AR1429 - X5-class solar flare

[mithrandir]

Quoting SDO issued 2012-03-07 04:31:01 UTC:

Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected an X5-class solar flare from big sunspot AR1429. Radiation storms and radio blackouts are possible.

Obtained from the "3D Sun" iPhone app.

[aijii]

from spaceweather.com:

<snip>
GEOMAGNETIC STORM UPDATE: A CME propelled toward Earth by this morning's X5-class solar flare is expected to reach our planet on March 8th at 0625 UT (+/- 7 hr). Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, who prepared the CME's forecast track, say the impact could spark a strong-to-severe geomagnetic storm. Sky watchers at all latitudes should be alert for auroras. Aurora alerts: text, phone.
</snip>

Here in Melbourne, it is a Full moon tonight, with the moon due to be out ALL night.

Any hope of seeing any aurora from out of town ?

[mithrandir]

I don't know about Melbourne. but the Sun could have gone out and Sydney wouldn't know about it.

Latest from 3D Sun:

GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A Kp=6 geomagnetic storm is in progress following the impact of a CME on March 7th (0400UT). Auroras spotted over northern-tier US States.

with an aurora photo from over Lake Superior.

[Suzy]

Camilla Sdo posted this very informative Q&A of this event on facebook today. Just thought it was worthy of a share here...

[fringe_dweller]

looks pretty solid chance! best in looong time

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20120307_014400_anim.tim-den.gif

if strong enough moon wont matter, even city wont, good low S/W to S/E horizon will matter most

[aijii]

exciting. except for the overcast cloud cover.

How long do aurorae from this category/strength of flare/CME typically last ?

[aijii]

what is that link actually depicting ?

[mithrandir]

Try this one (http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News030712-X5-4.html) - straight from the horses mouth.

[mswhin63]

It looked funny to me like a bit of seating flatulence. The stuff that burps out the side of the pants :lol:

[fringe_dweller]

the predicted behaviour and path of of the CME

[fringe_dweller]

really big ones can produce activity anywhere between 24 and 48 hours or so, this one is predicted to last between 24 and 36 hours in duration

seems it will kick in maybe around midnight adelaide time perhaps?

[BPO]

Nothing visible here at 44° 25' 2" S other than a very bright moon in a perfectly clear sky.

Maybe it's still too early?

My lightning detectors are showing a lot of activity though, as is another in the South Island, even though there don't appear to be any thunderstorms anywhere about.

Maybe we should dust off our old AM radios...

[aijii]

I can see nothing but a perfectly cloudy sky here in Melbourne :(

[ballaratdragons]

Same here :sadeyes:

but I will keep checking the sky

[aijii]

i will keep checking the forum.

and the sky ;)

dilemma - i am hell tired, and thinking of going for a drive but i am tentative because of the stupid clouds.

[ballaratdragons]

I don't know where you would drive to get away from the cloud. The whole state is about to get socked in: http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite/vic

[aijii]

yeah. my point exactly :(

although it looks like the clouds are moving eastwards ?

[ballaratdragons]

Yes, it was blowing in from the Southeast, but swung around and is now blowing towards east-Northeast.
Look at what is coming in from the South West! :mad2:

But, I will still keep checking. I only need a sucker hole at the right time after midnight :thumbsup:

[fringe_dweller]

i'm not sure i would recommend a big drive for it .. i have the car ready, but i'm not sure what i'll do .. definitely recommend for people like Ken who live in the country to have a look now and then .. the indicators on spaceweather are interesting, the density of solar wind is growing, thats a good sign .. wind speed is still low, you would want solar wind speeds to be up around 600 km/sec or higher, Interplanetary Mag. Field indictors have jumped! but Bz is still north, and thats not good, so polarity of is wrong, we need it to switch south .. at those levels if it was south we would be in business :)
dont stress, this is just the beginning of solar max, should have 2 or 3 years, with maybe at least a couple of times a year of decent displays for southern mainland viewing ..
i do remember some big X class flares that were fizzes at our latitudes last solar max, due to mixture polarity of earths magnetosphere and polarity of plasma stream/CME negating chance of aurora .. i think WA might have the show better? or worse it could be during our daytime, not the first time that happened

[aijii]

are you planning on staying up ?

I'm thinking of retiring, and setting a tirade of alarms to wake me up in a few hours....

[fringe_dweller]

oh IMF jumping around now, it was high a minute ago, maybe going south?

[aijii]

one day, I will understand everything you just typed.

but now i just read in awe ;)

I just read elsewhere that aurorae in north/south poles are complementary of each other.. what is Bz ? does that mean the show is better for guys up north, if the Bz is north ?

will open the googles now.

btw - my mrs lived in northern alberta for 1 year, in 2007-2008. for what was a period of solar minimum, she saw heaps of aurorae...

Biyatch.

[fringe_dweller]

hehe i'm no scientist or academic just can read the 'form' as an aurora punter, its really not difficult to read once you are familiar with it, from this webpage

'If the IMF points south -- a condition scientists call "southward Bz" -- then the IMF can partially cancel Earth's magnetic field at the point of contact.
"When Bz is south, that is, opposite Earth's magnetic field, the two fields link up," explains Christopher Russell, a Professor of Geophysics and Space Physics at UCLA. "You can then follow a field line from Earth directly into the solar wind" -- or from the solar wind to Earth. South-pointing Bz's open a door through which energy from the solar wind can reach Earth's atmosphere!

