exactly a model of fairness and equity, much like their political system. This won't have global repercussions for scientists.

blink138
23-10-2012, 04:49 PM
i think on the contrary! this may just set a precedent, as the very people we trust to make life or death decisions will become accountable.
i mean, how can a seismologist say that an event will deffinately not happen.
the whole world knows that at best seismological activity seems to be governed by chaos.... somebody just needs to remind seismologists!
i think this is going to be bad...... but only for the science of seismology
pat

Colin_Fraser
23-10-2012, 05:58 PM
It's not about predicting earthquakes!
Excerpts the articles in the links provided in the original post.


and the scientists
and

Clearly not doing the job entrusted to them.

TrevorW
23-10-2012, 06:12 PM
Next we will be blaming the meteorologists for not getting the weather right

"hey man, I'm going to sue you for anxiety and stress as a result of my picnic being ruined by rain when you said it was going to be fine"

Earthquakes are as unpredictable as the weather IMO

andyc
23-10-2012, 06:27 PM
Well, Italy has just lost itself any prospect of decent monitoring of geophysical hazards for the foreseeable future. Residents of Naples and Catania and elsewhere can settle down to having stuff all understanding of the potential risks they are living under. They may as well ask the lawyers what the state of Vesuvius or Etna is, as any decent geologist or geophysicist is going to be fleeing from Italian research. A massive step backwards.

People can pretend they can pass the buck when things go bad, but it will be a whole lot worse if they wilfully neglect the best understanding we have of natural systems, be they climate, weather or geophysics. Medieval-scale understanding, here we come. :(

bojan
23-10-2012, 06:47 PM
Not necessarily...
usually, scientists offer the information at their hand, it is up to local government officials to do something with it.
To my understanding of the situation as presented in articles, the correct information was where their responsibility stopped, and someone else was supposed to take over.

BTW, the pressure from community (and establishment - this is visible from comments) to "punish" them was huge.. so it really looks like as lynch, approved and executed by court.

multiweb
23-10-2012, 07:03 PM
That's nuts. :shrug: This is only going to achieve on thing. No kid's going to want to be learning for a scientific career. Too much liability. In the long run it will be disastrous. This reminds me of a discussion I had with a surgeon telling me how high insurance premiums were because of lawsuits. He said that there was already a lack of skilled specialists in his field because new students would go for lower risk jobs and qualifications. As a result there was no renewal and a lack of competent people in his field. Everyone wants to be a dentist. More money and no hassle.

Larryp
23-10-2012, 07:28 PM
Everyone wants to be a dentist? More money and no hassle? I don't think so! I have been a dentist for 45 years, and in that time I have seen professional indemnity insurance rise from a minimal amount to a significant percentage of my income. Dentists have the same problems with patients as medicos do. We live in a very litigation oriented society, spurred on by a legal profession hell bent on lining its pockets at the expense of other professions-just look at their advertisements offering to sue someone on your behalf!
I am semi-retired now and in a couple of years I will be fully retired-thankfully! Would I become a dentist if I was starting a career again?-Hell,no! Too much legal crap and government interference.
And no, I have never been sued!

bojan
23-10-2012, 07:42 PM
I think everyone wants to be a lawyer :P

Irish stargazer
23-10-2012, 07:44 PM
Lets sue all the astrologers for getting my horoscope wrong. Hell, I paid money for that book and they didn't get one thing right:rolleyes:
In ancient times they used to execute astrologers for getting it wrong, now it will be scientists. Back to the days of smallpox, fortune tellers and fundamentalism.:(
I sincerely hope this verdict is overturned. They didn't jail the politicians and their economists that botched up the economy in Europe even when they told us all was well. :mad2::mad2:

AndrewJ
23-10-2012, 08:08 PM
I think a lot of it also comes down to the cost of acting/not acting on the data provided. I agree with Bojan that its not the scientists job, but the politicians.
They are the ones paid to look at all the data ( both scientific and sociological ) and make balanced decisions based on all available information.
Just look at Fukushima as a recent example.
Scientists said the risk of a certain magnitude earthquake needed to be taken into account in the design, but it sounds like it didnt meet with the cost benefit analysis required to put the reactors into "profitable" operation.
As such, they were designed "as a system" to a lesser specification and the worst case scenario happened.

The scientists are only one part of the chain, but seem to be the first to be strung up.

Andrew

JB80
23-10-2012, 08:15 PM
Here in Belgium they were going to do just that, although from as far as I can tell their issue was more that they didn't like the predictions that were made despite them being pretty much spot on.

