Coronal Mass Ejections and Geomagnetic Reversal

[thercman]

I have been following this one quite a bit lately. The Sun is going to be hitting it's 11yr cycle for CME's in 2013. This could be troubling enough seeing as they have been blamed for causing havoc in the past such as nocking out the power to Quebec Canada in 1989. Couple the increased strength of these ejections (increased prominences) and the potential weakening of the Earth's magnetic field (which is protecting us from CME's) and that could mean major power outages in the entire northern hemisphere. Many people could parish due to the break down in services. I would like to hear other peoples take on this scenario....

[ZeroID]

Mmmm, I thought they were predicting a low in the cycle for the next few years ?

[mikesim]

First the 'experts' were predicting a severe solar maximum around 2012, now they say there might not be a solar maximum at all due to the sun being very quiet and we may even head into another maunder minimum. Having said that, I believe there are now quite a few satellites that monitor the sun 24/7 and should a large CME occur and be heading for us, we would have quite a few hours warning before the Earth is actually impacted. Whether the power Companies and Governments are linked into this system and so could shut down key transformers in time to avoid major damage is the question. If they are and they do shut down, then no major problems. If they are not and transformers are burnt out then yes there are some serious issues as the lead time on large transformers I believe is in the multiple months and years.

[thercman]

Maybe you guys are right... I'll have to do some more reading. In the mean time I dug up a chart with some info on it that is interesting. It plots the Sun's historic activity over the years to the present.

Side topic: It is always interesting discussing topics like this to the average Joe. Most people I speak with will say something like that is a hoax or scam or scientists don't know what they are talking about. I try to understand the ideology there, but I am at a bit of a loss. Why would people not believe experts on a subject? Is it because they are desensitized from all the media hype out there and don't know what to believe? Maybe to much misinformation or lack of information on an uneducated public is to blame. :shrug:

[jenchris]

sky is falling syndrome - most people are so cynical and skeptical that they seldom believe anything until it really happens

[thercman]

So true! That is a scary thought isn't it. Essentially waiting until you can't do anything to prevent the outcome of a scenario until it is already under way. Over fishing comes to mind. Even fisherman are saying that they should slow down fishing in order to prevent populations from crashing and to allow fishing to future generations. Yet they are still at it.... Crazy. People do not want to be inconvenienced until its absolutely necessary. (on a soap box there, sorry)

[mikesim]

[Why would people not believe experts on a subject?]

I for one am always adjusting to how little humanity really knows about the Earth, its climatic systems, the solar system and the universe. So when 'experts' claim an extreme solar maximum is coming in the next cycle and then a year or so later they start taking the exact opposite view, it doesn't really surpise me, but reinforces my scepticism about our knowledge of large complex systems. The 'experts' used to think the Earth was flat and the universe revolved around the Earth. The 'experts' are more knowledgable than the average layman but still operate within the confines of humanities limited knowledge base. A degree of modesty on their part and a degree of scepticism on our part is certainly warranted IMHO.
Having said that, a Carrington type event today would probably do some pretty serious damage and I would expect that its not a matter of if, but when. Such an event could probably occur at any time, given our limited time frame of detailed observation of the sun in full stereo (5 months?). Whether we will be prepared in time is the issue. I suspect the effect on the military and our political leaders would be minimal (they are probably hardening key assets as we speak), but the general public will probably be left to hang out to dry as usual.