Watching the Weather in Cairns

[Phil Hart]

With about three weeks to go, I figure it's time to start monitoring the daily weather in the Cairns region to support optimal decision making for the eclipse itself. The build-up to the wet season will be further progressed in three weeks time, but current weather patterns are already well worth watching. My primary interest though is comparing the cloud models over the next few weeks to the actual weather, so that we have a better idea how much faith to place in them on the evening of 13th November!

The three cloud forecasts I reference are:

BoM Access Model: http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/ljr/projects/Forcs/ani_a.html

US GFS Model via Skippy Sky: http://skippysky.com.au/Australia/ (Andrew has even setup a Cairns area chart)

European Model via yr.no: http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Queensland/Cairns~2172797/hour_by_hour_detailed.html

More details about cloud forecasts in general here: http://philhart.com/content/cloud-forecasts-australian-astronomers

I'll try to make this same report for as many days as I can, but perhaps others can fill in when I miss out. Observations from anybody in the area especially welcome, otherwise I am relying on the satellite and radar images and the Cairns webcam (http://www.cairnsinfo.com/webcam.php).

Friday 19th October


Synoptic Situation: SE winds. High pressure centred well east of NSW with ridge up to FNQ.
BoM Forecast (http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/northtropicalcoast.shtml): Scattered light showers about the coast and ranges, mainly during the morning and evening. Moderate SE winds.
Observed Weather: Overcast (low cloud), showers.

Cloud Forecasts


BoM Access Model: Quite good match on extent of low cloud.
Skippy Sky: Shows lots of high cloud over FNQ that is not present. Shows some low cloud but poor match on its extent.
EU: Quite good match for Port Douglas/Mt Carbine etc.

Chance of success


Coast: <5% chance
80km Inland: <10% chance

Phil

[h0ughy]

be good to see this out Phil

[gary]

Hi Phil,

Thanks for starting the reports. I have been independently watching.

Lucky today is not the 14th of Nov.

You might like to add to your portfolio of resources the wonderful set of
wide-angle, sky pointing web cams sited on Gorge Creek Orchards farm
10km west of Mareeba and belonging to IIS member "Cyclone".

Cyclone also monitors other weather parameters and even has a broadcast
every 15 minutes on UHF for the benefit of those within a 30km radius of
the Mareeba area.

See http://www.gorgecreekorchards.com.au/

[cyclone]

Thanks Gary, soon i will be adding webcams in other location in the path of totality, stay tuned...... ( remember my trips to Mt Carbine ??)

[Phil Hart]

thanks houghy/gary and especially cyclone.. that's a nice set of webcams!

Saturday 20th October
Synoptic Situation: SE winds. Broad high pressure ridge over FNQ,
Forecast: Isolated showers about the coast and ranges, mainly during the morning. Mostly moderate SE winds.
Observed Weather: Extensive patchy cloud offshore but Cairns and most of the way to Port Douglas in a gap just big enough to catch the eclipse. Not the kind of satellite image you'd like to see on eclipse morning though. Small patches of cloud around the ranges may have impeded view for some even 60km inland.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: As this is a 'synthetic' infrared image, low cloud is a little hard to discern in early morning hours. After stretching the image, low cloud is indicated around the coast but hard to tell the extent.
Skippy Sky: Extensive low cloud beginning immediately offshore. High cloud inland around northern side of eclipse track (which was again not actually present).
EU: 50% low cloud at coast, dropping to 20% well inland.

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~70%
60km Inland: ~70%

[xstream]

Funny thing here is the locals say the storm season starts when the Jacaranda's loose their flowers.
Still in full bloom here, so fingers crossed they hold out for another 24 days.

[cyclone]

starting tomorrow i will be adding timelapse AVI's (1 hour before sunrise to 8am) with Mareeba tomorrow, Cairns from Monday and hopefully Mt Carbine from Wednesday. go to my solar eclipse webpage

[Phil Hart]

Sunday 21st October
Synoptic Situation: SE winds. Broad high pressure ridge over FNQ.
Forecast: Isolated light showers about the coast and ranges, mainly north of Cairns. Moderate SE'ly winds, fresh and gusty during the day north of Cairns.
Observed Weather: Extensive patchy cloud offshore, extending around 30km inland in northern area of eclipse track. Clear inland of Cairns.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Patchy low cloud offshore, some pushing a little inland but more so north of eclipse area.
Skippy Sky: Areas of low cloud SE and south of Cairns and one small area north of Port Douglas. Otherwise clear.
EU: Clear in Cairns, 70% low cloud Port Douglas. 5% (Mt Gibson) to 30% (Mt Carbine) low cloud inland.

On this occasion, an average of the three cloud models (all broadly similar) would have been a pretty reasonable indication of weather on the day.

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~30-40%
60km Inland: ~80% (a lot less closer to the ranges)

[Phil Hart]

I'm having trouble playing the Mareeba one at the minute.. i think you can afford to decrease the resolution a bit for a weather cam.. might make things easier?

Phil

[cyclone]

please try again

[cyclone]

I've added a second weather cam, located in Cairns please goto my solar eclipse web page

[Phil Hart]

Monday 22nd October
Synoptic Situation: Broad area of high pressure over SEQ. Isobars well spread out with ESE airflow over FNQ.
Forecast: Isolated morning showers about the coast and ranges, mainly north of Cairns. Light to moderate S to SE winds, fresh and gusty about the coast north of Cairns during the day.
Observed Weather: Extensive and quite solid low cloud offshore, pushing 30km+ inland. A little high cloud offshore as well.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Clear skies on the coast and inland. High cloud a little offshore moving down from the north late morning well after eclipse.
Skippy Sky: Patchy low cloud just off the coast in eclipse area. Extensive high cloud 100km offshore from before sunrise.
EU: Some low cloud around Cairns (15%) and Port Douglas (40%). Low cloud at Mt Carbine clearing to ~50-60% by eclipse time and clear skies by midday. Similar but slightly better further inland at Mt Gibson (next nearest town where forecast available).

BoM and EU models greatly underestimated the amount of low cloud that appeared along the coast this morning., US model also but to a lesser extent. US Model again greatly overstated amount of high cloud generally but BoM model perhaps slightly underestimated.

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: <10%
60km Inland: ~40% (could be less but hard to discern cloud extent on satellite image)

Cyclone - if you could give a one sentence summary of what the webcams show for each location each day that would be a big help for me (among other things i can't access your site from work.. it's filtered out under the classification of 'tobacco').

Phil

[geoffsims]

This is great information. How far prior to the observed current day are your forecasts taken from?

[h0ughy]

geez i hope this prediction turns out to be true:question:

[shahgazer]

woo hoo!! Let's hope that'll be true!

Btw, great info guys! :thumbsup:

[Paul Haese]

Been watching for a couple of weeks and the monsoon is yet to show itself. By the 14th though this will certainly not be the case. I am banking on cloud and will be pleasantly surprised is it turns out that we have clear conditions.

Last two totals I have had a good feeling that we would see the eclipses. At this stage I don't have a good or bad feeling one way or the other. I know that is a bit airy fairy but it is as reliable as any long range forecast for Cairns longer than two days.

It will be nice to be in the shadow of the moon once again though.

[Phil Hart]

Thanks Geoff. I'm looking at the forecasts in the late afternoon/evening for the following day, which is also what I expect to do in Port Douglas on the 13th before deciding whether to stay at our beach house or venture 60km inland (pity there are very limited options for going any further than that). The BoM cloud forecast which is my primary source for near-term forecasts is updated twice a day, around 4/5 AM and PM.

The even later option is to check the satellite image and the skies around 2am but that's about as late as I could leave it..

Phil

[Phil Hart]

the scary thing about that is it shows how close the event is and how much work i still have to do (given that the freight truck arrives thursday!).

as for the predictions, we'll be lucky if they're correct 12 hours in advance! not an easy climate to do cloud forecasts in.

Phil

[Phil Hart]

Tuesday 23rd October
Synoptic Situation: A weakening ridge lies along the tropical east coast of Queensland.
Forecast: Mainly fine and mostly sunny. Only isolated showers developing during the late evening about the coast and ranges. Light to moderate S to SE winds, becoming fresh about the coast during the afternoon.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Heavy high cloud over all of far-north Queensland.
Skippy Sky: Extensive high cloud, with mid-level cloud north of eclipse track.
EU: Overcast with high cloud along coast and inland sites. Only very small amount of low cloud.

Observed Weather
Cairns: Few low clouds, Overcast high cloud and similar for all of the eclipse area.

All the models did well today anticipating the movement of a large system of high cloud coming down from the North. Again, not the kind of weather we want for eclipse day!

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: <5% (but with a hazy view of the sun through high cloud)
60km Inland: <5% (but with a hazy view of the sun through high cloud)

[cyclone]

Mt Carbine webcam added to my web page

[Liz]

woohoo, thank you Cyclone, now .... you have 9 webcams, which one is it? I didnt see one with Mt Carbine as such.

[cyclone]

goto my solar eclipse web page and scroll a bit down, it will be next to the Mareeba and Cairns webcam

[Liz]

:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::than x: :) :cool::2thumbs: :party2:

[erick]

Beaudy! But all cloud at the moment.

Just doing some calcs - looks like I won't have to venture far from Mt Carbine for a good view.

[Liz]

So glad the eclipse wasnt this morning - very cloudy in Mt Carbine. :cloudy:

[AstralTraveller]

This weather info is a great resource but it has made me doubt my original plans. I am going up to Adams Dam on the Sunday to get a good spot - I expect a lot of people will have bought the 4 day ticket and so be arriving on Monday - and so will be out of phone and internet contact. My original though was that if the weather starts to look bad it is due to a low pressure system offshore blowing cloud onto the coast. Therefore I was going to go further west to King Junction or perhaps even Pormpuraaw/Kowanyama (yes very remote but we are a group of three cruisers with all the gear). However the pattern I just saw appeared to be a cloud band that moved from west to east and so going west wouldn't necessarily help.

Can anyone (cyclone?) comment on how likely it is that any cloud is coming from the east or west and how do I tell the difference? Is it just a matter of noting the wind direction? If I see the weather map on Sunday morning how much use will that be? Some climate maps I saw months ago implied that the afternoon cloudiness increases as you move off the plateau down to the lower country. But that isn't morning cloud. Any comments welcome.

[Phil Hart]

Wednesday 24th October
Synoptic Situation: A trough extends from a deepening low over the central northern Tasman Sea to the Queensland coast near Hamilton Island, and is continuing to move northwards. A firm ridge from a high east of Victoria is building along Queensland's east coast to the south of the trough. A weak trough lies to the west of Torres Strait.
Forecast: Scattered showers south of Cairns, tending isolated elsewhere along the coast and ranges. Moderate to fresh SE winds, gusty at times along the coast.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Mix of high/mid/low cloud continues coming down from the north continues.
Skippy Sky: Extensive high cloud cover, some mid-level cloud to the north and low cloud just offshore.
EU: Overcast conditions with mix of high/mid/low cloud.

Observed Weather
Generally overcast skies with a mix of low/mid/high level cloud. Some clear gaps in a few locations.

