Do you think global warming is affecting our weather?

[rumples riot]

With this weird weather I just wondered how many of you had noticed in the last 20-40 years how much the weather has changed.

I think a poll is in order here.

[Robert_T]

so It's been wierd in SA too then? Sept-Nov are usually quite dry in Brisbane, but it's been cloud, rain, showers, more cloud, night time rain (very rare) and so on... don't know whether it's related tp Global Warming, El Nino or whatever, but it's most definitely odd... I'm seriously looking at buying a new scope soon so I'm expecting early cyclones;)


can't really complain about the weather though for before that it was drought and dams at crisis point, so I can still be grateful for a bit of rain (if only it could do it without clouds!)

cheers,

[Robert_T]

doh! :doh: ... forgot the poll!

[rumples riot]

Yeah Robert, this weather is way different than when I was a child. This time of year was fine and sunny. The last four weeks here in SA we have had so much rain or cloud or both but very little sunshine. Very weird. I think we need to do something about this soon, or we are going to have some serious problems in the near future. I hate to think what the world will be like in 10 years.

America has had a record season with hurricanes, we had a lot of cat 5 cylones last season. That is food for thought.

[Mick]

Maybe were just starting our 20 000 year cycle. How long have we kept weather records?

[ballaratdragons]

Paul, talk about wierd weather!! As soon as I read the title of this thread the rain started coming down so heavy I can't hear myself think. And I have sheepswool insulation in the ceiling which usually blocks the noise of rain on my tin roof. Man, it is loud!!!!

I agree, it was not like this years ago. What I have noticed over the last few years is it's as if the seasons have shifted along by about a month or more! It can't be a slight pole shift or the major telescopes of the world would have to realign their polar alignment.

[ballaratdragons]

Boy oh boy this rain is heavy and LOUD!!!!

[acropolite]

I don't think there is any doubt that global warming is affecting our weather, things are simply changing too rapidly to be anything else. In Tassie it's drier than ever and that's simply not the norm for our state. The extremety of weather events is increasing as well. Unfortunately, Joe Average isn't aware and/or doesn't care so change is likely to be a long time coming.

[Mick]

The Aboriginal Dreaming is part of a life cycle that is part of everything including the weather. 40 000 odd years they must must know something about the weather. This is a very interesting subject Paul.

The Lost Seasons (http://www.abc.net.au/science/features/indigenous/)

[hogly52]

Global warming is sure to have an impact on our weather, and as a consequence everything atmospheric. The rapid advances the world has achieved over the last century are going to have a cost on many things around us. Our hope for our children, and the future is that a cleaner and more efficient way is found for everything done on earth. The ways of our forefathers may have been archaic and crude, but their holistic environmental impact was minimal.

[slice of heaven]

Dunno about that. Spring has always been predictably unpredictable. Though it has been warmer (and wetter) on average this year ,with no frosts at all this spring.
Due to an interest in fishing, I follow the effect the weather has on the plants etc. and spring was spot on on time this year. The river fishing perked up right on cue, the sea fishing is going through a normal mid spring lull at the moment and their 2 things that are totally weather related. Just waiting for the last blast of spring to heat up the beach and get myself hooked up on some 20kg Mulloway before Xmas :fishing:

Plenty of sunshine here Paul, I've a nice tan to prove it. :)

[Robert_T]

actually we do have some excellent weather records going back thousands even millions of years, tree rings (dendrochronology), ice-cores from polar and antarctic ice contain "datable" ancient air and sea cores contain ancient foramnifera (not sure I spelled that right) which are minute sea creatures that record environmentally sensitive isotopes of various molecules such as oxygen... one thing that's becoming clearer is that environmental fluctutaion in the past has not been

unfortunately, like all records it's all in the interpretation...

cheers,

[Robert_T]

