How high can it go? $$

[[1ponders]]

Not having a TV reception, nor radio reception these things tend to sneak up on me while I'm cruising the net, I've just seen that the Aus $ had cracked the $1.10 US mark. I predicted to a friend last year (and I know nothing about currency exchange) that it would hit $1.15 US and possibly as high as $1.25.

Should I start a new business in psychic exchange rates (bet I can do a better job than the market analysts :lol: )? How high will it go?

[multiweb]

What do you reckon? Time to buy some USD?

[supernova1965]

Not if the Republicans don't play ball with the Democrats the USD will be used for wallpaper:screwy:

[[1ponders]]

no but I'm definitely thinking of that new Feathertouch focuser for my VC200..... that is until I arranged for the plumber to replace 3/4 of my roof guttering today :doh:

[acropolite]

Hmm the rising dollar's making me itch, I'm already guilty of browsing the AP (http://www.astro-physics.com/) and Bisque (http://www.bisque.com/sc/pages/ParamountMX.aspx)sites, the scary thing is that once spendthrift fever sets in (the signs are there, hot sweats in the middle of the night, adding up what can be sold on a spreadsheet, feelings of guilt in advance), of course, there's only one cure, spend your way out..

You're a bad influence Ponders.....:P

[Max Vondel]

With the Republicans holding Obama to ransom I think that $1.25
is very much on the cards Paul. Only a drop in local interest rates would change the Dollar outcomes perhaps. So how LOW can America GO?
If the Americans default we are all in trouble.............
:screwy:

[[1ponders]]

Thanks Phil. :D Would you like me to stand on the sidelines and cheer or try to distract Liz while you place your AP order? But ooohhhh that MX looks sexy Phil. :D I could always modify the lower room on the observatory and make the roof roll off and put a second pier in. You'd be welcome to set it up there, more reasons to visit the grand kids in Brissie ;)

[[1ponders]]

Damn don't talk like that Peter, I don't know what I'd do if it does get to 1.25 :prey: Where would I start ..... to go bankrupt :lol:

[Marke]

Its good timing , my AP mount is due in the next few weeks and still have
balance to pay hope it keeps going up - every cent is a bonus :thumbsup:

[[1ponders]]

Might be worth considering upping to the next size mount Mark ;)

[Marke]

Nooo I didnt read that !

[[1ponders]]

:lol: I'm a baaad boy :lol: :D

[gregbradley]

I personally think we are probably near a high. I doubt we'll see $1.25.
Its easy to think the dollar will continue to rise when its at highs. It went up as far as I can tell because the CPI figure was worse than expected (thanks Bananas). This means the likelihood of an interest rate drop is decreased and perhaps the expectation of a rate rise is back on the horizon (unlikely, the economy is dead at the moment).

Our interest rates are about to fall more than likely (one major reason our dollar is high). The USA printing money program finished in July as far as I know. The Republican/Democrat arguing over debt ceiling is just brinkmanship and a default just won't happen. The USA is likely to recover sooner than the pundits think. Don't forget the bulk of the smart people in the world live there.

If you're gonna buy your USA product now is the time in my opinion. Even if it goes up a tad more its not that much difference.

One thing though is the Aussie dollar is a strong trending currency so whatever the trend is it is likely to do that for a while.

Greg.

[ballaratdragons]

An economist was on the radio today saying that it is highly possible to go as high as $1.50
but more likely to sit here around $1.10 for a short while before it drops back to about $1.00

[mithrandir]

I keep putting off buying $US to have some cash for our trip.

I could have bought at $1.10 a while back. Put it off.

I was starting to think would have to buy at $1.07+-1. Put it off.

Now back over $1.10. Where will it be by late September?

Andrew

[renormalised]

Greg, it'll be bad enough that the Democrats have lost their backbone and are caving into business and financial interests, but if the Republicans get back in, the US is going to go downhill faster than a duck flying south for winter. They already have a debt of something around the $16 trillion dollar mark, which is larger than their economic output and it's growing that fast they can't keep up with it. No matter what some pundits might think will happen, they're in dire trouble. Unless they take some drastic actions very soon, expect the US to turn into a basket case. Unfortunately, in the process, they'll drag everyone else down with them.

[gregbradley]

Who knows what the future holds Carl and you may be right.

Their debt level is $14.25 trillion which is roughly 1 years worth of GDP.

During WW11 US debt level was 125% of GDP so they have survived high levels before.

I wouldn't underestimate their ability to rebound. I see Apple has recorded record profits and Microsoft is doing very well.

I am sure predictions of $1.50 would be on the basis of debt level negotiations failing and US defaults on debt. That's in neither parties interest as apart from the lack of confidence it would create it would also mean I imagine a credit rating downgrade with the consequent interest rate rise on their large debt.

By the way Japan's debt is over 200% of GDP ( from memory it is 225%) whereas USA's is 100%.

