Buyers' Strike

[Ian Robinson]

Are you holding off buying astro and photo stuff right now in the hope the exchange will improve soon ?

I am - have the money set aside , and have set a target price range I am prepared to pay for my next major purchase - a EF 70-200 f/2.8 L IS USM lens and am reluctant to spend more than the range I settled on.

I might buy some minor items soon , ie a filter or two , making a permanent pier for the Atlux and concrete slab or a timber deck to go around it (as a base for an observing hut) , and an OAG (sleeping on that one, it's an I want it and not an I need it item)

[Wavytone]

I bought some things from US and Japan in September when the $A was near its peak. The exchange rate should climb somewhat from where it is now.

[Starkler]

I did say in here a few times over the last year that "things arent going to get any better than this, so you may as well buy now."

The last couple of years have spoiled us.

As for the south pacific peso, word is its going to get worse before it gets better.

[Jen]

Well whenever i see something i would like to add to my astro collection i get this little whisper in my head that says mum i need new shoes or new summer clothes cause the old ones dont fit no more :doh:
so off to the shoe shop I go :rolleyes:

[Whizgig]

Yes annoying inst it :) they always need something don't they. lol :)

[mick pinner]

l was looking at a G11 at $5100 but now they are $6100, will l buy one? hell no. l'm still spending aussie dollars so if a dealer wants my money they will have to compromise on price as l have to. give the dollar down turn time to bite the retailers with reduced sales they will have to come to the party or fold.

[monoxide]

same here Mick...

it was a bit of a suprise to see the G11 jump that much, id assume they would have had a couple in stock and they wouldnt exactly be running out the door so what gives?
although noone actually keeps stock any more do they.. you always just use them as a middleman and wait weeks for everything.

i guess ill be re-greasing my HEQ5 and making the most of it till the $ recovers.
most retailers would still rather sell less for more though :screwy:

[bloodhound31]

I was heavily considering replacing my broken C11 with the Planewave CDK 12.5 for $15000. Two days later it went to nearly $19000 and still is.

Game over.:mad2:

[TrevorW]

A lot of local dealers will realise and be affected by the drop in the $ as their bread and butter customer stop buying you might see some drastic sales happening

[Whizgig]

So why has our dollar gone down at all when its the US dollar that is in trouble not ours so ours should go up not down our economy is fine and getting stronger so Why???

[matt]

Well...for starters our economy is very heavily resources based.

When the rest of the world can't afford to buy our resources...our dollar tumbles.

[Ford Prefect]

Because demand for coal and steel (our main exports) has weakened. People trade currencies in order to buy commodities in that currency - eg you buy USD in order to buy goods from the US. Hence, simple demand/supply dictates that if demand for Australian goods goes down, so does demand for our currency, and hence the value of the dollar drops.

Just quietly, I doubt if we'll see the Aussie buying 0.95USD again for a while...

And as for the sellers - maybe some are profiting by claiming the dollar has gone down when they're selling stock they bought months ago with a better dollar. However, if they bought that stock recently, then massive price hikes aren't actually unreasonable given that the currency has dropped ~30% in value...

That's my 2c... er.. 1c :lol:

[Ric]

That's a hefty jump Baz even with our dollar dropping.

I won't be buying much for a long while with current prices the way they are but I've been spending on our house and farm so technically I'm broke.:P I have enough astronomy gear to keep me happy and the imaging gear I have is perfect for my SN search program so I'll be happy for a long while.

Cheers:)

[Whizgig]

but then so is US which means their dollar should now be less than ours not more, As we are not in as much debt as they are. I mean the US government is in trillions of dollars of debt we are not so really it doesn't make any sense at all and we shouldn't have fallen as much as it has. I mean the price of things has gone through the roof and its not right it should have only gone up by no more than 25% at the most not 30-50% like it has.

[matt]

You're right. It doesn't make sense...but take a look around. You can find a lot that doesn't make sense right now:screwy:

Our fundamentals remain strong...but we're being dragged down by what's happening elsewhere. And there's a lot of panic behaviour going on.

[Whizgig]

yep not much makes much sense these days, The world is a mad place to be at the moment. :)

[Ian Robinson]

Foreign exchange speculators (ahem : hedgefunds) buying US dollars in a vain hope saving their own bacon. Probably the very same twits who caused the financial market crisis.

[Ian Robinson]

A lot of smaller vendors who are probably working on very small margins (not in position to bring containers full of telescopes and bulk accessory orders in without a customer order in hand) will likely call it a day and pack it in , pretty hard to remain profitable if you have long lead times on orders from overseas and the exchange rate is going downhill so fast.

The only ones who will benefit will be big dealers who can sit pat or absorb (if they choose to) some of the increased wholesale costs. This will not be good for amateur astronomy here in Oz.