Davi5678
23-10-2012, 08:26 PM
There are still two appeals processes to go through and they won't be jailed during that. It will likely take years. Hopefully at some point common sense will prevail.
Italy's political and judicial system is fairly corrupt and this is a just an attempt to create a scape goat, most likely by the local government for failing to take action sooner.
The global reaction in the media is all the evidence you need to see this won't become a precedent to attack science and scientists around the world.

Barrykgerdes
23-10-2012, 08:36 PM
With decisions like that. It won't be long before people buying new telescopes will be getting sued for causing rain on star parties!:lol:

Barry

AndrewJ
23-10-2012, 08:41 PM
Gday Dave



Funny how the lawyers will still continue to banquet whilst the scientists suffer.
Why the hell has it even been allowed to get to this stage?????
The precedent now set by this successful application of legal action to the lack of undersanding of natural "phenomena", will probably now prevent the free and fair provision/distribution of "data", as scientists wonder if it is now "safe" to present their current "imperfect" findings.
Its an absolute travesty that will come back to bite us all
( At which time we will probably go and get a lawyer:rofl:
and they will get some new tyres for their Bentleys )

Andrew

alocky
23-10-2012, 09:16 PM
My reading (admittedly via New Scientist) was that the eathquakes hazards guys had prefaced the statement with, 'while we can't rule out the possibility of a large quake', before going on to say that the series of small shocks was normal. It seems that there was also a 'free agent' earthquake predictor who got it half right as well, right time, but wrong place, and this has provoked further criticism of the real pros.
Given that the backbone of Italy, the Apennines, is an uplifted fold and thrust belt above an active subduction zone with extensional tectonics to the west and compression to the east, it's a very unhappy chunk of continental lithosphere. Only a fool would say that a massive quake wasn't 'imminent', and those guys aren't fools. Unfortunately a gesocientist's idea of imminent isn't the same as a local politician's, and we can only imagine the pressure on them not to trigger mass panic everytime they go near a TV camera.
Sadly, despite several proposed mechanisms for 'precursor' events, like EM pulses or patterns of microseisms, nobody has accurately predicted an earthquake on timescales less than a decade. Just when it looks like we've figured one fault system out, the earth breaks along a previously unmapped fault, so strain monitoring isn't working out very well either.
Still - I guarantee nobody will get any grants to further the research after this triumph of sophistry over science.
cheers,
Andrew.

Danack
24-10-2012, 03:07 AM
I've been trying to find exactly what the scientists said, and what they were accused of, but the reporting is terrible. My best understanding is that the events were:

1) Scientists meet, analyze the data and come to the conclusion that the tremors "don't provide any evidence of increased risk" but there are no other conclusions about the likelihood of an earthquake.

2) Civil defense guy says on the scientists behalf "There is no risk, it is safe to stay inside".

3) People in the village usually slept outside if there were any tremors, but because they had been told there was 'no risk of an earthquake' they didn't.

Obviously there is a different between "no evidence of increased risk" to "it's definitely safe".

However, it still sounds like they're being used as scapegoats in place of the builders who constructed substandard buildings that didn't meet earthquake resistance standards.

Irish stargazer
24-10-2012, 06:33 AM
It's no worse than the economists who didn't see the GFC coming which put millions out of work and out of their homes. It was far more predictable.
Or the banks that lent money to people who couldn't pay it back telling everyone that it is OK.

AstralTraveller
24-10-2012, 10:22 AM
I'm also unsure exactly what happened but this morning SMH referred to 'miscommunication', which stacks up pretty well against what Dan and Andrew say. How often do we hear of scientific statements being misconstrued? Too often IMHO (global warming anyone).

John, I think the analogy would be more like the banks lubricating the faults, jumping up and down on them a few times and then selling off the land as prime real estate. The GFC was a totally human construct bought about by speculative investments and dishonest assessments by institutions who had more money on their hands than they could responsibly use. The criminality involved dwarfs anything these scientists could achieve even if they were deliberately malicious - which of course they aren't.

sjastro
24-10-2012, 03:38 PM
Isn't it ironic that here we have a case of scientists being imprisoned over supposedly not divulging information, yet in the case for global warming climate scientists have been anything but ambiguous over the data. Yet these poor individuals are accused of everything from scaremongering, to falsifying the data, to plotting sending the human race back to the stone age.:lol:

The middle-ages attitude towards scientists is very much alive and kicking.