USA debt whilst extremely high is not that much higher than many European Countries and lower than some.They also pay a much lower interest rate than anyone else being the International Reserve Currency (ie international trade is generally conducted in US Dollars with some increasing exceptions). This keeps demand for their dollars artificially high no matter what they do unless they lose this status which would be very disastrous also.

Greg.

[pgc hunter]

I'm just about to drop the big bucks on a Zambuto..... this is music to the ears.

[Octane]

Sab,

When are you going to use it? You do realise, if you do it, Melbourne's clouds will never clear...

H

[pgc hunter]

I don't have to purchase anything to achieve that....

[ballaratdragons]

Interestingly, there is only 1 Republican Presidential candidate, Ron Paul, with the sense to admit: "America has to stop being the Police of the World. We have no place in saving and policing other countries when we can't even run our own properly. We need to stop fighting everyone else's wars for them."
Ron Paul.

"Our fighting men and women take an oath to protect America, defend our Constitution and defend our borders. They look at Ron Paul and see a leader who takes their oath seriously, and who will fight to ensure that we don't misrepresent that oath by sending them off to police the world, instead of defending our country."
Ron Paul's campaign chairman Jesse Benton.

Can you imagine the Gazillions they will save by NOT policing the world and stayed out of others wars! Approx $1 billion a day!!

Other Republicans do not follow Ron Pauls views. :rolleyes:

[renormalised]

They're spending $1.3 trillion to stay in Iraq and Afghanistan, plus their "War on Terror". I was reading about how much they spend on air conditioning alone, in Afghanistan....$20 billion a year!!!!!!. The military-industrial and financial complex is making money hand over fist and destroying their own country, but hardly anyone is lifting a finger to stop it. Shows you how brainwashed and kicked to the ground the people are over there. The US is slowly heading to become an ultra-right wing fascist/capitalist state run by the military and the megacorporations (although it pretty much is anyway) in a totally overt way and no one seems to care. What they need is a revolution.

[AstralTraveller]

+1

But where is the party to unite the downtrodden masses and lead them to a glorious victory? :shrug: That's the problem in the West - or at least a big part of it.

[renormalised]

It's got nothing to do with glorious victories or any of that jingoistic claptrap. And it's got nothing to do with parties....that's precisely what we don't want (political parties). What we need is for someone or a small group of like minded people to get the ball rolling. What we need is people who are willing to stand up and do what's right by everyone, not just a select few, or for themselves. That takes a lot of mature thinking and moral conscience. Plus the willingness to think for the whole, altruistically. That basically leaves out every politician, businessperson and a great many others. It also requires a very well developed, mature strength of character and vision. The really big problem for such a person/group is if their message is just going to fall of deaf ears. Given the way society is at present, that's probably going to be the case. The amount of opposition they'll face is going to be substantial and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if a few of them, or even a lot of them, end up face down in an alley somewhere with a bullet between their eyes. They will have to be smart enough to stay ahead of those that want to get rid of them.

The big problem with the West is that the society has been lulled into a state of torpidity and avarice by over 100 years of blind and mindless satiation. Driven by....guess who.........those that are in power and their sycophants. It's the old adage...keep a group/society fed to the eyeballs and rolling in the mud and they won't care what happens, just so long as they get what they want.

[AstralTraveller]

My phrase 'glorious victory' was typed with a fair bit of tongue in cheek. As for political parties we see now, obviously they are useless - their role is to maintain the status quo. But what would you call a group of like-minded people operating in the socio-political domain except a party? Whatever you call this group (and let's not get bogged down in semantics) history shows that it's message will fall mostly on deaf ears most of the time. However when forces larger than this 'party' cause a great number of people to look for alternatives that message has to be there and has to be clearly presented. It's almost certain that this will happen during a crisis - depression and/or war - when social collapse is looming large. People will want solutions *now* and if the 'right' message is absent then it is quite likely that groups with the 'wrong' message (and there is enough of them in every country) will gain influence and power. It's happened before.

[gregbradley]

This is starting to get into a political debate which is not really what this site is about.

Greg.

[Paul Haese]

Back to the topic.

Greg I think it can go higher. Sure the US was able to recover from high levels of debt after the war but keep in mind that they manfactured just about everything then. They traded their way out of debt. Now they import more than they export, we are almost the same too, and that will lead to more national debt in the end.

If our rates go up again soon, be prepared to see another rise to around 1.15. Reason is our rates provide a nice advantage to overseas currency investors and that makes our currency shorter in supply and that lifts the value of our dollar. The RBA has been making noises about raising rates again because of inflationary pressures.

Forget the US they are spending money like a drunken sailors.

[renormalised]

I think the dollar will go as high as US$1.50 within the next 4-6 months, like some have said. And if the US economy goes like I think it will, then it will go even higher. I'd say the next "universal currency" will either be the Euro, if they can extricate themselves from following what the US has fostered for itself lately, or it will be the Chinese currency.