I should really read things before hitting the send button - the sentence below that ends abrubtly "one thing that's becoming clearer is that environmental fluctutaion in the past has not been" ... I meant to end, has not been as smooth as previously thought. What on a large timeframe appears as gentle undulations in temperature etc, on closer examination appear as rapid and sometime drammatic fluctutations in temp occuring over mere decades of time (with many different contributing factors from ocean currents to solar activity to airborne particles from volcanic activity etc).cheers,

[Nightshift]

I'm astonished that such a (seemingly) bright bunch of people here at iis actually consider that the global warming events even exist without little more than media hype to draw conclusions on, c'mon guys, brighten up, if you believe that global warming is an issue then you must believe all the fairy tales that multi national companies want us to believe. Check your facts, find some absolute evidence that is conclusive and aligns with global climate changes through the past 4 billion years and come back with a new poll, dont include some over educated college graduate with computer model, use known facts. Ask the Rothschild family or many others about who benefits from a global warming scam, fact is, the weather has not changed in our lifetimes that we cant account for as "normal" climatic variance. On the other hand I did just but a 12" dob and that has as much credence in influencing the weather as global warming scaremongers do so perhaps it's my fault. Next you will all be believeing that the ice will melt and we will all be flooded out, again, check your facts before you respond to this comment. If the weather is getting worse and worse exponentially then why has cyclone tracy not returned since 1974 or Brisbane floods of 1977 not returned? The worst droughts in Australian history were 1936 when we had the origional ash wednesday, my parents remember it and reckon we have had better weather since then, so maybe its global improving? Lets go back to looking beyond our atmosphere and let the mere mortals fall for this scam and clamber for high ground.

[Robert_T]

There's sure to be lot's of different opinions on this, and lot's of different motivations for those opinions and the different models they support - there is evidence, but it has to be sifted and interpreted and not all will agree on what it means.

Reading this thread though I don't think everyone is going along with the Global warming issue. I for one might have a feel that weather is different or offset from when I was a kid (and I was around for the '74 floods too) and so voted yes it's different - but this doesn't mean I buy into Global warming as an over-arching theory. What I've said below is that the weather evidence found in cores etc suggest that large scale climate fluctuation over very short time periods has been a common feature throughout geological history (for whatever reason) - changes we're experiencing now might therefore just be part of the "normal" (on geological timescales) weather fluctuation of our planet or these fluctuations might be superimposed on some manifestation of global warming... time will tell.

[slice of heaven]

I think a childs perception is a large factor in this.
I know the summers were hotter, the sky was bluer, the stars were brighter and the full moon was bigger when I was a kid.

[slice of heaven]

I think that sums it up nicely.

[fringe_dweller]

that is so true eh mate - very hard to trust one's childhood perceptions of weather - it was all so rosy :)

Paul - imo this strange untypical local weather started in Adelaide around the time of Mars great opposition in 2003 late July into August - I remember it only to well :( - and it hasnt stopped since. Have you forgot last years very wet winter? that was worse! we didnt even get an autumn went straight into winter and stayed there till summer started.
I remember a couple of years identical pair to these last few - I think it was '92/'93 - when Cuddly Creek caravan park was washed away when the torrens flooded (was one of those years) anyway I have a theory they came in pairs :P.
Funny thing is remember prior to these wet years - when it didnt rain much for maybe 3 years and we had extremely hot summers - everyone was saying that was a sign of global warming hehe ... the last bestest years for astronomy locally in the last 11-12 years was in the mid '90's imo I remember you could pick just about any night and the seeing/transparency was awesome - took it for granted tho.
Visited my family in Brisbane recently and they were saying how dry it had been up there for years - how it was more like Adelaide weather (that they remembered) and the extreme humid stormy weather that they/we experienced all thru '80's in Brizzy had all but disappeared up there in recent times.

[jdb]

I thought it was because of the ozone layer...or did 'they' fix that already?

:rofl:

[janoskiss]

No one cares about that old think any more, jdb. :P

[jdb]

Yeah, I know! I think (?) I was trying to be ironic...