[centroid]

I'm 'holding off' until the pound is stronger against the $ US.

Not so long ago we were at just over $2 US to the pound, now its just 1.6.

The Aussie $ is good for us, as we are getting around $2.5 Au to the pound, which as I'm over here in WA for few week, is good. :)

Dave

[TrevorW]

I think it was the Keating Govt that revalued the AUD$ prior to that it held parity with the US$.

Unfortunately the world needs to stop using the biggest economy/ biggest debt ridden country in the world as a benchmark.

My understanding of economics is that an a decline in the value of AUD$ has a two fold affect on our economy

1. Foreign investors are more likely to invest more in Australia because it's cheaper to do so and they can buy more of our raw products at lower prices, which has a flow on effect of increasing production which means stablising employment.

2. prices go up as the value of the Aust $ declines people locally stop buying and start saving thereby reducing inflation and reduce national debt as we import less.

Although the slump in the American market sees those same investors reducing investment and this has a flow on affect of slowing the American market which also sees a reduction in imports that cause countries like China to slow purchasing raw material as production slows etc etc etc.

Cheers

[AlexN]

Me... Hold off on buying astro toys... NAAAAH...

I'll be a bit more picky and choosie over what I buy and where from.. but in general, these things happen... How do you say "oh im not buying astro gear because the aussie dollar has fallen" When do you decide that the AUD has regained enough to justify starting to spend again? when it gets back to 90+c?? You might be in for a LOOONNNNNNGG wait.. and personally... I cant go 20 minutes with out buying at least something small to add to my ever growing box of astro-goodies... EQDIR + cables arrived today, yes I paid more for these items than most people have due to the dollar, but I wanted it, and I just didnt care... same with my K3CCDtools 3 registration.. a few people got it for $56~$65 when the dollar was good, I paid closer to $85.. But, I wanted it, and now I have it.. simple as that...

[Alchemy]

im fortunate enough to have accumulated pretty much all i need at the moment,

will purchase the XY Orion guider attatchment when one of the vendors calls me to say they have one in stock, i called them both some time ago..... first to call gets the sale,

thats about it for me, the bigger mount and 16 inch RCOS will just have to wait a bit :whistle:

[AlexN]

Clive... dont be a wuss.. the 20" RCOS isn't much more $$ than the 16, and if you get a paramount, it will hold the 20" + everything you need :P

[netwolf]

Well it looks like the Aussie dollar is on a upward trend, climbing back. In the last 24hours last nigh to now, the dollar has climbed from 60 to 68cents. And hopefully more interest rate cuts next week might see it go up further. Lets hope the trend continues.

We need more like the Argo Navis, and Deep Sky optics, SDM etc.

And the clever way maybe to make some good designs and get them manufactured in China. Have a stron QC and then on sell it. TMB designed scopes are being made by WO and Lomo etc. Why are there no Aussies in this field?

Sureley we could find a way to create a Goto system based on the ArgoNavis as a brain and put it on a locally made or locally assembled mount. Why could we not produce the quality the likes of Paramount.

Given we have the darkest skies on the planet, could we not create dark sky projects that use all Australia manufactured Telescopes and accessories?

Could someone not make a SkyPOD like observatory locally. I mean it costs 1500-2000dollars US and by the time we get it hear its climbed in price to 5000grand. IF the Americans can manufacture and sell it at profit for 2000grand cant we do the same. And would it not cost less for the Americans or Europeans to buy from us?




Surely we must have such talent.

While we may well put or overseas purchases on hold should we not consider what is in our backyard. What can we do and Why not give it a go.


Regards
Fahim

[Starkler]

Sorry Fahim it works the other way around. Interests rates going down pushes our dollar down as foreign investors withdraw from our currency to chase better gains elsewhere.

[Ian Robinson]

Well that's how it used to work , but our exchange rate went the other way lately .... go figure .... there is no logic in the international financial system.

[netwolf]

I knew there was a reason i hated economics. Thanks for the correction.

[Starkler]

Think back to recent history. What happened just as the RBA was announcing a 1% rate drop?

[matt]

Eek!!!!

Most likely a Doomsday scenario...but makes for fairly uneasy reading:

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/business/dollar-to-fall-below-us040c-analyst/2008/10/31/1224956285611.html

:scared:

[Kevnool]

Silly prices Thank goodness ive got it all now dont need more.......cheers Kev.

[mick pinner]

l wonder if the manufacturers and retailers adjust their profit margins to keep products competitive or just go with the full price rise and see what happens.

[Ian Robinson]

Every other nation was moving interest rates the same direct at the same time .... so ????

[Ian Robinson]

I can't see the Reserve Bank and Canberra allowing it to fall that low , they might Peg it if that looks like a serious outcome.

Remember Howard and his ratbags are now gone.