Regards

Steven

Colin_Fraser
24-10-2012, 05:24 PM
That's not entirely true. They are being imprisoned because their negligence and indifference attributed to the deaths of more than 300 people.

bojan
24-10-2012, 05:53 PM
That's what the court decided ...
But the truth may be far from that. We shall see - there will be appeal, for sure.

supernova1965
24-10-2012, 06:36 PM
The way I see it is if this kind off thing became the norm that scientists will just stop trying to predict these things and then a lot more people will die. The Italians have gone back to the days when it was your death to say that the Earth circled the sun:screwy:

Aidan
24-10-2012, 07:18 PM
'tis a very sad day.

And people wonder why i spend my time looking for intelligent life elsewhere...

sjastro
24-10-2012, 07:33 PM
If the scientists are "negligent" or "indifferent" then the same can be said for local governments issuing building permits in earthquake prone areas or engineers designing structures that are not earthquake proof?
Have any local government officials or engineers been sent to prison?

Many more people died in the Christchurch earthquake of 2011 which was an aftershock of the 2010 earthquake. No scientists have been prosecuted or imprisoned to my knowledge, yet aftershocks are very common, perhaps being more predictable than the swarm of small earthquakes preceding the large quake scenario that occurred in Italy.

As much as I dislike to make unsubstantiated conclusions one cannot help but think that the scientists have been made the scapegoats.

Regards

Steven

Irish stargazer
24-10-2012, 08:36 PM
I think you nailed the issue there David.
Unless the scientists deliberately went out of their way to conceal that an earthquake was imminent (payed off for example) there is no way they can be
charged.

Barrykgerdes
24-10-2012, 08:43 PM
The moral of this story don't trust the Italian "justice" system.

Barry

GrahamL
24-10-2012, 09:14 PM
What a mess and such a tragic one to!

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-24/scientists-jailed-over-earthquake-had-case-to-answer-says-expert/4332092

personally I don't think they deserve jail time, but there does seem to be a hint there that this isn't just about failing to predict an earthquake, a govt official not being able to weezal out of blame makes me wonder if these guys got roped into a situation they should never of been in, the REAL reality of all this risk management crap that we endlessly get drilled with has nothing to do with making the world a safer place imo , its about aportioning blame away from were responsibility really lies ... in this case local govt ..town planners ,, disaster management .. etc..etc.

ZeroID
25-10-2012, 08:21 AM
You got it ...

AstralTraveller
25-10-2012, 08:38 AM
:rofl::rofl::rofl:

Baddad
25-10-2012, 08:44 AM
From Nightstalker,

a govt official not being able to weezal out of blame makes me wonder if these guys got roped into a situation they should never of been in

Hi,:)
This smacks of the govt blaming a scapegoat. Perhaps to avoid a class action?

I agree with Nightstalker

Cheers

cybereye
25-10-2012, 08:48 AM
As a Geologist/Geophysicist I'd like to comment on this thread but my lawyer has advised against it. ;)

Mario

Larryp
25-10-2012, 09:35 AM
:rofl::rofl::rofl:

bojan
25-10-2012, 10:03 AM
A friend of mine commented on another forum something like below (translation into English is a bit loose and free, as I tried to keep the essence of what he meant):

"For condemnation is the very creation of such farcical institutions (this committee for disasters and so on), which, due to an unpredictable nature of earthquakes, can't do anything about the very reason it was created.
Yet it has an aura of knowledge and authority, thus sending a wrong message to plebs, as if those unfortunate events could be put under some sort of control.
The responsibility of those people involved (scientists and officials) is in the fact that they embarked into something like this."

BTW, the whole situation actually remind me somewhat of "Black Saturday" and associated events in Victoria couple of years ago, when 173 people died.

sjastro
25-10-2012, 12:18 PM
The upshot of this decision is that the Italian court has inadvertently proclaimed seismology to be an "exact" science and the loss of life is based on human factors such as poor judgement, incompetence, deception etc



An interesting quote given it is a textbook definition for an "inexact" science.
Like climate science, seismology has mechanisms that can impose positive or negative feedback on a system. The key is to determine which is the stronger feedback.
For example the "swarm of small earthquakes" leading to the chances of a major earthquake (the standard line) could just as well have resulted in a reduction in the build up of internal stresses, thereby reducing the chances.

Predicting the correct outcome is not as straightforward as the Italian courts would seem to suggest.