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: <10%
60km Inland: <10%

[Phil Hart]

David.. I'd keep watching the patterns a bit more before reading too much into it. See how it looks as we get into November. But the flexibility you have to travel anywhere sounds great.

I think it would be difficult to make a decision on the basis of forecasts/cloud models on Sunday morning but by Monday morning you'd have better data. I don't think you necessarily need (or want) to be on the west coast of Cape York, but if you can get to places on the eclipse track that are well away from the east coast (150km+) that could increase your chances depending on the weather pattern in play. So far, 60km has often not been far enough to get clear of cloud over the ranges etc, particularly with eclipse low in east.

Just my unqualified two cents with very little experience of tropical weather..

[h0ughy]

the cloud this morning

[cyclone]

If eclipse was today:
Mareeba timelapse: sun was visible only at total
Cairns timelaspe: lot of clouds, the odd sun here or there
Mt Carbine: same as Cairns

[cyclone]

I've been advised by 'experts' that Mareeba to Kowanyama is 8 hour trip and Mareeba to Kowanyama via Lakeland could be 12 to 15hr plus hours

[AstralTraveller]

Sounds like they go faster than me. I'd reckoned on two days for this convoy ;).

[Phil Hart]

Thursday 25th October

Synoptic Situation: A high over the Tasman Sea extends a firm ridge along the east coast of Queensland.
Forecast: Isolated showers about the coast and ranges, clearing during the afternoon. Moderate SE winds, fresh at times along the coast.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Areas of low cloud offshore. Clear inland.
Skippy Sky: Areas of low cloud offshore and south of Cairns. Extensive high cloud well offshore but thinner towards the coast and onshore.
EU: Cairns and Port Douglas 50% cloudy with mix of mid and low level cloud. Mt Carbine overcast low cloud. Mt Gibson some low and heavier high cloud.

Observed Weather
Low cloud over the ranges and scattered cloud offshore. Large patch of cloud over north-eastern area of eclipse track. Clear in western half of track.

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~10%
60km Inland: ~20%

[Phil Hart]

That's a nice high resolution VIS image houghy. What's the page for that? I can't find it from yoko.npmoc.navy.mil.

Phil

[h0ughy]

http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat.html :D

[Phil Hart]

Because there's no way to get a map view of the cloud situation with the EU model, you may note that I'm quoting forecasts for some specific locations I can find in the area. Mt Gibson is near the north edge of the track and Mt Mulligan which I've just identified as a listed location on the yr.no site is south of the Mulligan Highway, both about 60km inland.

Note that I don't believe the models actually have a clue about the difference between places in the same coastal setting but as close together as Cairns and Port Douglas, but will generally provide figures for both to show the range of what the model indicates. Sometimes though the models will have a sketchy idea about the difference between coastal locations and those 60km inland. Definitely don't interpret the fact that I quote such precision to mean I believe it might ever be accurate.

[Phil Hart]

Friday 26th October
Synoptic Situation: A high over the Tasman Sea extends a weakening ridge along the east coast of Queensland.
Forecast: Fine and mostly sunny with isolated fog patches about the south coast and southern Tablelands during the morning. Light to moderate SE winds with afternoon seabreezes about the coast.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Areas of low cloud offshore. Clear inland. Small amount of high cloud entering Cape York from the west.
Skippy Sky: Generally clear but some patches of low cloud indicated over ranges and offshore. High cloud well to NE but <30% in eclipse area.
EU: Some low cloud indicated for Cairns (5%), Port Douglas (20-50%), Mt Carbine (5-20%). Generally clear 60km inland (0-10%).

Observed Weather
Cairns: Broken low cloud cover.
Eastern Eclipse Area: Scattered clouds offshore extending a short distance (~20km) inland to the ranges. Clear inland and across the rest of the eclipse track.

I give the cloud forecast models a big thumbs up for today. Heading inland would have been the right choice for a clear view of the eclipse. US model over-estimated high cloud but there was some high cloud to the NE.

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~30-40%
60km Inland: >90%

[h0ughy]

cloud map

[Phil Hart]

Saturday 27th October

Synoptic Situation: A high over the Tasman Sea extends a weakening ridge along the east coast of Queensland.
Forecast: Fine and mostly sunny. Light to moderate SE to NE winds.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Clear skies. Some small patches of high cloud moving from west to east during the night and during the day, but clear inland and offshore in the morning.
Skippy Sky: Clear skies, except for 10-20% high cloud indicated extending out from band well to the north.
EU: Absolutely clear skies. No cloud whatsoever indicated for inland or coastal eclipse locations at eclipse time!

Observed Weather
Cairns: Clear skies
Elsewhere: Clear skies across the entire eclipse path.

A perfect day for an eclipse in all areas and the cloud models picked it as well.

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: >95%
60km Inland: >95%

[Phil Hart]

Here's today's visible satellite image.. exactly the way we want to see it on the 14th!

[cyclone]

i also recorded wx images from Noaa on 137 Mhz
http://www.gorgecreekorchards.com.au/wxtoimg/noaa137.html

[Liz]

Looks clear on the webcams up your way this am Cyclone, but we have some heavy cloud in Townsville at the moment to the ENE.

[cyclone]

fingers crossed...

One can just see the hot air balloons in this time lapse http://www.gorgecreekorchards.com.au/wdisplay2/Mareeba.avi

[Phil Hart]

Sunday 28th October

Synoptic Situation: A high over the Tasman Sea extends a weakening ridge along the east coast of Queensland.
Forecast: Isolated morning fogs about the Tablelands and southern coast, clearing to a fine though a partly cloudy day. Light to moderate SE to NE winds.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Clear skies. Some low cloud only clearing inland late in the night and some low cloud offshore later in the morning.
Skippy Sky: Clear skies, except for indicated 20-30% high cloud, up to 50% on both north and south sides of eclipse track.
EU: Clear skies in Cairns with just a small amount (5-20%) low cloud indicated for Port Douglas. Clear skies inland.

Observed Weather
Cairns: Clear skies except for some thin/isolated fog patches visible on webcam (unlikely to have caused an issue).
Elsewhere: Clear skies in the southern half of eclipse track, but a band of cloud extending across Cape York in the northern half with heavier cover further west. Only thin/isolated clouds towards eastern end (60km in from coast).

The narrow band of cloud across Cape York was below the resolution/ability of most models (but the BoM model picked it quite well, it just took an extra couple of hours to clear). Despite that, all the models were broadly correct.

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: >90%
60km Inland: >70%

[h0ughy]

looing at the sat image this morning and future prospects

[geoffsims]

FYI, Fred Bruenjes has updated his EclipseWX site with nice maps, animations and forecast information for various sites in the TSE2012 path. See:

http://eclipsewx.com/

[Phil Hart]

Monday 29th October

Synoptic Situation: A high is moving eastwards across southeastern Australia and will enter the Tasman Sea late this evening. A surface trough extends through the interior of the state and is expected to move into western Queensland during Monday.
Forecast: Isolated light morning showers about the coast and ranges. Otherwise fine, partly cloudy until isolated mid afternoon showers and thunderstorms develop over the western Tablelands.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Generally clear but a little low cloud indicated around the ranges and offshore, more so after eclipse time.
Skippy Sky: Some low cloud around the ranges and offshore, especially south of Cairns. A little high cloud in a band above the northern edge of eclipse track.
EU: Variable estimates of low cloud (10-90%) for Cairns and Port Douglas. Similar for 60km inland locations, although Mount Mulligan shows as clear. Mount Carbine shows a little precipitation as well.

Observed Weather
Cairns: Low and mid level clouds but a lucky clear gap around eclipse time in the morning.
Elsewhere: Large patch of low cloud around Port Douglas extending 30km inland and further offshore. Generally clear across the rest of the eclipse track.

The models again not doing too bad on the broad picture, but a bit sketchy on the low cloud details. US model again over stating high cloud.
The forecasts indicated a retreat inland as the best option and this turned out to be the case.

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~40%
60km Inland: ~80-90%

[Phil Hart]

Tuesday 30th October

Synoptic Situation: A high over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge along Queensland's east coast.
Forecast: Isolated light showers about the coast and ranges during the morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Tablelands during the afternoon.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Some low cloud indicated off the coast and perhaps a small amount along the ranges.
Skippy Sky: Patches of low cloud indicated around Mt Carbine and offshore Port Douglas. Up to 50% high cloud indicated around Cairns, north of the eclipse track and to a lesser extent inland.
EU: 30-70% low cloud in coastal areas. Generally clear skies 60km inland.

Observed Weather
Cairns: Few low clouds.
Elsewhere: A few low clouds offshore and on the ranges behind Port Douglas and south of Cairns but plenty of gaps as well. Generally clear skies inland across the rest of the eclipse path.

I give the models another nod for today, all broadly indicating the common pattern of some cloud around the coast (although underestimating its extent offshore) with clear skies inland. US model again overstating high cloud.

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~50% (maybe higher)
60km Inland: ~90%

[h0ughy]

the long range - geez i hope this proves to be true

[h0ughy]

well that last post was too good to be true - not happy with this one:sadeyes: how forecasts can change in a few hours

[gregbradley]

I just checked Cairns forecast 30/10. Morning showers Tues and Wed, fine Thurs and Fri.

Greg.

[Satchmo]

So if it is clear inland will coastal cloud be likely to block the eclipse at only 12 degrees elevation? I am going to be about 75km inland. These analysis of predicted and actual likely of seeing eclipse from day to day don't clarify this issue for me.

[h0ughy]

well today wouldnt have been great

[cyclone]

looking at todays timelapse http://www.gorgecreekorchards.com.au/solar_eclipse.html
Mareeba: would just see Total then the light clouds roll in from the S
Cairns: some clouds at sunrise but total would of been ok
Mt Carbine: clear from sunrise to the end

follow me on twitter @MareebaWeather

[cyclone]

http://www.gorgecreekorchards.com.au/wxtoimg/noaa-15-10301923-mcir-thumb.jpg

[Phil Hart]

Mark

If there is only low cloud along the coast or over the ranges then from 75km inland it will be fine. eg.. if the cloud height is 2000m, then with the sun angle of 13 degrees, you'd need to be more than 8km further west for the sun to clear the cloud.

if there are cumulus clouds reaching say 5000m (could easily be higher some days, but not so often in the morning) then you need to be 20km west of them. still generally ok if the clouds are only along the coast/ranges.

often though there is cloud much further inland as well. If you look at the high resolution visible satellite images that houghy has posted, you can actually see the shadow of the cloud on the ground.. as long as you're not in that shadow you're fine.

but we won't have high res satellite images to use during the night before the eclipse.. only low res infrared images.

Phil

[Phil Hart]

Wednesday 31st October

Synoptic Situation: A high over the central Tasman Sea extends a weakening ridge along Queensland's east coast.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast: Mainly fine, Isolated morning coastal shower or two. Light to moderate E to SE winds.
Cairns Forecast: Fine, mostly sunny.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Generally clear. A little low cloud offshore (close to the coast) and possibly a little over the ranges (hard to discern), more so south of the eclipse area.
Skippy Sky: Low cloud offshore and again indicated around Mt Carbine. Heavy high cloud shown lined up across the inland eclipse path.
EU: 30-60% low cloud along the coast. 0-30% low cloud 60km inland, a little more at Mt Carbine closer to the ranges.