Southward Bz's often herald widespread auroras, triggered by solar wind gusts or coronal mass ejections that are able to inject energy into our planet's magnetosphere.'

from here

http://spaceweather.com/glossary/imf.html

[ballaratdragons]

aijii, this might explain Bz for you: http://www.ips.gov.au/Category/Solar/Solar%20Conditions/Solar%20Wind%20Clock%20Angle/Solar%20Wind%20Clock%20Angle.php

The more South it goes (or higher in numbers) the better for us :thumbsup:

As you can see (at time of this post) the green indicator is north.

[aijii]

ahh yeah i was reading the spaceweather link.. posted and then realised you guys had posted as well!

thanks, it makes more sense now.

so... any aurorae yet my lady asked ;)

[ballaratdragons]

Nah, keep an eye on that Bz graph and check the sky from Midnight onwards.

I just checked outside and there are some huge sucker holes growing here.

[aijii]

alright, am going to hit the sack with a couple alarms set.

fingers crossed.

[mithrandir]

SDO is reporting a CME hit 2012-03-08:1100 UTC (that's 2200 AEDT) accompanied with an aurora photo from northern Russia. They are saying "high latitude observers" should be on the lookout.

[ballaratdragons]

All we need now is for some 'Low Latitude' reports :thumbsup:

[Mikezoom]

-BZ atm.

Certainly an exciting situation. Let's hope some Aussie's get to see it!!!

EDIT: Hey Ken, it was for a minute or two on: http://www.solarham.com/

:) Me getting excited!!!

[ballaratdragons]

Not according to this live graph (updates every 10 minutes)
http://www.ips.gov.au/Category/Solar/Solar%20Conditions/Solar%20Wind%20Clock%20Angle/Solar%20Wind%20Clock%20Angle.php

Get excited when it looks like this attachment :thumbsup:

[Mikezoom]

Finger's crossed it does that!

Mike. :)

[BPO]

It was a clear night but not a thing was seen over southern NZ, as far as I'm aware. The all-sky camera didn't detect any auroral activity. Maybe tonight?

[fringe_dweller]

well that was a good dummy run for the real thing ;) :lol:
I was getting suspicious when the CME took so long to get here, in my experience the faster they get here, and some were in 12 hours last max.! the better the chances, demonstrates a virileness and eagerness not these flaccid puffers .. so maybe was more of a glancing blow then that new fangled predictive modelling showed? maybe i interpreted it wrong? the good old SOHO movies sure looked more glancing blow, need that point blank bullseye factor .. i certainly chased X5s that were duds last time, good way to lose friends lol aurora chasing from southern mainland oz is NOT for the faint hearted :lol:
us in the cheap seats appreciate the input from the good seats in NZ BPO :)

[ballaratdragons]

Lets hope it stays this way for tonight: http://www.ips.gov.au/Category/Solar/Solar%20Conditions/Solar%20Wind%20Clock%20Angle/Solar%20Wind%20Clock%20Angle.php

In the Red and In the south :)

[aijii]

yeah i set my alarms for 12:30, 2am, 4:30, 5:30.

always green. always north. the sucker holes I saw last night before I went to bed were all gone when i got up to check. really very thick clouds.

at least the skies are clear now - hopefully stay that way.

take two :)

[aijii]

Just got this..


SUBJ: IPS AURORA ALERT 0920 UT ON 09 Mar 2012 HIGH LATITUDES
ISSUED AT 0920 UT ON 09 Mar 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE


GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS. AURORA MAY BE OBSERVED
DURING LOCAL NIGHT TIME HOURS IN GOOD OBSERVING CONDITIONS
AT HIGH LATITUDES.


...

Bz is just over -ve 10 at the moment... hmm I wonder what it was on the 27th of Jan when that Alex guy captured the aurora from Flinders ?

[ballaratdragons]

Yep, far bigger tonight than it was last night. We could be in for a good show in southern Victoria and Tasmania :thumbsup:
http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/South.html

Notice the small fragments of Aurora right next to tassie :)

[aijii]

apparently mid-latitude aurora alert, from solarham.com

edit: lol @ the small aurora fragments - is that a mistake do you think ?

are those predictions kept historically ? I want to see what that picture showed for the night that Alex took the vids from flinders!

[ballaratdragons]

:thumbsup:
It's looking very promising for tonight. It is almost total dark here. Almost time to go up the back paddock and set up the camera with Thermos of coffee, snacks, etc. :)

[aijii]

yeah, I think we're going to go to arthurs seat, should get a good view of the southern horizon from up there one would hope.

[ballaratdragons]

UPDATE:

I have marked a current Aurora with an orange arrow that will be visible from Tassie and possibly from very south Victoria.
Cloudy here and I can't see any sky.
I hope some of you see this one:

[aijii]

Yeah super overcast. Juat got back from flinders... Bleh.


Maybe next time!!

[Tamtarn]

A link to Aurora video taken March 9 Kingborough Tasmania.

http://vimeo.com/38224262

Barb

[aijii]

i'm sure there'll be more!