Regards

Steven

alocky
25-10-2012, 10:31 PM
There's still plenty of good science that can be applied without actually predicting the earthquake. Geohazard mapping can identify those areas more prone to liquefaction (when wet sand turns to runny goo after a good shake) and where the subsurface may cause local intensification of the ground roll. Presumably that's what these guys were meant to be doing!
cheers - Andrew.
Now for some reason our corporate lawyer wants a chat... thanks a lot, Mario...:lol:

Danack
26-10-2012, 01:27 AM
My understanding is that it's the other way around i.e. The civil defense guy speaking on behalf of the scientists said there was no risk, and it was definitely safe for people to be in their houses, which lead people to go back inside trusting the guys word.

What he should have said they didn't know if there was any extra risk, and it was up to people to decide whether to go back inside or not.

sjastro
26-10-2012, 09:11 AM
As with any court case it depends on whether you agree with the prosecution or defense point of view.
According to the defense view the now infamous meeting was held partly to dispel fears that an earthquake was imminent rather than the accepted 2% probablity that a swarm of small earthquakes would lead to a larger quake.
This is based on the peer reviewed paper.
http://www.bssaonline.org/content/78/4/1538.abstract

The fear of an imminent earthquake was based on the following.



If the prosecution view is correct, the science only forms part of the risk assessment process, it should not be the sole basis of the assessment.

Regards

Steven

Waxing_Gibbous
26-10-2012, 10:52 AM
This seems too preposterous to be true!
I shall investigate!
Italy seemed pretty science-friendly from 18 months I lived there and while certainly open to financial incentives, the Italian judiciary is usually pretty sensible.

avandonk
26-10-2012, 11:21 AM
Dead correct Bojan! It is someone to blame that the victims are looking for.

It was 49.7C with 100km/hr Northerly winds and a relative humidity of 0% in my backyard after a very long drought on Black Saturday. Who would have thought that a bushfire would spread at unprecedented speeds. This situation was totally predictable and was.

Any future earthquake cannot be predicted by any current methods.

It all reeks of the ignorance of people who have faith in the supernatural and then blame the nearest earthly scapegoat! At least the ignorati do not come for you with pitchforks and bit of burning at the stake these days in advanced? countries but with lawyers and equally ignorant judges.

I did not die of my cancer. It was all due to the lack of effective treatment by my oncologist!

Bert

richardda1st
26-10-2012, 05:12 PM
I did not die of my cancer. It was all due to the lack of effective treatment by my oncologist!

Bert[/QUOTE]


Sorry to hear of your passing away Bert, you will be missed.:sadeyes:

Never mind.
Cheers anyway

AndrewJ
27-10-2012, 08:12 AM
Just listening to the morning news ( re the Italian Justice system )
If you want to be a scientist in Italy, its safe as houses,
just make sure you are over 70 years of age :-)
( Mr Berlusconi, ( ex PM ), who featured in an earlier cartoon, has just been found guilty on one of his many charges. He was sentenced to 4 years jail, but when he was PM he got through a law that you cant jail people over 70.
Guess who is older than 70 :-) )

Andrew

sjastro
27-10-2012, 09:38 AM
With the stresses put on Italian scientists I doubt many of them will reach the age of 70.
Evidently it's possible you can also be prosecuted for issuing earthquake alerts that don't eventuate but lead to public panic.:shrug:

Who the hell can work under such conditions like that.

Regards

Steven

astroron
27-10-2012, 11:44 AM
A few years ago here in Queensland, a Cyclone warning was given for some of the holiday isle's to evacuate, when the Cyclone did not effect those islands, they where screaming for compensation for the lost customers:screwy:
So even though it wasn't Scientists as such, the BOM and other agencies where given a bit of a rough time:rolleyes:
Still happens when things like freak storms occur and they blame the BOM for not telling them.:shrug:
Cheers:thumbsup:

sjastro
27-10-2012, 01:22 PM
In case you thought the non Earth Sciences were "immune" to the Italian courts, we now have the "Autism is caused by vaccination" debate reopened.

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/italian-court-reignites-mmr-vaccine-debate-after-award-over-child-with-autism-7858596.html

Regards

Steven

Colin_Fraser
27-10-2012, 05:04 PM
Well certainly not the people who perished.

AndrewJ
27-10-2012, 07:16 PM
Gday Colin



I hope the next time you have to go to a hospital,
with something odd wrong with you, they dont say,
"Im sorry, the science isnt good enough yet for me to
give you an opinion"

It wasnt the "fault" of the seismologists.