Looks like icebergs are the next big thing. See: http://www.universetoday.com/am/publish/B-15A_iceberg_breaks_up.html?7112005

Not sure about the actual scale of the image, but I guess it was pretty big!
Hopefully not too big...:prey:

[slice of heaven]

Now it's global cooling :doh:

[ving]

without reading the hype of doing any scientific analysis or seeing any reports i can tell that what we seem to have happening in sydney is a "global evening out of temperature". I swear winters arent as cold and summers arent as hot as they once were. :)

[rumples riot]

Funny the responses so far. Very diverse opinion and that makes it interesting.

I don't entirely base my observations upon that of being a child in the 60's. Rose coloured glasses were popular, but not compulsory.

Its based on many different observations. The conveyor in the Atlantic has slowed significantly due it is supposed by the rapid melting of snow and ice in the artic, the Greenland Ice sheet (where glaciers are moving twice as fast as they were 5 years ago and this is four times as fast as it was 20 years ago) and 50% more fresh water being discharged from the three main rivers into the North Sea. When it stops, there are concerns that winters and summers in Europe will drop by 15 degrees C. That could be devastating.

Other evidence is minor but Golbum's Dam has been dry for many months and they have had level 6 water rationing for this year. The first time in history.

The Rose Ice shelf snapping off huge chunks that have never been witnessed before. We have been watching the antartic for over 100 years. All that fresh water has to dilute the salt water and therefore have some effect on the environment as a whole.

Other factors like it did not rain in South Australia until June 5 this year. First time ever this has happened. Also Islands in the Pacific that were there 20 years ago have been subsumed by the sea. They had been there ever since our kind first mapped them.

America has never had so many Hurricanes in one season that were of such high catagories.

Also things like floods in Brisbane have been alleviated by dams such as the Hinze dam construction projects. Hence, why this has not happened since. Although we have had flooding in SA today that has not happened since 92 and before that in 68.

It must be considered that if Politicians are now starting to use it as a political football and discuss and pushing the use of alternative energy sources, then there must be something in it. Not just milage.

And; finally the fact that the ice cores have been checked and that right now there is more CO2 in the atmosphere than there has been in the last 500,000 years. Everytime we use fossil fuels it must have an effect especially since there are now more people on this planet than there ever has been. So much of the Forest of the world no longer present, those very trees that love CO2. Just putting our heads in the sand and saying it just does not exist is fraught with all sorts of danger. Yes this may all be a variation in the long term climate that has occurred many times in the past. However, what if it is not. If the converyor stops and Europe is hit by the worst winter since recorded history, what will the nah sayer say then. Whoops!!!

[slice of heaven]

Correction Paul, Murray Bridge had around 4" dumped on it on the 26th of January 2005.

[ving]

er... isn't it flooding in SA atm? :confuse3:

[slice of heaven]

Only the Adelaide area I think. Only showers here last night and sunny all day today.

[avandonk]

The evidence for global warming is irrefutable.It is only the fine tuning of the computer models that is in contention.All the climatic models based on accurate observations suggest that weather events will become more severe.

Here are a few symtoms that cannot be ignored.
1 Pack ice retreating in Antartica
2 In the vast northern forests of Canada death of trees due to a beetle that could not survive there normally.These trees have no natural defences against this beetle.This infestation is moving north at an alarming rate.
3 Pack ice dissapearing in the arctic.
4 Glaciers worldwide retreating at never before seen rates.
5 Storms becoming more intense due to the inherent higher energy content of the atmosphere and ocean.
6 The vast permafrost tundra in Russia is melting.Where there were lakes in summer now dry or muddy beds.The water has been soaked up by the now thawed and newly permeable underlying ground.The scariest thing is the new thawed peat moss is now rotting and producing more CO2 than we are!

I could go on.
And I will.

The very scary thing if the ocean currents flip,England would have the climate of Moscow.This is because North Atlantic (Gulf Stream) warming current would stop flowing.to mention only one.

Not to mention all the disruptions to sea life which depends on upwelling currents full of nutrients.

Each one of us is to blame by simply being alive and living the way we do.So it is up to each one of us to do something about it.