Similar patterns to previous days and similar predictions from the models, which have done well on the broad picture and even some of the details. US model again predicted a band of high cloud that was not present.

On another note about the the US Model (via Skippy Sky).. it clearly has a model grid point near Mt Carbine. There is often a point of low cloud in the models shown here, but the resolution of the model is not sufficient to show the real pattern of how this may extend to other areas of the ranges.

It's clearly an artifact that this one high elevation point in the model generates a diamond shaped spike for low cloud, and interpolates to zero at the surrounding grid points. I don't think it should be interpreted as meaning the model can tell something special about this location as compared to others along the ranges.

Observed Weather
Cairns: Luckily clear at eclipse time.
Elsewhere: Clouds just offshore and over the ranges behind Port Douglas would have blocked the view for many on the coast. Generally clear across the inland path, although a large area of cloud just south of the track.

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~50% (very hard to estimate)
60km Inland: ~90%

[Phil Hart]

are you talking about the long-term forecast for Cairns for the eclipse week? ok for a laugh but i wouldn't place any meaning on a two week forecast anywhere, but especially in FNQ! even three day forecasts are bouncing around a lot. just cross your fingers and hope for the best!

[xstream]

I would double cross fingers and toes and pray to the Gods! :prey2:

[Satchmo]

Thanks Phil, great explanation. So it looks like inland cloud will be the thing to spoil the party. On the whole it looks like the coastal fringe is more often in cloud than inland so I am probably in the best place but its still clearly very much a game of chance.

[johnsonlau]

I'm from Hong Kong and will arrive Cairns few days before the eclipse. This is my first time going to the Australia and I basically know nothing about the Cairns area.

I will stay in Cairns downtown where the sunrise and first contact will be obscured by a hill in the east. From Google Earth I find the height of the hill is about 700m. I wonder if cloud would form on top of it?

I won't drive, so my mobility is highly restricted. I am considering Palm Cove where sunrise is not obscured. Would that be a better choice than the downtown? If I want to go inland, is Mareeba the only choice with public transport?

Thank you!

[ourkind]

Hi there,

I too am staying in the Cairns town centre, I left it too late to hire a car and booked to early to realise that the Cairns town centre was not the best vantage point. So just a few days ago I booked myself into a Catamaran Cruise for approx AU$200 leaving Cairns at 3am breakfast and drinks included and returning to the harbour at 8am. There might be some cruises and space still available, if you are interested I can put you in touch with an agent.

Being on a boat does not worry me because I am not planning on taking photographic equipment like others, I prefer to watch my first one in full :) without the hassle.

Others may have better suited suggestions for you too. Good luck :thumbsup:

[cyclone]

You can walk to the esplanade.
There is no REAL public transport between Cairns and Mareeba, except taxi and a daily bus service.
There is a train which goes to Kuranda, which will be stopping on the mountain for the Total eclipse.
There is hot air balloons in Mareeba at max height of 6500ft, they pick up passengers from Cairns.

[h0ughy]

will update later but this is the latest

[Phil Hart]

Thursday 1st November

Synoptic Situation: A high over the central Tasman Sea extends a weakening ridge along Queensland's east coast.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast: Fine except for the a shower or two about the coast in the morning. Light to moderate E to SE winds with afternoon seabreezes about the coast.
Cairns Forecast: Fine, mostly sunny.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Patchy low cloud offshore and a little over the ranges. Some low cloud over central Cape York.
Skippy Sky: Some low cloud along the coast and the apparently common little indication of cloud around Mt Carbine (see note from yesterday). Extensive area of high cloud over the eastern third of eclipse path centred over Cairns.
EU: 20-50% low cloud along the coast. Clear skies 60km inland.

Again the models got the bigger picture broadly correct, but the details get sketchy. For instance, the patch of low cloud that BoM model predicted in central Cape York north of eclipse track was not present. US model again forecast a large area of high cloud that was not present.

Observed Weather
Cairns: A few low clouds close to the eastern horizon and back towards the ranges but a good clear view of the sun at eclipse time.
Elsewhere: Mostly clear view of the eclipse along Cairns end of the coastal strip, but cloudy in Port Douglas. Scattered low clouds over the ranges (but clear enough in Mt Carbine at eclipse time). Generally clear skies 60km inland.

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~50%
60km Inland: ~90%

[johnsonlau]

Thanks for your advice. For your webcams here: http://www.gorgecreekorchards.com.au/solar_eclipse.html , would you please tell their location in lat/long? They are very useful!

[johnsonlau]

This site provides cloud cover forecast based on GFS: http://www.7timer.com/wchart.php?lang=en , updating 4 times per day

In the chart, blue means clear, white means overcast

[cyclone]

the webcams are located in Mareeba, Cairns and Mt Carbine ( west of Port Douglas )

[cyclone]

based on today's time lapse:
Mareeba: 95% clear due to late cloud after 730am
Cairns: cloud for start of eclipse, but clears for total
Mt Carbine: clear but with little cloud at start

http://www.gorgecreekorchards.com.au/solar_eclipse.html

[Phil Hart]

Yes.. this is the same US GFS model that Skippy Sky also presents data from. Use whichever interface you prefer, but the forecast data should be the same (also on just about every other weather website online as well.. they all use US GFS model).

Phil

[cyclone]

based on today's time lapse:
Mareeba: high, very light cloud at start. Total clear. mid clouds at 730am
Cairns: cloudy, then clears at 7am
Mt Carbine: same as Mareeba, but remains clear through to 8am

http://www.gorgecreekorchards.com.au/solar_eclipse.html

[geoffsims]

Phil - correct, however the individual websites do all interpret the GFS model slightly differently. I'm not sure of the details (do some use a finer/courser lat/long grid? Do some provide clever additional meteorological interpretation?). I suspect at least some of the variation may be for visualisation purposes (e.g. 7timer tries to make things look realistically like clouds).

Having never played with the 7timer one, I quite like the fact you can see (at a glance), how the last 4 model runs predict any specific time. i.e., it's interesting to see if the latest model run is much different from the one 18 hours ago.

[johnsonlau]

I'm involved in the development of 7timer. The charts are based on raw GFS data without further interpretation.

[Phil Hart]

Friday 2nd November

Synoptic Situation: A high over the eastern Tasman Sea extends a weakening ridge along Queensland's east coast.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast: Fine, mostly sunny. Light to moderate SE to NE winds.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Appears to indicate clear skies offshore and inland (with the caveat that it's hard on these synthetic IR images to be sure what's happening)
Skippy Sky: Small amount of low cloud over Mt Carbine (as per usual) and just offshore. High cloud over most of Cape York north of eclipse track, extending a little over track as well.
EU: 10-30% low cloud indicated for Cairns, 30-70% in Port Douglas. 0-50% low cloud shown for Mt Gibson and Mt Carbine, clear at Mt Mulligan. All locations improving from 5am to 8am.Similar forecasts and similar result to the last few days. US Model again seeing high cloud where there is none.

Observed Weather
Cairns: A little low cloud around but clear at eclipse time.
Elsewhere: Some low cloud over the ranges, and a little offshore Port Douglas. Clear skies inland.

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~70-80%
60km Inland: ~95%

[cyclone]

3rd Nov 2012
In (Mareeba) the wind direction is from the west this morning
http://www.gorgecreekorchards.com.au/wx/flash.html
Should see perfect view of the sun this morning http://www.gorgecreekorchards.com.au/solar_eclipse.html
There is some very light cloud

[spacezebra]

Hi Phil

I appreciate the updates. Cheers Petra d.

[Phil Hart]

Saturday 3rd November

Synoptic Situation: A weak ridge lies along the tropical east Queensland coast.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast: Fine and sunny. Light to moderate SE to NE winds.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Clear skies along the coast and inland. Some low cloud inland north of eclipse track but looks to be only after eclipse time.
Skippy Sky: Clear skies with just a little high cloud around (north and south of coastal eclipse area).
EU: Crystal clear skies along the coast and inland.

Observed Weather
Cairns: Good view of the sun in slightly hazy skies.
Elsewhere: A band of low cloud offshore and slightly hazy skies due to some thin high cloud but most locations between Cairns and Port Douglas had a clear view at eclipse time. Just a couple of isolated patches of cloud over the ranges and clear skies 60km inland.

The band of low cloud offshore was not clearly indicated by the models, but the BoM model arguably did pick up an area of scattered cloud inland north of the eclipse track. Thin/hazy high cloud visible in the webcams hard to discern on the satellite image so presumably not very extensive.

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~70-80%
60km Inland: ~95%

[Phil Hart]

Sunday 4th November

Synoptic Situation: A high pressure system lies just east of Victoria and is expected to strengthen as it drifts further east into the Tasman Sea over the next couple of days, extending a firm ridge along much of the east Queensland coast.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast: Mainly fine, partly cloudy, isolated showers developing during the afternoon and evening south of about Cairns and southern Tablelands.. Light to moderate SE to NE winds.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Low cloud offshore, clear skies inland.
Skippy Sky: Low cloud offshore. High cloud across southern track area and offshore well east of Cairns.
EU: 30-40% low cloud for Cairns, 50-60% for Port Douglas. Both clear by middle of the day. Pretty clear skies inland, but low clouds still shown at Mt Carbine (30%).

Observed Weather
Thin line of low cloud lying along the coast and scattered clouds over the ranges. Clear inland.
Skies improving through the morning at Cairns with the sun just into clear skies at eclipse time. Would have needed similar luck elsewhere along coast. Clear view at eclipse time from Mt Carbine and Mareeba.

I give all the models a nod again for the broad picture with respect to low cloud offshore and over the ranges. US model closer to the mark on the high cloud today as there was high cloud to the east of Cairns (clearer over land eclipse track at eclipse time than the model suggested though).

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~50%
60km Inland: ~95%

[Phil Hart]

The various models are all in broad agreement about a large and significant low pressure trough moving through central Australia this week, affecting northern Queensland next weekend to some extent.

Its affect as far north as the eclipse region does not look too strong at the moment. Even so, it's going to make for a nervous few days as we all arrive in FNQ! Better that it arrives on the weekend though than middle of next week, but we'll need some luck to move all the associated moisture away and return to clearer skies by eclipse day. Fingers crossed!

Phil

[Phil Hart]

Here are my thoughts after watching the weather in Cairns for a couple of weeks..

Similar to my experience with them in Victoria, I would rate the BoM and EU models as more useful/accurate than the US model, although you can usually interpret the same patterns in the US model, just with lower resolution. It is reassuring when they all agree, but as Jay Anderson and other meteorologists have said, the models tend to be more like each other than the real weather.

The BoM model is just a little bit hard to use at the moment as the only representation we have is a 'synthetic' infrared forecast image which makes picking out low cloud on night time and early morning images tricky. The EU model via yr.no is great as it gives you the breakdown in percentage for low/mid/high cloud, but unfortunately you can only get spot forecasts for specific locations.. there are no free websites that show a map of the cloud forecasts from this EU model.