Wonder what would have happened if it was
the parish priest who said it will all be OK :question:

Andrew

sjastro
27-10-2012, 07:40 PM
Given these poor people died as result of the collapsing of structures why not proportion the blame on individuals associated with the constructions, such as the structural and soil engineers, the builders, even the town planners.
And while we at it why we don't we blame the local population for living in earthquake prone areas.

The idea you can pigeon hole culpability on a small group of individuals who at the very best produce a model that states that 98% of the times a major quake would not have occurred, who have no control on building codes, population density and a host of other variables that can impact on casualties, is nothing more than a blatant exercise of looking for a scapegoat.

The point is there is no one to blame.

Steven

Colin_Fraser
27-10-2012, 08:40 PM
Yes you are probably correct there. I was in hospital in May 1951 when I was born. Haven't been back since then.
Good chance the next time I go is on my last day on Earth :lol:

Colin_Fraser
27-10-2012, 09:09 PM
The city is very old. Some building were hundreds of years old. Doubt if they are still alive. Some newer buildings that collapsed may have been built to the regulations at that time.
If deliberate shortcuts were taken as a cost saving measures, then yes, they have a case to answer.
The judges beg to differ.
The Italian justice system have conducted 3 years of investigations. I think they know more about the situation than what you may read in the tabloids.

joe_smith
27-10-2012, 10:06 PM
Please Note: I am not against people being vaccinated, I even get the flu shot like all good citizen's and believe they do more good then harm. or condone the sentences of scientists even if some do deserve (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/02/science/study-finds-fraud-is-widespread-in-retracted-scientific-papers.html?_r=1) it. I post this counter argument for this debate, in support of the other view, just to keep the thread even.


MMR vaccine causes autism' claim banned (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/children_shealth/9460914/MMR-vaccine-causes-autism-claim-banned.html)

This article is good in saying why its banned but what dose this part in it mean?

(underling is mine)

So is there some truth to the question "Can vaccination cause Autism?" from the above quotes?

How do they tell who is in the subgroup? are they warned or tested? how would YOU feel if you had a normal healthy child before being vaccinated then after being vaccinated starts to show signs of autism? what would your view be?
Its easy to sit back and judge people for their actions from the comfort of our own save haven, looking in from the out side. But I bet the people saying "How stupid they are" would have a different point of view holding their own child in their hands that was healthy before being vaccinated. Or digging their dead family from the ruins of their safe haven that seismologists allegedly said "would be OK",



Do you mean scientists are above the law or not bound by them? If they make comments or their actions had a negative effect that directly affected peoples lives shouldn't they be held accountable? if that quote is true then why have seismologists? and why should we listen to them? where is their credibility? Why do scientists that study earthquakes ask for our money so they can keep looking for a way to predict earthquakes when the majority view held here is "its 100% impossible to name the day and time a big one will hit?" are seismologists that are trying to find a way to predict earthquakes doing science or pseudoscience?
For me, its no different then me saying I might be able give you the winning lotto numbers 5,15,25,27,36,41? we just need more money for research. Wouldn't the money be better kept for when a earthquake actually hits? Note: lotto numbers may or may not be true

sjastro
28-10-2012, 03:50 AM
The Wikipedia article for the 2009 Earthquake in L'Aquila paints a somewhat different picture.





Yes there is a case to answer.
Once again from Wikipedia.




Remember the Italian justice system has the benefit of hindsight, the scientists did not have that luxury.
While the system had 3 years of investigation, the science has been around a lot longer, nearly 15 years since the peer reviewed paper indicated the precursor conditions are not a reliable indicator for predicting major earthquakes. While the official line is that the scientists were not prosecuted for their predictions or rather the lack of it, the fact is that their function. They are not risk assessors.

The Wikipedia article only reinforces the case of the scientists being the scapegoats in particular when no charges were laid over the poor building standards.

Steven

sjastro
28-10-2012, 05:45 AM
Perhaps the good doctor is covering his back given these days scientists can be sued or imprisoned, or a small percentage of the population does in fact have a genetic disposition to react differently to the vaccine. What it doesn't mean is that the vaccine causes autism in the general population.



Or alternatively your child dies from the very disease the vaccination was designed to prevent but was not given.
The emotive argument runs both ways doesn't it.



Another emotive argument.



No one is above the law, the question is the law equally applied to all.
Evidently not so in the Italian justice system. Apparently building a sub standard structure that collapses and kills people doesn't lead to prosecution.
Seriously who is more culpable the builder who takes shortcuts or the seismologist?
Seismology incidentally is the study of earthquakes of which earthquake prediction is a small subset of the science. The fact is earthquake prediction is highly unreliable, only the Italian justice system seems to think otherwise.