[Sharnbrook]

From what I understand, one reason that the US$ is high is that all the loans being called in by the Banks were originally written in US$, and that's what they are having to be repaid in, consequently, the US$ is at a premium. Sounds like a reasonable explanation.

By the way, has anyone looked at Meade's stock price recently? A couple of days ago it was at 15cents, and in 2000 it was over $35!! Can they hang in? That puts their market capitalisation at less than $5million, about the same value as a block of say 12 units in an average suburb. If you are interested here (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=mead) are the details. Makes you wonder what the scopes are REALLY worth, doesn't it?

[Shawn]

Hoover up some the bargains that those that struggling are forced to offer. Help some other Astronomer out of his or her bind, if you can afford to...

[Ian Robinson]

I expect they are very heavily geared and will likely go offshore to China and will probably eventually become a chinese company.

I have vague recallection that not so long ago Meade was under Chapter 11 protection. Correct me someone if I am wrong, I may be confusing them with Celestron.

[GrahamL]

If i recall when A long term buyer of there stock got control they moved there assembly to mexico ? ... And sliced off the directors/ major shareholders very generous salery packages they were paying themselves.

Broke .. ?.. probably not ..yet!.... Somone will buy it :)

[gary]

The reasons are varied and a little complex. However, bear with me and I
will attempt to explain.

Firstly it is important to appreciate that the Australian Dollar is floated,
which means it can be freely be bought and sold in exchange for other currencies.

One respondent incorrectly stated that -

In late 1983, the Hawke Government, of which Keating was the treasurer,
didn't "re-value" the dollar, they "floated" the dollar, a very important
distinction. From late 1974 up until then, the Australian Dollar was not
pegged to the US Dollar. Instead, it was pegged to what was known as
the "Trade Weighted Index", effectively a mixed bag of currencies
weighted in proportion to how much a country trades in goods and services.

As some respondents correctly pointed out, one of the reasons for the decline
in the Aussie Dollar in recent months is because it is generally linked by
currency traders to commodity prices - things like iron, coal, wheat, sugar,
etc. Australia is fortunate enough to be commodity rich. However,
in that regard it is viewed by currency dealers as being one big open cut mine.
When demand for resources drops, so does the value of the Australian
Dollar.

However, one of the biggest reasons for the decline of the Aussie Dollar, if
not the biggest, is what are called "carry trades".

Despite what they loved to boast about, the fact was that interest rates in
Australia during the Howard/Costello years were actually among the highest in
the developed world.

Enter the humble Japanese housewife. What could she possibly have to
do with the dramatic decline of the Australian Dollar?

The Japanese have some of the deepest pockets in the world, with savings
some analysts have estimated to be around US$15,000 billion.

After a period of stunning growth, from around late 1989 onwards,
the Japanese stock market and real estate asset bubble started to deflate.
Those were the days when one square meter of land in the Ginza
cost around US$1.5 million. As a deflationary spiral set in and the price
of real estate collapsed, the Japanese Central Bank set interest rates at
close to zero percent.

By then, many of Japan's technological exports, for which it was famous
and had grown prosperous on, started to decline. With the Nikkei stock market
index dropping from 1989 onwards, the Japanese started to look for
other places in the world to invest their money in which to get a higher rate of
return.

As many economic commentators have noted, in a Japanese household,
it is common for the housewife to control the purse strings and to make
investment strategies.

With official interest rates in Japan so low and during the Howard/Costello
era, official interest rates in Australia very high, Japanese housewives,
international hedge funds and other investors started trading in a risky
but potentially high yield venture called a "carry trade". Essentially you
go to a bank in Japan, take out your own savings and then borrow a whole
lot of extra Yen at say 0.5% interest. You then convert them into Australian
Dollars and invest them in, say, Australian bonds or even just a bank account
earning a much, much higher interest rate of return. For example, over the
past seven years they could earn something like 211% on their investments
in buying Australian Dollars. But the key thing is that in order to make these
investments, many had leveraged themselves by large amounts in taking
out the loans. The loans were easy to get because credit was freely available.

Then it all hits the fan. The US sub-prime crises sees credit start to become
tighter. Commodity prices drop and so does the Australian Dollar. Official
interest rates are cut here in order to stimulate the economy.

It then became time for all those carry trades to unravel their positions, selling
Australian Dollars as fast as they can and converting them back to Yen.
They know if they hold onto them, then what they will earn in interest here
minus exchange rate fees, etc. will be less than what they have to repay their
bank's back home in Japan for the loans.

So down goes the Aussie Dollar and up goes the Yen, to record highs.

How much money are we talking about? Funnily enough, nobody knows
for sure, but estimates of about US$500 billion in carry trades are not
uncommon. That is an enormous amount of money compared to the size
of the economies of most of the countries in the wold.