Before I started this thread two weeks ago, on the basis of what I had read and heard till then, my plan was to setup where I am staying with family and friends at Newell Beach (just north of Port Douglas) and take whatever weather I got on the day. I understood that my odds there were as good there as anywhere else.

However, after watching the patterns these last two weeks, I now expect to drive out along the Mulligan Highway the evening before the eclipse, stay beside the car through the night, and photograph the eclipse from 60km inland, at the end of that long straight stretch of road just before the Mulligan Highway turns to the north.

There have been a few days where the models have predicted clear conditions along the coast, and generally been correct, so with a forecast like that I might stay on the beach (but ready to jump if the skies don't still look clear at ~2am). Otherwise, under the typical forecast pattern of some low clouds along the coast and ranges, and since photography is a lot less flexible than visually observing an eclipse, I expect to head inland as the chances have been better there most days. It's just a pity there are so few good roads and places to setup as 60km is not as far inland as I would like to be.. it's still a marginal proposition.

So for most people, the coast is probably still the right option and for visual observers even the ability to move a few hundred metres up or down along the beach might be enough to improve your chances and miss a poorly placed low cloud.

The inland option means doing a scouting trip in the days beforehand, and not sleeping much if at all the night before to find a space where you can pull off the road in plenty of time before sunrise.

So I'm certainly not advising people on the coast to change their plans. However, for people staying in Mt Carbine and other locations close to the ranges, I think you do need a good Plan B. The ranges are typically cloudier than the coast or inland, and with the sun so low in the sky you would often have lost it in the clouds over these last two weeks. Some days are ok, and logistically you are in good spot able to quickly move east or west, but I would have a good plan of where you are headed if you wake up to cloudy skies early on eclipse morning (and leaving yourself plenty of time to make the move).

Good luck all.. we're going to need it!

Phil

[h0ughy]

thanks Phil for your insight - here is this mornings cloud but a woefull prediction forthe 14 - i hope thats wrong:help:

[geoffsims]

Good call Phil. For the week or so you've been analysing this, and from watching the webcams, it does seem like in general the coast has low fast moving clouds, while inland is often clearer. The low fast moving clouds are very difficult to escape, and may be very much down to luck.



It's been said before, but I'll say it again - there's basically no point in even worry about this now, even for comic value. The only forecast that matters is the one the night of the 13th, or anything else you can obtain throughout the night. Even 2-3 days out it will be interesting, but still useless. During previous eclipses, expert eclipse meteorologist Jay Anderson has often provided commentary on weather and model predictions from around 7 days out from the eclipse. On at least more than one occasion, I recall the forecast for E-day being dire, but then 2 days before all the models changed and the forecast was good! If anything, I would probably prefer a "bad" forecast this far out, under the assumption that it will be wrong :-)

Geoff

[Phil Hart]

thanks Dave.. i'm enjoying studying the weather this intensely in a completely new location. anybody listening to my advice should bear that in mind.. i have zero experience of weather forecasting in the tropics!

as you can see, the long-term forecasts are still bouncing around all over the place so i wouldn't place much meaning on them yet. it all depends how things settle down once this trough moves through/decays.

at the moment, i expect sat/sun will be the worst in FNQ (most of the effect of the trough is further west and south) but there could be enough moisture/instability around afterwards to keep causing issues for a few more days, even inland. even on this large scale question it's too early to say.. as for exactly what might happen at 6am on the day we're a long way from having any clue..

Phil

[JethroB76]

Thanks for your thoughts Phil. I will be based in Cairns, but following this thread I have been thinking of heading inland. I don't know the area, but wouldn't the "mulligan hwy straight" you mention be as susceptible as Mt Carbine - if there is cloud at Mt Carbine wont it be in your way only a little while further east of it?
I and the family are only observing, no photography, so I had thought a beach near Port Douglas would be the go but inland is looking better by the day...:eyepop:

[Phil Hart]

You can easily get 30-50km further west from Mt Carbine on the Mulligan Hwy. Terry Cuttle has some scouting results in the main eclipse thread. On some days, that's plenty far enough to get clear of the cloud over the ranges. On other days you need to be further than it is possible to get. Keep watching and keep an open mind.. the weather pattern later this week could be a bit different I think.

Phil

[JethroB76]

Will definitely keep watching, going to be an interesting week or so :lol:

[cyclone]

i've added to my web page http://www.gorgecreekorchards.com.au/solar_eclipse.html

-distance from town/city and height above sea level
-live radio stream of ABC Far North

[johnsonlau]

How about Mareeba? It's about 40km inland. Would it have better chance than Cairns?

[cyclone]

Listen from 6.30am local (7.30am AEST)(2030 UTC) as they speak to Cairns BOM

[Liz]

Your website has been great Cyclone, thank you. :thumbsup:

I had them on at work yday morning in Townsville, and have the girls set to have it on eclipse morning with the great sunrise views that you have there.

Will be great live webcam eclipse shots, for sure!!

[Phil Hart]

Monday 5th November

Synoptic Situation: A trough extends over central coast waters into the central interior of Queensland and is expected to weaken as it contracts further north on Monday. A high over the Tasman Sea will move southeast towards New Zealand over the next couple of days, maintaining a firm ridge along the east Queensland coast.

North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast: Isolated showers about the coast, ranges and southern Tablelands, tending scattered along the coast and ranges south of Cape Tribulation. Fine and partly cloudy for the remainder. Moderate S/SE winds, becoming fresh and gusty about the coast during the day.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Low cloud offshore, particularly before eclipse time, and a little over the ranges. Generally clear inland but some cloud patches shown in the middle of Cape York.
Skippy Sky: Low cloud offshore (a little heavier than average forecast) plus the now familiar indication of low cloud over Mt Carbine. A small amount of high cloud (patches east and west of Cairns).
EU: 40-80% low cloud for Cairns and Port Douglas, with some mid-level cloud coming in later. Less than 30% low cloud 60km inland, 50% at Mt Carbine.

Observed Weather
Cairns: Broken cloud cover or scattered clouds.
Elsewhere: Cloud along the coast and over the ranges. Actually relatively clear further offshore but from Cairns webcam sun was behind cloud more often than not. Generally clear skies 60km inland.

Models repeating a similar pattern to previous days and a similar result observed. Outright luck as to whether your location on the coast has a gap at the right time in this kind of pattern.

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~30% (hard to say) [EDIT - probably quite a bit higher except for Cairns]
60km Inland: ~90%

[h0ughy]

Man i am crossing my fingers and toes for next tuesday/wednesday

[Phil Hart]

Keep watching cyclones webcam and see what you think. I think it has tended to average better than Cairns but not quite as good as locations a bit further inland that get more distance back from the cloudy ranges. Cyclone would be better positioned to answer this though..

[astronobob]

Here is one looking more semi positive ? ? Please, everyone have a clear & positive mind when thinking about the weather : )
We Can Do It,
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/long-range-forecast/28-day-rain/qld/peninsula

[Danack]

Clewds diss-appear?

:rofl:

[OzEclipse]

Hi Phil,

Thanks for these even though I have been reading them with some dismay. You paint a dismal picture for the coast.

Could you tell us the source & location of the coastal weather observations?

I am now in Port Douglas. At most ~1 Octa of cloud this morning on the west mountain ridge horizon up to 10-15 degrees. From 15 degrees above the west horizon to the east horizon clear except for one wispy 50% transparent cloud approx 2x8 degrees in size. Locals working at my site have told me that PD has been clear at eclipse time for several days though I'd put less reliability on these anecdotal observations. Who is feeding you these coastal observations and importantly where are the observations being made. I agree with statements about fast moving cloud but there are some areas that seem to have local cloud problems due to their proximity to the ranges.

Also keep in mind that thin cloud covering the coastline at eclipse time won't necessarily interfere with observations, at least not of the sun.

joe:shrug:

[Phil Hart]

hi joe

my main source is usually the high res visible satellite image at 7am, complemented by cyclones webcams at cairns, mareeba and mt carbine. if i get a chance before going to work i also look at the cairns airport METAR (observations) in the morning.

this morning was complicated by the fact that the site i get the high res visible image from (which houghy linked to) had a big gap in their usual sequence and did not provide an image till much later in the morning. so it was more difficult to say off the alternative images, but there appeared to be a band of low cloud hanging over the coast (7am attached). the webcam in cairns supported that (and the airport observation was BKN - broken cloud cover at a relatively low height.. about 2500 feet as i recall).

i did think at the time looking at the image that the east may have been clear from many locations along the coast, but leant in favour of what i could see on the webcam and the airport observations. looking again at the satellite image that was probably too conservative and much of the coast probably did ok.. but it's actually hard to reconcile the webcam and observations from cairns with this 7am image.

most mornings there has been more cloud off the coast than there was this morning.. so i'm not sure i agree with the anecdotal observations of the last few days. non-astronomers are often not very good at describing cloud situations?

my definition of success is quite tight too.. what a photographer would want for a clear view of the corona etc. a visual observer would be happy with quite a bit less.

hope that helps..

Phil

[OzEclipse]

Thanks for that. Can I suggest you call them satellite cloud analysis or anything but observations or observed weather? I think it makes it confusing for the casual reader.

I do agree with your comment about non-astronomers, hence my caveat on the anecdotal observations.

There are a couple of traps interpreting satellite photo's as "observations"
cloud on the coast at 2500m - 5000 m won't interfere with coronal observations unless it extends 10-20km out to sea. Likewise, a clear sky over the coast won't guarantee success unless the cloud extends 10-20km out to sea.

It isn't such a problem here but cloud shown on a satellite photo isn't located where it is shown on photo relative to the coastline.

In the case of MTSAT the lateral displacement for Cairns is small, no more than a couple of km for low cloud, 5km for upper level.

BTW Completely cloudy this morning in Port Douglas low cloud as far as I could see in all directions.

Joe

[Phil Hart]

Wednesday 7th November

Synoptic Situation: A high over the Tasman Sea is expected to intensify as it moves towards New Zealand over the next couple of days, maintaining a firm ridge along the east Queensland coast. A trough will move into far western Queensland this evening and remain slow moving near the western border of Queensland during Tuesday.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast: Isolated morning showers about the coast and ranges. Morning drizzle on the southern Tablelands. Otherwise, fine and partly cloudy. Moderate SE winds, fresh and gusty about the coast at times.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: A little low cloud offshore and over the ranges (very hard to describe extent based on available forecast images). A small patch of high cloud decaying over coastal eclipse path late in the night.
Skippy Sky: Large area of low cloud offshore extending inland to Mt Carbine.
EU: 40-50% low cloud for Cairns/Port Douglas (with light showers indicated for Port Douglas). 50-90% low cloud and showers at Mt Carbine. Inland locations show 30% low cloud at Mt Gibson (Lakeland) but clear skies at Mt Mulligan.