As one goes from the physical to the biological and earth sciences you will find the "predictive powers" of the sciences diminishes.

Steven

AndrewJ
28-10-2012, 07:18 AM
Why study Cancer??? ( they want more money than the seismologists )
Why study anything.
Why not Just live in caves and "hope" all goes well?????

It not possible to understand earthquakes "at present"
Most "research" is done because we dont know/understand things,
and until we do, scientists/doctors etc do "research".
The first few heart/major organ transplants didnt go so well,
but now are commonplace.
The study of DNA was very poor in its early days, but the benefits of continued study are now flowing in all directions ( some good some bad )
Until its a confirmed science, you just treat the data with the degree of scepticism warranted, but you dont suppress the data.
This ruling will eventually suppress data,
and that wont help anyone.

Andrew

Colin_Fraser
28-10-2012, 01:07 PM
Until you understand IT IS NOT ABOUT PREDICTIONS OR LACK OF, this will go nowhere.




It does not reinforce that at all. The following suggests investigations are continuing

another wikipedia quote


If the engineers/builders had been investigated first, then it would be them to wrongly claim they are the scapegoats.
The ongoing investigation may even find others in the government may have some blame apportioned to them. Time will tell.

sjastro
28-10-2012, 07:06 PM
One can't even claim there are some nuances in the judgement, the inconsistencies in the judgment are quite obvious.
If you want to be sheep like and blindly accept the standard line that's your prerogative, but don't impose it on others.

Your quotes only reinforce the inconsistencies.

For example...


Part of the local and international furore over of the decision is on the very point of risk assessment. When does a seismologist's responsibilities include risk assessment of "the density of the urban population and the known fragility of many ancient buildings in the city centre"?
Why have the urban planners and engineers that shoulder this process not been prosecuted as well?
Explain to me the relationship between public policy and seismology?



That was back in 2009.
This is from livescience.com Oct 22 2012







This is going around in circles.
In case you missed it the response is to this.
http://www.iceinspace.com.au/forum/showpost.php?p=908456&postcount=45

Here the issue is on "risk communication" as opposed to "risk assessment".
If the scientists or civil defense individual poorly communicated the information on Giuliani's work resulting in misinterpretation then they deserve a kick up the backside or at worse being fired but definitely not a jail sentence.



This is an argument based on a logical fallacy "argumentum ad ignoratiam" or appeal to ignorance. Unless you show me your crystal ball that indicates this I refuse to believe it.

Steven

space oddity
28-10-2012, 07:16 PM
It was rather stupid to say definately no risk. Such a bold statement is going to give false hope, so some sort of punishment is valid. Does rather remind me of a certain Climate Commissioner and the predictions that even if rain fell, it would not swell the river systems and dams. On the basis of these alarmist claims, Sydney has the expensive white elephant of a 2 billion dollar plus desalination plant. Do note, this certain fellow is NOT a climate scientist.So certain were the predictions that I believe he is personally partially responsible and as such requires prosecution. Severe punishments should also be handed down to those who manipulate science for political or personal gain.

"Nothing so sullies the integrity of humanity as the subversion of science for the servitude of politics."- Space Oddity.

Colin_Fraser
29-10-2012, 10:40 AM
:lol: That's so funny. Ignore all the facts and prefer to believe in my crystal ball predictions :rofl:

andyc
29-10-2012, 11:28 AM
Risk management cuts both ways. Would you prefer the scenario where no desal plant was built and droughts had continued? Do you complain that the seatbelts or side-impact bars in your car are unnecessary expense and weight because they are almost never used? Are you going to be similarly dismissive the next time there is a drought (and there will be, sooner or later)?

We can experiment with how cities with growing populations in excess of 4 million cope with severe water shortages, but it is much more prudent to prepare for the difficulties rather than imagine that they will never happen, especially when observations indicate otherwise. With greater evaporation in a warming world and an enhanced hydrological cycle (this has already been observed), we expect the wet years to be wetter, and importantly, the dry years to be drier and hotter. That's a physical reality that Sydney and Melbourne need to plan for. We've had a run of La Ninas, and so the last few years have been wet, and it's fair to say unusually wet. What do you think will happen with the next run of El Ninos? One day you'll be glad of the desal plant, just like the seatbelts ... it just so happens that today is not the day.

sjastro
29-10-2012, 11:33 AM
You are on a roll with the logical fallacies.
Now it's the straw man argument.