Aurora australis, how likely to see in NZ?

[vespine]

I'm going to NZ next week for 10 days, south island, mostly around queenstown and wanaka, will have a car so hope to get out to some dark remote skies. How common and likely are aurora around there? I have no idea, is it like a nightly thing or a few times a year thing? i've found lots of websites that say when the best time to go is, which unfortunately isn't now, but overall, I can't see any info about how likely you are to see some aurora activity if you have say 3 days to look. Also when is the best time of the night to look for it? after sunset or before dawn or middle of the night?

I found this website, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/pmapS.html this seems to suggest pretty low activity, does this mean it's barely noticable? or not naked eye at all? or should be noticable from a dark enough site?
Thanks.

[cookie8]

I went to South Island last year in April. Stayed 2 nights at Te Anau didn't see any aurora. I think you have to be within the arctic circle to see them.
The sun is very quiet thses days as well. Hardly any sunspots.

[JethroB76]

Probably not a good time for aurora

There is some good info in this thread though:
http://www.iceinspace.com.au/forum/showthread.php?t=25932&highlight=aurora

[glenc]

Try the map of the south pole on this web site: http://www.gedds.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/

[Stuart78]

Don't know about NZ but back in 2004 i manage to be in the right place at the right time which was wilsons prom southern Vic and witnessed Aurora Australis it was in the the orange spectrem like huge fingers of orange light creeping up the horizon at 12:30am was awesome to say the least given that it was even visible from Victoria, was very lucky to see it..

[Enchilada]

In the southern hemisphere, the magnetic pole is placed just off the coast of Antarctica facing towards Australia. From latitudes south of about -45o- being from Tasmania to southern New Zealand will usually see aurorae more frequent than any other populated areas in the south. As the South Island is closer to the magnetic pole, therefore places like Queenstown and Invercargill will see many more aurorae. From Australia, the aurorae is see mainly in its southern parts - namely Tasmania, Southern Victoria and sometime of the South Australia. Aurorae, though less frequently, it has been viewed from latitudes like Sydney, much of New South Wales, and even Brisbane in Queensland. Far more aurorae, however, are visible from the Antarctic continent.

For southern places, from New Zealand’s Invercargill, the number averages five to ten ech month. The probability of aurorae in eastern Australia is smaller roughly being;

- Hobart was twice per month
- Melbourne once per month
- Sydney once every five years
- Brisbane once every ten to fifteen years
- Cairns once or twice per century

Generally the stronger the outburst of geomagnetic activity, the further from the geomagnetic poles an aurorae can be seen. These powerful events are far rarer, so the frequency of the aurora will decrease rapidly. Overall this frequency does changes significantly. It depends mainly on the proximity we are to solar maximum and when the sunspots are near maximum numbers - and this occurs near the earth’s magnetic poles around latitudes of about 60o; namely, Canada and Greenland in the north, Tasmania and New Zealand in the South. The actual magnetic poles show fewer aurorae than occurs about 1 500 kilometres away within the auroral ovals.

In theory, an aurora could be seen anywhere on Earth. It is possible to see aurorae nearer the equator - perhaps possibly as frequently as once or twice each century! Of course, much of this activity is also closely locked-in with the 11.3 year solar sunspot cycle. This explains why more aurorae and more probable nearer, or just after, solar maximum that at minimum. Furthermore, that most aurorae in high geomagnetic latitude will only be seen during solar maximum.

[fragchamp]

Seen it a few times in my life. Brilliant. Once it stuck around for a week or so. Bright pink fingers in the south covering maybe 30 degrees of sky, and it slowly changes.

[Gdaymate]

Really good info, thanks. I was thinking of going to Yellowknife, Canada to see the Northern Aurora, but it would be really expensive (and cold). What are the best chances of seeing the Southern Auroroa in/around Queenstown, which would be much cheaper, and where I could stay for longer? Is there a best time of year for this, or is it purely dependant on the sunspot activity? Can anyone predict when the sunspot activity would be optimal over the next 12 months?