Satellite Analysis/Observed Weather
Visible Satellite (6:33AM, attached): Heavy cloud cover along the coast and ranges. Scattered clouds offshore. A few clouds inland but mainly clear skies. Infrared loop suggests that even 60km inland was cloudy at times a few hours before eclipse.
Cairns Airport (7:30AM): Scattered clouds at 2500ft, broken cloud cover at 6000ft.
Webcams: Broken cloud cover in the east early at Mareeba, clearing later but sun behind cloud at eclipse time. Broken cloud cover at Cairns and Mt Carbine, with very little view of the sun.

Similar prediction and a similar result.. models ok on the broad patterns but you can't read much into the details. The BoM text forecast is actually as good an indication for the coast as anything else.. if it describes morning showers/drizzle you can expect heavier cloud or lower odds of success than other days.

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~<10%
60km Inland:~70-80%

[Phil Hart]

happy to admit i got monday wrong.. but i did note at the time that it was 'hard to say' given lack of usual information and difficulty reconciling the sources i did have. if you look back at my comments vs the images houghy and/or i have posted some days i doubt you'll find much to disagree with.



ok.. not a bad suggestion.. i've started being more specific about the sources for what i describe (this gets more time consuming each day!). The webcams and Cairns airport METAR fit pretty easily under the definition of 'observed weather' though.



Yes.. I have commented on this up the thread as well after doing a bit of my own trigonometry ;). Inland on the visible image it's quite easy as you can often see the displaced shadows of the clouds on the ground. Working out when on the coast you can see the east from under the clouds is quite a bit harder but most days have not had the kind of clear area offshore that Monday had. Going to need some luck!

Phil

[RichardJ]

Hi,

I've been following this thread with interest. I've been watching this webste
http://7timer.y234.cn/index.php?product=civil&lang=en&lon=145.77085999999997&lat=-16.923978e

which might be useful.

I pray it will be clear on the day. The weather and I are old adversaries ;). I love the quote attributted to Charles Dudley Warner (also attributed to Mark Twain) about the New England weather which many of you probably know.

The weather is a topic "about which a great deal is said, but very little is done."

RichardJ :)

[geoffsims]

One of the nice features on Fred B's eclipsewx.com site is that for a number of locations, he has indicated on the maps where a 9km cloud would block the view of the Sun.

The stills from each morning are archived, so you can get an idea, each day, from a number of sites, if the eclipse would have been visible or not.

[Phil Hart]

Thanks Geoff.. I hadn't spent too much time on Fred's site yet but it's certainly worth a look.

A quick analysis of his archive images for the last 19 days yields the following breakdown, which I think is pretty similar to the results I've shown:

Cairns: Yes 3, Maybe 6, No 10
Port Douglas: Yes 5, Maybe 3, No 11
Mulligan Highway: Yes 12, Maybe 4, No 3

Very roughly a 70% chance of success 60km inland and about a 35% chance on the coast. The bad days inland are generally associated with bigger disturbances like the decaying trough which will move through late this week and the weekend. Hopefully a more typical pattern reasserts itself by eclipse day.

I think that's a pretty convincing argument for heading inland for those who can. Just a pity the roads won't accommodate that many people! Of course you can get lucky or unlucky anywhere on the day!

cheers
Phil

[johnsonlau]

It's <192 hours now and the high resolution GFS forecast is available. Looks not too bad (yes, I know it's too early to say):

(Note that the graph is dynamic and updates 4 times per day)
http://www.7timer.com/v4/bin/meteo.php?lon=145.771&lat=-16.924&lang=en&ac=0&unit=metric&output=internal&tzshift=0

[Phil Hart]

Wednesday 7th November

Synoptic Situation: A high is expected to remain slow moving near New Zealand over the next few days, maintaining a firm ridge along the east Queensland coast. A surface trough over southwestern Queensland will move only slowly eastwards through western Queensland during Wednesday.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast: Isolated showers about the coast and ranges, mainly during the morning and evening. Light to moderate S to SE winds.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: High cloud north of eclipse area and a little in central Cape York over the path. Low cloud offshore mainly south of Cairns.
Skippy Sky: A little low cloud offshore and the usual indication at Mt Carbine. Less high cloud than BoM model, mainly western and far northern Cape York.
EU: 40-70% low cloud for Cairns/Port Douglas with some mid-level cloud after eclipse time. 50% low cloud at Mt Carbine. <30% low cloud inland.

Satellite Analysis/Observed Weather
Visible Satellite Image (6:33AM): Patchy cloud cover along the coast, over the ranges and offshore. Clearest sky halfway between Cairns and Port Douglas.
Cairns Airport (6:30AM): Few clouds (2-3 oktas) at 2600ft.
Webcams: Cloud cover low in east initially but increasing at Cairns through the morning and sun largely obscured (unluckily) at eclipse time. Clearer skies in Mareeba and Mt Carbine.

Low cloud pattern similar to previous days.. models not able to say much meaningful about the details. European model probably the most useful indicator. BoM and US Model did a reasonable job indicating the high cloud over Cape York, with the reality probably somewhere between the two.

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~~40% (just clouded out in Cairns, but a little clearer to the north. reports from anybody in Port Douglas today welcome.)
60km Inland:~70-80%

[cyclone]

i've emailed ABC Far North to ask Cairns Met BOM for an outlook for the 14th

goto my web page and listen in at 6.30am Local or 7.30am AEDT
http://www.gorgecreekorchards.com.au/solar_eclipse.html

[gaa_ian]

This forcast for Cairns on Wed the 14th (http://www.accuweather.com/en/au/cairns/13968/morning-weather-forecast/13968?day=7) from Accuweather
A plan B to go west the night before could be the go !
There is little chance of getting anywhere west on the morning of the eclipse.

[cyclone]

a word of warning.....
if nasty accident occurs the range roads, the road will close.
I've seen accidents with trucks involved and the road is closed for 7 hours, if its cars its less.

[Phil Hart]

Thursday 8th November

Synoptic Situation: A high near New Zealand is expected to remain near stationary into Friday with a weakening ridge along the east coast of Queensland. A trough is approaching the western border from South Australia and will merge with a stationary trough already over western Queensland by Friday then move further east.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast: Fine and partly cloudy. Light to moderate E to SE winds with NE seabreezes about the coast.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Clouds over the ranges and a little offshore. Indication of some low cloud in central Cape York.
Skippy Sky: Some low cloud over the ranges and offshore. Heavy high cloud across Cape York as far south as Cairns.
EU: 30-100% low cloud for Cairns/Port Douglas. 0-30% low cloud inland. 30% low cloud at Mt Carbine.

Satellite Analysis/Observed Weather
Visible Satellite Image (6:33AM): Broken low cloud cover along the coast, over the ranges and extending a little offshore. Thin high cloud affecting the entire inland eclipse track.
Cairns Airport (7:00AM): Broken cloud cover at 2600ft and 4500ft.
Webcams: Cloudy in Cairns. Sun in view from Mareeba and Mt Carbine but affected by high cloud.

Low cloud pattern similar to previous days and again you can't interpret any details from the models, other than coast vs inland trends. High cloud was much better described by US model on this occasion.

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: <10%
60km Inland:<20% chance of clear view, but most areas would have had a hazy view through high cloud.

[Phil Hart]

Some thoughts about the weather and the models looking ahead, bearing in mind that I am not a trained meteorologist and have almost zero experience of tropical weather - but I am having fun studying the weather!

A trough currently moving through central Queensland will weaken/decay as it moves further east, but will still have some effect on FNQ over the weekend. The moisture and instability associated with the trough means that the weather patterns over the weekend and into early next week will NOT be indicative of what we are likely to see on Wednesday morning. But they will make for a very anxious weekend for everybody arriving in the eclipse area!

So don't lose heart if Monday and even Tuesday morning are damp and cloudy. Having said that, even by Wednesday we may not be back to the best conditions we've seen some days over the last weeks, but there sure is room for hope.

With the trough having hopefully faded away, we should be back to a typical easterly pattern, which means a variable and unpredictable amount of morning cloud along the coast, offshore and over the ranges. Under these conditions, the trend improves inland but far from certain 60km inland which is about as far as you can easily get.

Low clouds in this environment (or anywhere) are chaotic and hard to predict. Even the night before the eclipse, the weather models simply cannot say anything sensible about whether Cairns or Port Douglas or somewhere else along the coast is likely to have more or less low cloud. If you plan to be mobile, ignore the models and watch the skies and the infrared satellite image and make your decisions on that. But you'll have to make your move so early given limited road capacity and road closures that even these will be of little predictive value.

What the models can and have indicated is that on the days with the prevailing easterly pattern, inland locations tend to do better. But exactly which ones, again the models are just guessing. ie. don't place any meaning on an indication in the model that north of the centreline is going to do better than a little south.

Just because the US model appears to show a diamond shaped patch of low cloud over Mt Carbine (which it often does), or one just offshore from Port Douglas, does not mean it actually knows something about these specific locations. These are just artifacts of the low resolution of the models. The width of the eclipse track is covered by just a few grid points in the model.. nowhere near enough to accurately predict the variation in low cloud cover.

Also remember that just about every free weather website on the web is presenting data from the same US GFS weather model. They do it with different colours and icons, but it's generally the same data (Skippy Sky is a great one-stop shop for astronomers wanting to see output from the GFS model). While I would rate the European model and forecasts from the Australian BoM as just slightly better than the US model, the value is in checking three different sources to see how much they differ.

So do checkout yr.no (http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Queensland/Cairns~2172797/hour_by_hour_detailed.html), and search for forecasts for Cairns, Port Douglas, Mt Carbine, Mt Mulligan, Mt Gibson etc). To my knowledge this is the only publicly accessible website providing forecasts from the European model. Hit the hour-by-hour link and then the detailed option for full cloud details. Then take an average of places in a similar environment.. eg look at forecasts for Cairns and Port Douglas to get an idea of the average forecast for the coast, but don't place any meaning on the specific differences between the two.

You can also check out synthetic satellite forecast images (http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/ljr/projects/Forcs/ani_a.html) from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology ACCESS model, but these are quite hard to interpret if you're not familiar with them. Much simpler but just as meaningful is to look at the BoM text forecast for the region. 'Scattered showers' is worse than a forecast for only 'isolated showers'. 'Partly cloudy' is a pretty good forecast for this area and only rarely will you get 'mainly sunny'. The computer models may seem like they provide a beautiful amount of detail, but what they really 'know' is nothing more than what is captured by those broad forecast statements.

Good luck!

Phil

[cyclone]

I've just heard on ABC radio that Cairns MET will talk about eclipse weather this morning, listen in at 6.35am LOCAL or 7.35 AEDT on my web page

http://www.gorgecreekorchards.com.au/solar_eclipse.html

[Phil Hart]

Friday 9th November

Synoptic Situation: A weakening high over New Zealand extends a ridge onto the Queensland east coast. A trough occurs over the interior and is expected to drift further east tomorrow, eventually reaching the southeast region on Saturday.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast: Isolated showers about the coast and ranges, mainly during the afternoon and evening. Light to moderate E to SE winds with afternoon seabreezes about the coast.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: A little low cloud over the ranges and offshore, perhaps also extending a little further inland than average. Some patches of high cloud moving down from the north, but not much around eclipse time.
Skippy Sky: Some low cloud over the ranges and offshore. Extensive high cloud over Cape York and heaviest just east of the coast. Less high cloud south of Cairns.
EU: Anywhere from 10-90% low cloud for Cairns/Port Douglas, with 50-90% high cloud as well. 0-50% low cloud for locations 60km inland, with 10-100% high cloud also.