The next few days will be critical. If they can't raise enough votes in Congress to sort out their debt problems by the 2nd of Aug, and the Republicans scupper it, then they're in really serious trouble. Not only that, it will have knock on effects in many other economies as well. Europe itself is in pretty dire trouble and I don't think the people there will put up with it in the end. It won't just be Greece that'll have riots in the streets.

[gregbradley]

You may well be right and certainly the Aussie tends to trend for a long time in one direction and that currently is up.

I thought the latest talk was of a rate fall. Who knows. Bananas force CPI up so there is talk of rate rise, consumer sentiment is bottomed out then talk of a rate drop.

A rate drop by Christmas is in my opinon most likely (RBA always overdoes it in one direction too long, always) and when that firms up the dollar will fall.

It is high primarily because we have super high interest rates compared to the rest of the west. There's are low because their economies are stil cactus.

If the US does not agree on this debt thing though - yes, $1.50 definitely rises above the horizon.

Either way we are in a great position to get good gear for once at a discount - amazing.

You know the Ausie dollar was US47 cents not that long ago (well - 12 years ago or so).

Anyway all this conjecture and we all make up our own mind about it when making puchase decisions.

In fact all this is academic if we don't have the money to buy now anyway!!:lol:

You know the US is stil the world's largest manufacturer by a large margin. You probably thought it was China right?
It is not even close. All those super expensive jets etc.

Greg.

[DavidU]

Apple has more cash than the US treasury.:lol:
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/07/29/the-u-s-treasury-has-less-cash-on-hand-than-apple-inc/?&hpt=hp_c2

[renormalised]

Might sound funny, but it isn't. Not only that, $10 billion/day is absolutely insane. It's out of control and getting worse.

[mithrandir]

The Chinese government has too much control over the Yuan for other countries to want it as a reserve currency.I though I heard on ABC this morning they got just enough Republicans on side to get the bill through the House. That gives the Senate Monday to pass it.

Andrew

[renormalised]

That'd be the only thing stopping it from becoming a reserve currency. But if the Chinese are smart, they'll free their currency up to allow it to possibly become a reserve currency. other than them or the Euro, we don't have too many choices.



They tried to get a possible plan through the house but the Senate will most likely scupper it because the Dem's run the senate. The plan, in any case, is just another Rep scam to keep things with their business mates in the status quo.

[ballaratdragons]

Well, after many of us have said there is a possibility of the A$ going as high as $1.50, the news is that it has now sunk back down to $1.36
Been falling since Friday.

The big U.S. dollar saving spend-up for us may be over. :shrug:
Have to watch it carefully over the next few days.

Here is the latest: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/australian-dollar

[Waxing_Gibbous]

I NEED the AU$ to fall (so do our exporters)!!!!
I have some share options coming due and they're paid in US$ :eyepop:
A 2cent drop would mean an extra 1.4K in my grubby little paws!

[Paul Haese]

I am sure you mean $1.036 Ken. It has only been as high as $1.11. It would be lovely if it was $1.36 for some of us at least.

[icytailmark]

well its down to almost below $1 now :( Just when i was gunna buy a Flea 3 camera. So annoyed.

[icytailmark]

Breaking news Commonwealth and Westpac have cut their interest rates

[casstony]

$1 is still a lot better than 60 cents. Whenever the politicians/bankers fail to prop up the world economy I think our currency will be a lot lower.

[TrevorW]

How much of this is contrived to strip $$$ off the value of our pensions

[xelasnave]

I think it was Mr Greenspan who said yesterday...

no one should worry about the US paying their debts because we can just print more money...
.:question::question::question:

IF such a view is the way the US plans their future I would not be worried about the long term value of our dollar:thumbsup:...mmmm unless of course we approach the same problem the same way:rolleyes:.

alex:):):)

[gregbradley]

Who got it right about the Aussie Dollar being probably near a high when it was around $1.10?? (See message #13).
:rofl:

Interest rates are likely to fall now so that will also work against a high Aussie dollar.

Better plan those Astro purchases wisely. To those who bought stuff at $1.10 - well done!

Aussie Dollar Swami Greg.

[RickS]

Time to start your own currency and stock picking newsletter, Greg? ;)

[icytailmark]

im still gunna buy my Flea 3 camera despite the dollar im still waiting for them to release it. If PGR dont release the flea 3 gige by sept i will be buying the Image source equiv.

[ballaratdragons]

Oops, yep, thanks Paul. :lol:
Glad to be corrected :thumbsup:

It is currently sitting on $1.021

[trek1701]

If this thread continues for much longer, perhaps it should be retitled "How low can it go?" ;)

[[1ponders]]

The beauty of being a mod Mark, we can always edit the thread title :P

[ballaratdragons]

It is goes on much more it could be re-titled 'How LONG can it go?' :lol:

[[1ponders]]

Until China calls in its debt :D