There is an old North American Indian saying I think and its something like this

Act as if you will inherit the world from your children.

Bert

[janoskiss]

Personal experiences of weather and climate are not to be trusted when it comes to the global picture. Neither are computer models. They are good for up to about a decade then they break down. There are plenty of research papers showing that by applying the models to past data and comparing what it predicts with what actually happened.

Here's some real data. Relatively long term anomaly? Maybe. But that does not excuse us from doing our best to minimise our impact on the Planet.

Click here to view plot of global temperature 1861-2004 (http://www.meto.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/CR_data/Annual/HadCRUG.gif)

[slice of heaven]

Less than 1deg in 100yrs and less than half a deg in 60yrs. :confuse3:
Is that a really significant rise in the longterm? Need a chart from the last 10,000 yrs to make a decent comparison.
I do agree we shouldn't be raping our planet the way we do, but personally I cant tell the difference between the 'Local' current weather and that of years gone by.

[slice of heaven]

A chart of temps from borehole data...18000yrs.
Has man halted a global cooling trend?
http://www.ncpa.org/~ncpa/ba/ba337/ba337fig1.gif

Putting the temperature change into perspective.
http://www.ncpa.org/ba/ba337/ba337.html

I haven't voted as the only NO option says global warming is balderdash.

[jjjnettie]

So what is going to happen?

Are we going to have ever increasing temperatures?
Or
Are we going to set off another Ice Age?

There was an interesting doco on SBS the other week talking about just this.
And no, it wasn't The Day After Tomorrow.

[gaa_ian]

Bigger changes on a global scale are I think more indicitave of global warming
- 22 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in one season due to higher ocean Temps
- Clear evidence of the melting polar Icecaps, caught in a feedback loop of warming.
- the hole in the Ozone layer over Antartica due to CFC's
These things are all clearly quantified.
On the othe hand, changes in the seasons as we remember there are possibly part of another long term cycle.

[rumples riot]

JJJ, I saw that same doco, its about the conveyor I was talking about, and if you watch the special feature DVD there is some science related basis for the movie. Mind you, its sort of like using the womans day to reference your argument at Uni.

Yes your right Ian, but it is the little things that give an indication of what is happening on a larger scale. At least that is the way I see it. Large scale events will not take place for some time, however the smaller scale events are begining to show.

Anyway thanks for contributing everyone.

[rochler]

My 2c worth;

It could well be that the biggest silent contributor to the apparent global warming effect & ozone depletion is the degradation of the geomagnetic field that surrounds the earth. The earth's core (which acts a like a dynamo & generates this field) has slowed down quite significantly over the last few hundred years, and so the earth's field is weakening. This is usually a precursor to a geomagnetic reversal, where the polarity of the earth's field spontaneously reverses itself.

When I say 'spontaneously' I don't mean instantaneously. It could occur over decades, with years of instability before the poles realign & gradually the field stabilises & strengthens again. Apparently this has ocurred many times throughout the earth's history and is evidenced by geological studies. We are currently very much overdue for one.

Of course, as the earth's field weakens, more harmful rays from the sun can penetrate the atmosphere leading to higher incidence of cancers, changes in weather patterns, warming etc. Might also explain all those unusual whale beachings...

So I think we need to keep an open mind about it - although I very much believe that pollution, defoliation etc. significantly contribute to the problem I also believe that mother nature's engine room might also be a big factor....

Of course it might be that the earths core is slowing down for some other reason, but I'd rather not think about that. If it just kept slowing down i.e. not just a reversal, then we'll end up with no ionosphere & the solar winds can happily blow away our unprotected atmosphere, instead of deflecting around it as currently happens. We'd end up like Mars, so there wouldn't be much point in going there anymore hehe.... :prey:

[rumples riot]

Yeah Rochler that could also be a factor. I had forgotten about the geomagnetic reversal. I remember learning about this in Geology. The Pacific core samples suggest that reversals take place around every 10-100K years. Good thing about that is we will be on top of the world then. But while it is happening we will all suffer.