Satellite Analysis/Observed Weather
Visible Satellite Image (6:33AM): Scattered low cloud along the coast, over the ranges and offshore. Clear skies inland. Some high cloud over northern Cape York and a band of cloud associated with a trough moving through central Queensland.
Cairns Airport (7:00AM): Scattered cloud at 2600ft.
Webcams: Scattered or broken cloud cover in Cairns with little clear view of the sun. Reports from Port Douglas of clearer skies earlier in the morning but the sun clouded out at eclipse time. Clear skies in Mareeba and Mt Carbine on the webcams.

Low cloud pattern similar to many previous days, and again the models are useful for seeing the pattern but not any of the details. US model overstated high cloud again this time.

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~10-20%
60km Inland: >90%

This will be the last of these updates.. I arrive in Port Douglas tomorrow and things will get hectic! At any rate, because the cloud patterns over the next few days will be affected by the trough, they won't provide much useful information about probable weather on eclipse day.

I will try and post some weather updates about eclipse day itself, with a final one by around 6pm Tuesday afternoon (at which time I will have a meteorologist with me as well). But I don't expect to be able to say much more then than I did in the last post.. the usual pattern should be in play again which means there ain't nobody who will be able to predict exactly where the clouds will be on eclipse morning, other than to say the trend will likely be better inland.

Phil

[Phil Hart]

I'm sure I'm not the only one who'd be interested in a summary of what they said.. ;)

Phil

[RichardJ]

Hi Phil,

Thanks for all your efforts. Best of luck on the day.

regards,

RichardJ.

[Phil Hart]

The Bureau of Meteorology has put this page up about the eclipse with some general commentary on weather, linked from the front page:

http://www.bom.gov.au/social/2012/11/cairns-total-solar-eclipse-2012/

Phil

[Blaznee]

As a Trinity Beach resident I have been keeping a close eye on the changing weather patterns as we move towards the wet season. So far it is looking 50/50 for a clear morning for the eclipse.
I took this photo from the southern end of Trinity Beach this morning at 06:00 hrs. Around 07:30 it clouded over and started showering.
I will be taking more photos over the weekend and will post them on this thread should anyone be interested.

Clear Skies........Please!:(
Gary

[Eclipser]

Hello everyone, I'm writing this email from Cairns.
I'm not quiet sure how to interpret the various data given in the previous posts. I don't know exactly what is meant by "inland" and what is meant by "coast". In particular, there are 2 points to note:
- Cairns is encircled by big hills/low mountains, and the lands ~50km "behind" Cairns may be sunny, but the eastern horizon is often blocked by cloud over those mountains. It is the same for Port Douglas. You must go very far to have absolutely no mountain on the easter horizon.
-What does "50%" or "90% chance of seeing the eclipse" mean ? From what I can observe on the terrain, the only thing important is the cloud coverage dozens of kilometers east from the observing site. It often happens here that it is raining on Cairns and on the coast, but the sun at 13° high is perfectly visible.
So just don't forget that cloud coverage over "60km inland" is interesting if you are located 90km inland. Cloud coverage over coast is important if you are located inland. And clould coverage over the sea is important if you are located on the coast.
From what I could observe, the coast seems a quiet better place for observing than the inland. I say that independantly from the data (and the good work) provided here which should be hard to interpret (including height of the clouds, etc...). The sun beeing very low, clearly the weather above your head has no importance at all (even if often correlated to the regional weather).
If others did observe the same thing than me, thanks for sharing your opinion.

[pluto]

Thanks for the new perspective Mike, makes me feel better about staying near the coast :-)

[JethroB76]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think the discussion of cloud coverage has considered the cloud to the east of the position ("inland" or "coast") that will then affect views of the sun close to the horizon rather than what is overhead at said position?

[Phil Hart]

There is a little discussion of this further up the thread, but in short yes, I have considered the position of the sun at eclipse time when making the assessments.

Since it is mostly low loud up to heights of around 2km, you only need to be around 8km west of the cloud for the sun to be above it. I would agree that just a little west of the ranges is not the ideal place to be, but 60km inland (which is the position I have been describing) has generally been clear of any effect of cloud over the ranges, but there are some days when it does extend inland far enough that it would be a problem.

[Paul Haese]

Its been 22 years since I have been here in Cairns and the weather is still the same. Cloud this morning and cloud this evening. Looking 50/50 at this stage. No monsoon trough is good though. Time will tell. Certainly not betting on going just over the range.

[h0ughy]

why cant we have a high pressure system sit over the area and clear the clouds and have clear crisp skies....... not that i anxious or anything?

[Eclipser]

Thank you for your reply.
Then a good inland position may be hard to find. The Mulligan Hwy provides by the far the best driving conditions, but after several kilometers head north and the east is "hidden" above mountains.
Just before it heads north, you seemed to find it a nice place. Link is below, I've added the relief in google maps to highlight what I mean. Mount Carbine is straight in the line of sight, and it's a bit scaring in my opinion... irrationnal maybe ?

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=cairns&hl=fr&ll=-16.491002,144.93368&spn=0.171184,0.676346&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=39.780156,86.572266&hnear=Cairns+Queensland,+Australie&t=p&z=11&layer=c&cbll=-16.491002,144.93368&panoid=Lw6mPIwWn3DegmzJ_OyA7g&cbp=11,97.08,,0,-6.67

I don't know what to think from all that. And the day before, driving make it impossible to have internet and latest weather forecasts of course, the 13th in the morning is the last chance before taking the car and preceding the crowd... I think I will ultimately roll a dice for this eclipse.

[Phil Hart]

it's on the way houghy.. it's *much* better that this trough affects Cairns Saturday-Monday rather than middle of next week! we will back to high pressure ridge over the area on Wednesday, but that still means moist easterly flow with variable and unpredictable cloud on wednesday morning.

Phil

[Willoughby]

Uh oh. This morning's EC and GFS runs aren't looking so good for Cairns.

[gregbradley]

In NSW weather is distinctly different on the western side of the Great Dividing Range to the eastern side. Generally it is far clearer but not always. Sometimes that is in reverse but usually that is a pattern of weather behaviour and is predictable. Many times beyond count I have left cloudy Sydney to go to my western side of the ranges site to arrive to completely clear skies. Or leave completely clear skies and drive into cloud and even rain on the eastern side. Occassionally that reverses but that's much rarer.

I often see cloud over the sea around Sydney but clear most other parts of the sky. That is a very very common behaviour. No doubt due to the difference in sea air masses and air coming from land masses.

Sydney forecast for Wed is partly cloudy. I think that will mean a low probability of seeing directly the partial eclipse here.

I see forecast for Cairns isolated showers til Tues (wed forecast is not up).

If I were going to Cairns (I am not) I would be inclined to go inland somewhere.

Its very observable that rain/cloud do not like to go over easterly mountain ranges (thats why the eastern side is usually lush and green and the western side is drier).

Getting a vantage point above mountains blocking the view would be the next issue as it is occurring low down in the sky.

I myself will probably go to my dark site where it is very likely to be totally clear whilst Sydney is very likely to be fully or partially blocking the view.

I have had the past few lunar eclipses and the transit now where Sydney weather blocked the view and I don't enjoy looking to little openings in the cloud to give a 2 second view!

My 2C.

I'd be scouting for inland unobstructed views around Cairns (limited roads up there as well).

I'd be asking locals how often is there cloud out to sea in the mornings there? (I think I already know the answer). I was up there on holidays last year in early Nov and it was slightly cloudy out to sea up to about 15 degrees, as I recall, almost every morning but sunny skies elsewhere and it would clear up later in the morning. So I would put the probability as high you will get a partial view and low it is totally obstructed and low as being totally unobstructed along the coast. I see the streaming cloud at present is coming down from New Guinea and slowly moving easterly.


Greg.

[Paul Haese]

Like I said things have not chhanged here since living here. Cloud building on the range will not allow viewing west for a long way down the center line. The roads out west are not great, any rain in that region could mean closure. There will be thousands of people out there travelling those roads in the 24 hours prior.

I have viewed two eclipses through cloud and I can say if it is broken and thinning then you will most likely see something from Cairns. If your only reason for travelling to this eclipse is to take award winning images then forget coming up. There will be cloud on the day, the high pressure ridge will mean nothing other than clearer skies. From what I understand many of you have never seen an eclipse with your own eyes and yet are bringing mountains of equipment. Just come with tripod and camera is my opinion. Cloud will kill any settings you might have in a program; you have to shoot with the conditions and the conditions with cloud will mean mainly over blown images with cloud.

All this speculation on what the conditions will be like is just going to build anxiety. It will be cloudy, you might not see it. Many people in China just kilometers from us did not see the corona. You have to have some luck with you and you are coming to the tropics (which is very different from further south) in the wet season. Plan for just sitting in the darkness and you might just be surprised.

[RichardJ]

Good advice Paul.

There's lots to see and do around Cairns. I'm going to make the most of it. If I get to see the eclipse it will be a blessing.

RichardJ

[Blaznee]

This mornings view of the rising sun (position only) at 06:40 from Trinity Beach.
Storms out to sea usually mean a fairly high cloud ceiling.

Gary

[cyclone]

yesterday, i dropped off some lychees at a stall at Rusty's markets, try them....

[rowena]

Clouds can be a blessing too for a photo.... One of my pics from Ceduna 2002 - The clouds only broke seconds before totality!!!!


http://sphotos-a.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/283526_10151124818649983_1304764581 _n.jpg

[rowena]

Road closure List from http://www.eclipsecairns.com/

Kuranda Range Lookout & Rex Lookout:
Closed.

Lake Morris Road:
Closed. Residential Traffic Only.

Oak Beach:
will be open to vehicular traffic however parking is limited. Once the limited parking capacity is reached the area will be closed. Viewing at Oak Beach is not recommended.

Wangetti Beach:
A large parking area will be available opposite Wangetti College for a gold coin donation to the school. The beach is accessible from this parking area along a 400 metre road. The beach access road will be closed to vehicle traffic for the morning.

Palm Cove Boat ramp:
closed from 4pm Tuesday, November 13 until 12 midday on November 14.

Palm Cove Jetty:
Open until reached capacity. Fishing from the jetty is prohibited between midnight and 8am on Wednesday 14 November.

Yorkeys Knob:
Ray and Janet streets closed. Residential traffic only.

Trinity Beach:
Southern end Vasey Esplanade/Possum Street closed. Residential traffic only.

Port Douglas and Mossman
Port Douglas Esplanade Four Mile Beach (between Macrossan – Mowbray) Closed with barriers on Macrossan and Mowbray Streets after the Garrick Street intersection.. Residential traffic only.

Mowbray Street and Macrossan Street:
Closed. Residential traffic only.