There are other reasons for the decline of the Aussie. Always keep in mind
that it is freely traded after all. However, despite what one might think,
"that there is no logic or reason for it to decline", then there very much is.
Is there any "fairness" in its decline compared to, say, the US Dollar?
Unfortunately, when markets are concerned, fairness does not enter into it. :)

Hope the above commentary may be of interest to some.

We wish you all the best for Christmas and the New Year! :hi:

[Ian Robinson]

I'm still on strike as far as buying anything major is concerned , particularly as far as astronomy and camera stuff is concerned .

I'll concentrate on the building a roll-off-roof observing shed , a couple of piers (probably in concrete) , and finishing off my 10" newt OTA rebuild , and maybe picking up a few cheap astro and photo b-n-p's here and at ebay and other places, and that will have to do me for now.

Don't be surprised if places who sell camera stuff and telescopes and accessories have REAL sales before Xmas and in January as you can bet they are hurting as far as sales volumes are concerned , as in not selling much if anything (especially the big ticket items like L lenses, high end scopes and gems, and high end cameras etc).

PS : was checking B&H last night (the rebates are back on Canon L lenses ..... why do we never see these rebates here in Australia BTW, or do the Canon dealers simply pocket it here ??) and noticed an Atlux with dovetail and Starbook and tripod selling there for 5817 USD ==> 9090 aussie lira. Glad I bought mine when I did !!!

[Starkler]

Heads up. US dollar is crashing against other currencies
AUD = approx 77c US at this time.

[matt]

It probably won't matter a jot to prices here. We'll be told current stock was purchased when the exchange rate wasn't so good.:rolleyes:

Strange how that was also what we heard when the Oz dollar went on a very strong run for a very long time...

Gee...they must time their purchasing runs very poorly:whistle::lol:

[Starkler]

Well its a fair thing to say as long as it works both ways.
A month or so out from now there wont be any excuses. Punish those that want to profiteer by buying OS.

[stephenb]

I bought the LX200 10" for $5200 this time last year from BinTel. It's now $7400????

I notice however, that the LX90 8" went from about $3599 to $4000 at the start of this year, now i has dropped to $3699.

Nothing against BinTel here, just using them as an example.

[mswhin63]

I am wiling to spend now to get a scope that works, although I would wait before buying accessories to improve my viewing XP.

[Tandum]

Wake me up when it hits 90Cents.

http://www.chartflow.com/fx/chartout.asp?ccy1=AUD&days=365&ccy2=USD&B1=Chart+Now

[Jen]

:lol::lol::lol::lol:
looks like your going to have a long long sleep ;)
:P

[Starkler]

If that happens anytime soon it means markets everywhere will crash and you'll have more to worry about than your next astronomy purchase.

[Tilt]

You're missing one more option from your poll.

No - I'm AlexN

:rofl:

But seriously, I haven't spent all that big on astro gear... Yet. If I was in the market right now for a decent CCD or such I'd buy it tomorrow, the current AUD $ wouldnt put me off. But I don't want to rush these things, I've still got plenty to learn with the gear I have at the moment.

Michael

[TrevorW]

Still I've only found 1 supplier advertising and selling at comparitive prices to US prices most are marking prices several hundred dollars more than they should be.

I mean $3500 for an Orion 120 ED

[toryglen-boy]

i know what you mean Trev, and there is never a good time buy IMHO. I recently contacted a supplier looking for an ST80, i was quoted $650 when i asked why i was told "because no where else has them in stock, so if you want one this is the price". needless to say, i was kinda disgusted, and i picked one up from here, from a kind forum member for $100.

I find it annoying when retailers will use quite literally ANY excuse to bump prices up, and literally ANY excuse to not bring them back down when the financial emergency subsides.

I find Andrews to be the cheapest in Oz by far, they recently advertised the new Skywatcher Flextube Auto 12" at about $3000, by the next day they had cut $500 off the price, and it makes you think, how much money are retailers paying? I mean, i have a rough idea of cost price, and i know how much retailers put on as thier mark up, thats ok though, i accept that if i want post sales help, or advice, or that the retailer has overheads himself, then i dont mind paying. But people here seem to be paying through the nose, i mean how can you justify some of the differences retailers charge?

In many ways i have recently boycotted retailers although not intentionally. If there is something i want, the first place i will always look is at the IIS classifieds, then i will look online. i will only really now buy something from a retailer, if i want a gaurantee, or its new gear that hasnt filtered down to owners upgrading yet.

There are some retailers i wont even use for various reasons, one of them has a whole website of stuff with not a single price on anything just "between $1500 - $3000" and if there isnt a price there for me to compare with, then i can be bothered. Another retailers is just far too expensive for anything, even with a discount.

Its a buyers market, and if retailers dont realise this soon, then some of them will go out of business.

;)