Island Point Road:
Closed with barriers at Murphy and Wharf Streets. Residential traffic only.

Murphy Street:
South of Owen Street closed. Residential traffic only.

Flagstaff and Alexandra Range Lookout in the Daintree:
Closed.

Changed traffic conditions will also apply for the Eclipse Marathon and the Port Douglas Eclipse Festival. Please drive safely and obey all signage.

[cyclone]

sorry i missed this quote.

All they said is once the trough moves off, Cairns will return to a SE moist airflow.

Please let me know if the stream works, as it will be HOT subject on the ABC radio from Monday.

[Paul Haese]

If the eclipse was this morning the conditions would have been near perfect. The image below was taken just prior to dawn. At 638am there was no cloud at all.

[cyclone]

it appears that the Mt Carbine camera has stopped uploading.
Fault in equipment ?
internet connection down at pub ?
Stolen ?

Looks like i have to drive up there tomorrow to have a look.....

[Danack]

I've just checked the pressure charts predicted for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. It looks like the weather on Wednesday morning will be almost identical to the weather on Tuesday, so i'm really interested in hearing people's reports from then.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml

[Liz]

yes, had noticed that ... nope its OK.

[cyclone]

I've tried to ring the Mt Carbine pub, and can't get through (been trying for a few hours), can someone go there and see if everything is ok.

[cyclone]

ok, i got through, no problem

[Paul Haese]

I am getting up tomorrow to make another report.

[JethroB76]

Flying in tomorrow. Really dont know whether we'll be beachside Wednesday or doing a midnight run inland

[Paul Haese]

Scattered cloud about this morning with some showers. Saw the sun several times, which had a really nice prominence on it. At 635-645 there were good breaks. Trade winds are blowing again this generates the cloud on out to see. The high pressure ridge while still present hhas weakened to allow the trade winds to blow from the south east.

I'll report again tomorrow.

[axle01]

Hey Paul can you see the Kuranda Range from where you are and is it clear or covered in cloud, we are taking the train up to Kuranda and it is stopping at Red Bluff lookout for an hour for the Eclipse

[cyclone]

webcams for around 6.38am and sky clarity from last night/morning

[brucel]

I know others on this forum have warned of the poor road conditions inland in far North Queensland but I fell obliged to point out the dangers to our international visitors.

Most roads in this region are barely graded dirt roads often only wide enough for one vehicle. They are used infrequently and are designed for only a few vehicles oer day. They will likely not have been graded since the beginning of the dry season so will be quite rough. There is a lot of roadworks presently before the wet season sets in and If there is any rain at all they will turn quickly to mud slides that with any traffic at all will become impassable.
Plus to get from Cairns to an inland eclipse viewing site will take at least 4-5 hours in ideal conditions.

Attending to drive on any of these inland roads, even the well graded main road, at night is madness. You will put yourself at grave risk and also risk the lives of others who have to attempt your rescue. It is simply irresponsible.

A single road accident or breakdown or bogged vehicle will close these roads. Given the number of uninformed visitors who will, despite the warnings, attempt driving on these roads there is a very high likelihood of this happening.

If you must go inland, prepare well and go today with adequate supplies to camp out for at least 2 nights.

Otherwise, stay on the coast!

<end rant>

[Phil Hart]

I echo the comments about needing luck, enjoying whatever you get and not travelling far inland (anywhere off the sealed roads) without being *very* well prepared. But I love watching the weather, which is what this thread is for, so I'll keep going ;).

The family meteorologist is now staying with us, so these comments are marginally better informed, but still my own amateur assesment of conditions.

While the low pressure trough has moved offshore, there is a strong pressure gradient between it and the high pressure ridge forming along the coast, which is driving the strong winds today. And the effect of the trough is still lingering, with instability at higher altitudes combined with the strong easterly winds against the ranges allowing the significant cloud formation and heavy showers last night and this morning.

Sunday morning was a bit of an anomaly, with clear sky behind the trough before the easterly conditions re-established themselves afterwards. That's not what Wednesday morning will be like.

The pressure gradient should now flatten out a little over the next two days, so the wind on Wednesday will not be like today, but you can still expect some wind during the day. Not sure how much the calming effect overnight will have for eclipse morning.

As the trough moves properly away and the high pressure builds, the subsidence associated with that helps put a bit of a lid on the cloud formation, reducing the 'scattered showers' of this morning, to just 'isolated showers' by Wednesday. It should also mean that cloud extends inland less on Wednesday morning than it has today.

60km inland which as far as you can travel on sealed roads (if you can get past hoardes of others attempting the same thing) is not as far west as would be ideal, but in a stable easterly pattern it has been far enough to make a difference. That's what I'm betting on, so heading on a scouting trip now and will head inland Tuesday evening to setup. Mt Carbine is often not far enough, and many days is worse than the coast.

Since there's no guarantees in eclipse chasing. I think a reasonable estimate of the odds goes like this..

The dice will be rolled at midnight. If you're on the coast, you need it to show a 1 or 2 for clear skies, with 3 and 4 giving you progressively cloudier conditions but some view. If you're inland a 2,3,4 and even a 5 should give you a clear view. But of course you could still get unlucky with a 1 or 6!

Whether your particular location gets the lucky roll of the dice on Wednesday morning, nobody can say and nobody and no computer model will be able to say any more than that even Tuesday night. If you look at a satellite image around 5am you may be able to see which way the dice is loaded. But by then it'll be too late to move.

So we're all going to need luck! Hope you get some!

Phil

[southerncross]

Dimbulah west of Mareeba is a good 90 km inland and is sealed all the way.

[Astrobserver99]

Arriving in Cairns tomorrow. The weather does not look good. I decided not to take my equipment and just watch whatever is visible. I will be spending a week afterwards driving to Townsville and just relaxing:eyepop:

[multiweb]

It might be out of the totality path though. Not by much.

[multiweb]

Had a look at various locations all week and weather and I have a gut feeling that (as of now) Cairns and coast to Port Douglas might actually be the best bet. 30-40% clouds. Out west seems worse (around Mt Carbine) and south east Mareeba looks like it might have a patch of clouds developing and hanging in between the range and the coast. Wind hasn't changed all week SE. So far I'll still stay in cairns. Leaving tomorrow morning. Good luck to all. :thumbsup:

[Groboz]

Flying in tonight and will probably take my chances in Cairns (Trinity Beach). :)

[icytailmark]

suppose to be raining on wednesday. Bought my solar glasses for nothing :(

[cyclone]

Mt Carbine webcam down due to Skymesh outage http://t.co/2Ycl6dYZ (http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2F2Ycl6dY Z&h=IAQEhxkGpAQGmUPzPfW5SMqT5wGZrLh8l Itq8otDdxqav1Q&s=1) tomorrow morning images the most important #eclipse2012

[southerncross]

Currently clear sunshine at Mary farms just to the south of Mt Carbine with a patch of cloud to the north east while patchy scuddy cloud here at Kewarra beach in cairns.
My inlaws have property at Mary farms so I can give you some up to the minute info as we also have Internet connection there as well, will be heading up tomorrow arvo if anyone would like to know.

[gaa_ian]

Well for my part I am staying here in Edmonton.
I have 20 or so people joining me for some astronomy the night before and the eclipse the next morning.
In any case I am looking forward to catching up with some IIS'ers on the Wednesday night up at Palm cove :-)

[cyclone]

From BOM

[shahgazer]

Great advice Brucel! Thanks :thumbsup:

Reached from Kuala Lumpur last night, and arrived in Cairns this morning.

I drove from Cairns, all the way to Port Douglas this afternoon, and was greeted with high winds and occasional rain. :eyepop:

My mind was almost set to go inland, but your advice is very logical. :thumbsup:

I'll take my chances in the coastal area, maybe at Ellis Beach.

[southerncross]

There are three routes inland from Cairns, all are sealed roads. I would not recommend the Gillies range, but both the Kuranda (Cairns)and Rex (Port Douglas) are both quite drivable and will get you past the range within two hours even at 50 KM an hour. Either will see you at 30 to 50 km from the coast within 2/3 hrs quite easily, I travel both regularly and can get from Cairns to Mt Carbine within two hrs doing under the speed limit. Mareeba is an easy 40-50 minute drive from The Smithfield roundabout. From there you can go N. W or S

Sheesh there is even white lines and reflecter post's all the way This pic is from a good 150 km north of Mt Carbine, sealed rd all the way to Laura http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/824/mapoon108.jpg/

[cyclone]

keep an eye on these cameras http://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/Traffic-cameras-by-location/Traffic-cameras.aspx?region=Far%20North

The main one would be Caravonica, the camera is looking south, so keep an eye on the right lane, that lane heads north towards Smithfield roundabout

[GrahamL]

Thats a pretty fair bit of road Jeff,so you guys live local,wheres the best chance of a decent view going to be coast or inland?

[cyclone]

There is also the Palmerston Hwy

[cyclone]

if a 1 in a million chance the internet/mobiles goes down, one can hear a sky clarity report on UHF 25 every 5 minutes (Mareeba) it can be heard in some places in Cairns (north of airport)

[JethroB76]

I wasnt considering bush-bashing when I said "inland", rather heading west on one of the seemingly well established main roads

[Eclipser]

Dear all,

This morning, weatherzone.com claims:
" Isolated showers about the coast and ranges. Fine well inland. Tablelands. Cloudy periods about the coast, ranges and southern Tablelands, tending to overcast south of Cairns. Mostly sunny inland west of a line Mount Garnet - Mareeba - Cape Melville."

It's OK, I think this begins to become reliable forecasts. No coast for me, I'm heading today to the point I've indicated last time :



Only statistically better of course, but I'll bet on it as well (like Philip). Mulligan Hwy is by far not a dangerous road, and today we should avoid the main crowd. I think I'll be there in the beginning of the afternoon, finding a good spot near the road.

Good luck to all of you, the dices will soon be rolled :)

[Garbz]

We're here in Cairns and there's nothing resembling isolated showers. It seems showers ever few minutes and well overcast otherwise. Based on the NOAA satellite you're going to need to get much further than 20km inland to get a clear sky.

I'm wondering if there's even a point going out to somewhere like that spot on the highway. The totality will happen at 13deg above the horizon. 7timer shows cloud coverage both low and high. When you're at that spot you may find that the coastal clouds still obscure the sun during totality and almost definitely beforehand.

[Paul Haese]

Today we got up again and this time we did not see te sun at 638. Heavy cloud all around including up on the ranges, showering. Tomorrows forecast looks better but it will be clouded not matter what. Best of luck to everyone and see you on the other side.

[cyclone]

sky clarity (white) from last night, clear skies is above the red line

[icytailmark]

if i were in queensland now i would head to the western coast

[erick]

Moderate cloud cover in Mt Carbine this morning at 6:38am. Plenty of clear patches. Drove towards the coast around 8:30am and hit heavy cloud and rain before Mt Molloy.

Mind you, I wish I had brought a big scope. M31 up at a guesstimated 30 deg in the late evening is very tempting for a southerner! Seeing looked very poor last night.

[Stephen P]

For the last few days from Palm Cove the cloud seems to be a few miles out to sea obscuring Green Island. Planes coming into Cairns appear to be dropping out of the clouds at about 1000ft. Managed to see the Southern Cross though which felt promising.

It will all depend on the high pressure system. At the moment I can see blue sky from the esplanade.

[theflipside]

I grew up in Trinity Beach so am sitting tight here for nostalgia value... You can get inland in a regular car but it will be prtty damn busy: I'd say a fair chance of a traffic jam especially on the Kuranda range. One thing to consider if you are trying to get up to the tablelands is that the coastline is flat, then has a big mountain range, then drops a little and is flat on what is called the tablelands. Given that the sun will be low in the sky there is a pretty good chance that cloud build up will be sitting right at the peaks of said mountain range blocking your view from the tablelands. I'm betting on rain with a slightly better chance of seeing the sun from the coast (clouds don't bank up out on the ocean - as much) versus from the tablelands (clouds bank at the top of the range). It will be a pretty cool event in terms of darkness, birds freaking out, people freaking out either way: if we can see/photograph the sun, bonus!

Hopeful Prediction....

@@@@
Tablelands _______/\ @@@@ Clouds * Sun
\
\
\____8_Me_~~~~~Ocean~~~~~~

[gaa_ian]

Hi Patrick
Welcome to IIS !
I am hoping you are right and for the same reasons, I am sitting tight in Edmonton.
I have a whole bunch of people joining me for my eclipse event (http://everythingastronomy.com/total-solar-eclipse-14thnov2012/).
I love your diagram :lol:
This morning was very promising, with clear skies (except to the east and low)
Unfortunately this spread towards the coast by 6:30am :-(
With some luck, the drop in winds wil be some :help:

[mccann73]

Latest bom forcast for tomorrow, in cairns it has cleared a little, SE has eased a bit as well. Good luck everyone!
(Sorry for text formatting, done on a phone)

WEDNESDAY
Isolated showers about the coast and ranges. Areas of morning drizzle over the southern Tablelands. Fine in the far west. Moderate SE winds, fresh and gusty about the coast. Fire Danger: Moderate to High. Solar Eclipse: Light showers about the coast, ranges, tending to periods of drizzle over the southern Tablelands. Cloudy periods about the coast, ranges and southern Tablelands, tending to overcast south of Cairns. Mostly sunny inland west of a line Mount Garnet - Mareeba - Cape Melville.Cairns:*Cloudy periods with a light morning shower or two. Moderate SE winds, fresh and gusty during the day. Fire Danger: High.Cairns:Morning shower or two.Min*22Max*31UV*14Mareeba:Possib le morning shower.Min*18Max*30UV*14Innisfail:C loudy. Shower or two.Min*21Max*28UV*14Cooktown:Showe r or two.Min*24Max*31UV*14UV Alert from 8:10 am to 4:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]

[dannat]

Totally clear skies at Palmer river, though windy.
Heading back to our secret ;) ASV rendezvous point now

[Phil Hart]

Here are a few options based on what James and I found yesterday, including where I will be and how to get my crude reports on the weather inland. Company is welcome as long as you don't stand in front of the scope! ;)

Mulligan Highway

After Mt Carbine, the Mulligan Highway heads WNW for about 25km, which puts the view back along it roughly in line with the sun in the morning. There are lots of areas along this road where you can pull off the road onto clear areas beside it (steep-ish road verges though). Towards the end of this stretch you should be in the zone where there is a reasonable chance of clear skies towards the sun. Closer to Mt Carbine your chances drop quicky.

After this stretch, it gets quite tricky (especially in the dark) to find spots where you could safely pull off the road and see the eclipse low in the east.

Hill past Bob's Lookout
16°27'58.01"S
144°52'28.99"E

About 1.2km past Bob's lookout, there is a track going up on the left hand side of the road. There's a bit of a lip getting onto the road so you'll probably graze the bottom of the car. It's rocky after that but otherwise ok in a 2WD. About 100m up (walk it first) there's a hill with reasonabe horizons though you're situated amongst trees (sparse, mostly burnt etc). Sunrise should be through a gap in the ranges immediately in front. The problem with this site is that it is very exposed to the wind which is not great for imaging. There's not a lot of room for parking along this dirt road but there is some, and the road extends quite a way. [Latest report at 5pm is it is very windy here.]

Flat spot on Mulligan Highway
16°24'5.66"S
144°44'55.30"E

This is where I will be.

From the road this is not obvious, but there is a bit of a verge where you can pull off and an overgrown track that opens out into a large clear area. The western end of this field has a large space with good eastern horizon but only a very small area up on a rise for an earlier view of the sun closer to sunrise. If you reach Spring Creek on the Mulligan Highway you've gone just too far.


I'll leave my satellite Spot Messenger on from when I leave home this evening (around 7pm). So to follow where I am visit: http://tinyurl.com/philspot

As well as the numerous track points (every ten minutes), you will also see 'Check In' messages and 'Custom Messages' (both of which must be programmed in advance, and the content is not shown on this webpage anyway). But I encode some more information in these messages by the minutes past the hour when I send them, with the answer scaled from 05 (good) to 55 (bad).

The 'Check In' message functions as a weather update. A message sent at 05 minutes past the hour means crystal clear skies, while a message sent at 55 minutes past the hours means little hope of seeing the sun based on what I see at the time. Anything in between you can intepret to be scaled accordingly.

The 'Custom Message' functions as a traffic update. A message sent at 05 past the hour means traffic looks ok where I am and that there is space around me to park a car. 55 mins past the hour means don't bother trying to drive out to me. Bear in mind though that the worst traffic problems are likely to be back in the ranges which I will (hopefully) have no idea about.

It's a fair bit further, but worth knowing that at the Palmer River Roadhouse there is a temporary phone tower setup by emergency services so there is good reception (including data) in the immediate vicinity of the roadhouse. There are not great observing options here though.

Good luck wherever you are!

cheers
Phil
0438 037 567 (useless after ~7pm)

[icytailmark]

gunna rain tommorow :( missed out on the venus transit and now the solar eclipse. I hate the weather gods

[cyclone]

do you think i have enough gear in my stevenson screen ?

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/total-solar-eclipse---weather

[Paul Haese]

Clear tonight in Palm Cove. I think there is a good chance of clear skies in the morning; maybe greater than 60%. Base on my time living here, if the sky is clear at night off the coast then you will have not much cloud in the morning. The IR loop shows a stream south of Cairns but nothing north of Cairns. The streams are moving from the south east to the north west. The visual shows very scattered cloud. Based on that I am more confident of success. Time will tell though. :)

[MortonH]

Hope you're right, Paul.

The weather forecast down here in Sydney is more and more cloud. Doh!

[Paul Haese]

Bit of cloud drifting around now, with some light showers.

[seeker372011]

weather update anyone?

[rowena]

patches of clear sky around cairns.. but starting to come over again

[StephenM]

I'm in a cane field near Yorkey's, about 65% cloud here at 3:45.

[icytailmark]

im in my nice warm bed back in sydney. Its raining :(

[MrAstro]

It's raining here at cairns. Very disappointing.:sadeyes:

[Paul Haese]

Palm Cove, partly cloudy at present.

[mithrandir]

Not raining in my part of Sydney, but 100% cloud.

[loki78]

Partly cloudy at trinity beach no rain for sometime now

[icytailmark]

karl from today show is at palm cove.

[JohnH]

100% wall to wall clag here in Hornsby Heights.

[pgc hunter]

Fully clear in Melbourne so will go out and view the partial eclipse here.

[fungussface]

There are stars above in Northern CAirns, but some cloud to the East.
Heading out to Holloways Beach. Wish me luck.:thumbsup:

[Groboz]

Also at trinity beach rocks. Apart from one long anoying black cloud thats not budging it looks promising. Fingers crossed people.

[Paul Haese]

Broken cloud here, just like China and Ceduna. Looking much better than last night.

[gregbradley]

Sydney, 100% total overcast and light drizzle. Been sunny here for most of the last few months.

Greg.

[SkyViking]

Good luck to you all up there, I hope you get to grab some amazing photos. It's looking promising here in Auckland, a bit of scattered clouds around with plenty of blue sky in between.

[bloodhound31]

Wall to wall cloud here in Canberra but as David said... no-one Cairns...

[Greenswale]

Absolutely clear to the east from the west of Melbourne.

Bodes well for Snake Valley this weekend?

[michaellxv]

Watching through thin cloud in Adelaide, should get better as it goes along.

[Tamtarn]

Beautiful clear skies here in the Yarra Valley. Watching from our backyard. Awesome!!!

[barx1963]

Lovely here in Colac, have a view AVI's taken of the early part.
Looking good!

Malcolm

[Larryp]

No joy at all in Sydney-totally clouded out.:(

[rmuhlack]

clear skies here in the Riverina :) Shooting a timelapse with my makeshift pinhole projector

[swannies1983]

Wow, fantastic eclipse! Clouds have cleared in Adelaide so now will view the partial phase.

[fauxpas]

Looking forward to seeing some footage of this as the central coast was/is clouded out...

/me slips eclipse glasses back in drawer for another 200 years...

[MortonH]

The ABC coverage was terrible. Video kept breaking up. The eclipse looked really nice though.

[Adelastro1]

And the clouds parted like the Red Sea! Wow so lucky. Rain and cloud covering sun 5 mins before totality then managed to see it all. At Machans Beach north of Cairns airport. Got some good images too.

[JohnG]

Perfectly clear here in Cootamundra, noticeable dimming in sunlight, very cold in the atmoshere though, contrails everywhere.

Cheers

[Rodstar]

Totally clouded out on the central coast.....I had hoped to give the binos a go with the filters I made for the transit of Venus....unfortunately not.

[StephenM]

Absolutely awesome! Clouds cleared just before totality at Yorkeys
Incredible views!

[cookiemonster]

Perfect timing south of Cairns. We watched at the mouth of the Mulgrave (munchero inlet). Saw a good lead in and most of totality. Motor on our boat broke on the way home. See? Perfect timing!

[ZeroID]

Pretty good in Auckland, NZ. :thumbsup: Took the 80mm with Baader to work and had a bit of an 'Outreach' event. Maybe 50-60 people. Used the 15mm GSO Superview EP,. Made it smaller but clear and easier to view and track. (I usually use the 9mm TMB on solar)

Clouds were come and go but plenty of good viewing which let those without glasses etc see it through dimmed visibility. Some awesome sunspots to make it a bit interesting. Got some big 'Wows !!' and slightly confused looks as well. Temperature dropped and the wind rose. 'Fascinating' was the most usual comment.

Awesome, now I've got to lug the scope and tripod a couple of kilometers up the hill back to the car tonight. No local parking :shrug:

[ThunderChild]

At Palm Cove. It blew clear 10 mins before totality... And was absolutely awesome. Utterly breathtaking!!!

[JethroB76]

The Mulligan Hwy proved to be a superb location and we certainly weren't alone - enjoyed an incredibly clear night of observation prior to the dawn finale. So very glad we made the trip to leave the clouds and rain behind