Mars could be hit

[matt]

Don't know if this has already been posted here at IIS???

But found this while trawling the science 'Wires' at work today:

Mars could be in for an asteroid hit.

US scientists says a newly discovered hunk of space rock has a one in 75 chance of slamming into the Red Planet on January 30.

NASA astronomer .. STEVE CHESLEY says these odds are extremely unusual.

CHESLEY says they know the asteroid will most likely miss mars but there is a possibility of impact.

The asteroid .. known as 2007 WD5 .. was discovered in late November and is similar in size to the Tunguska object that hit remote central Siberia in 1908 .. unleashing energy equivalent to a 15-megaton nuclear bomb that wiped out 60 million trees.

[CoombellKid]

Wow! way cool!!!! I hope it all works out :prey2: cause I'll definetely travel to
clear skies to what that!!!!:thumbsup:....hmmmmm watch that!!!, even.... :whistle:

btw, is that January 30th 2008?

regards,CS

[matt]

I guess so, Rob. It doesn't specify a year...so I'm asuming with Mars being in closer proximity it's based around that being topical???:shrug:

[erick]

1 chance in 75? I think I'll keep my money in my pocket. :)

[CoombellKid]

That's right! Mars being not too too far away we might be able to observe
an inpact : ))))))))

regards,CS

[CoombellKid]

A chance in 75 is enough to prick my ears up ;)

regards,CS

[citivolus]

Link:

http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci-mars21dec21,0,6729483.story?coll=la-home-center

[matt]

Thanks for providing the link:)

[erick]

Quick - down to Ladbrokes - what odds it'll hit one of the rovers?


"The asteroid's course has now taken it behind Earth's moon, he said, so it will be almost two weeks before observers get another chance to plot its course more accurately."

This confused me, but it must be suggesting that asteroid is tracking same path and speed as the Moon, from our earthbound perspective. I find it hard to believe given how fast the Moon moves relative to the stars??

[Matty P]

We're not talking 1 in-a-million chance, we're talking 1 in 75 chance. I think there is a pretty good chance of the Asteroid hitting Mars. Don't you? :rolleyes: :sadeyes:

Matt

[erick]

OK, there are 74 out of 75 chances that it won't hit Mars. It'll miss. :confuse3:

[Matty P]

Yes, the odds are stacked against the asteroid hitting Mars. But saying that, it would make a wonderful event to observe.

[matt]

Indeed, Matt.

I'd agree that 1 in 75 aren't particularly flash odds...but you never know:)

It doesn't hurt to dream or wonder

[vash]

wounder how the rovers would fair if it did hit?

[erick]

Reportedly 50m across. If any bits of the rover were found, they would be very flat?

[erick]

I agree absolutely - a "scientific bonanza" they say.

[SkySearcher]

Comet Shoemaker - Levy 9 hitting Jupiter was a thrill I'll never forget!!
It would be fantastic to see. But won't be taking the the chance on a new refractor untill the odds look a little closer.

[Outbackmanyep]

Oh goody!
This will be very interesting!!!!!

[Dennis]

Could this object be the return of the lost Mars Climate Observer from the 1999 mission, where one team performed their calculations in Imperial Units, the other in SI units?

Cheers

Dennis

[Ric]

Amazing stuff and a very interesting link. If it does happen our resident planetary imagers will no doubt have some amazing images to show.

Cheers

[OneOfOne]

I wonder how many trees will this one wipe out?:lol:

Murphies law says it hits one of the rovers...the one that is working the best!

[astro_nutt]

I hope it DOES hit Mars..one less for us to worry about..a bit too close in my book!!

[xelasnave]

If it hits could the resulting dust cloud cause a green house effect, melt the ice and make it nice for life? what are the odds on that?

A 1 in 75 is like no chance at all as Eric rightly put it the odds should be looked at from the other end to realise how slim those odds are... still I would like those odds if I purchased a lotto ticket.
alex

[CoombellKid]

Sorry I disagree. A 1 in 75 is not like no chance at all, it is still a 1 in 75
chance period, however slim those odds are. No chance at all is simply that,
No Chance At All and nowhere near a 1 in 75 chance;)

What I initially meant was, a 1 in 75 chance of hitting Mars is pretty good
odds and a slim chance of an impact, which would be fantastic to see.
Either way an impact or no impact I'll be keeping my ears open for any
news.

regards,CS

[CoombellKid]

It is quite possible, depending on it's orientation from our perspective and
it's orbit. I suppose the odds of it happening is like the odds of it hitting Mars;)

regards,CS

[xelasnave]

No need to say sorry if you do not agree Rob... my feeling wont be hurt:lol::lol::lol:
alex:):):)

[CoombellKid]

Ok I'm not sorry then :D, but it ain't rocket science to figure out what I
said, just simple maths ;)

regards,CS

[SkySearcher]

Thats 1.33% which is about the same as flipping 6 heads in a row.
I think those odds are well worth a good look. Also kinda scary when you think about it


Still better odds than me getting an Argo Navis for Chtistmas:rolleyes:

[CoombellKid]

I uploaded an image for SN with the latest ephemeris for 2007 WD5. There
is a text file with all the required info if you want to add it to SN.

Currently 2007 WD5 is about 6 degree east and slightly south of the moon.
And currently looking at a flyby at around 200,000kms from Mars, with a
2.4% chance of hitting Mars this percentage is increasing.

regards,CS

[rat156]

I still don't get the "can't refine the orbit because it's behind the moon" statement. Clearly it's not behind the moon, and I fail to see how it can stay behind the moon anyway. It's orbiting the sun, the moon is orbiting the Earth, the Moon could occult the asteroid, but only fleetingly. The SN screen shot show this, if that's the position of the Moon, Mars and the asteroid, then tomorrow the moon won't be in shot.

Please explain!

Cheers
Stuart

[CoombellKid]

Stuart,

The asteroid being at mag 24.3 makes it a fairly faint object, with the moon
heading to Fullmoon on the 24th that maybe causing a few problem for
ground based instruments trying to track it, not sure where the info came
from on that one. Yes as you can see it isn't sitting behind the moon.

Near Earth Orbiting Objects came in many varried orbit's. Most are not
discovered until they have gone past us, which is a bit of a worry. But
if the circumstances were right, I see no reason why one couldn't be hidden
for a time behind the moon, but for 2 weeks I'm not too sure about that.

just my thoughts, but I could be wrong.

regards,CS

[Alchemy]

i can only say bring it on, it would put astronomy back in the spotlight again in the eyes of governments etc

[CoombellKid]

I made a little movie of 2007 WD5 orbit using the latest ephemeris. Starting
from the 01/09/07 to 20/02/08. It's 1.3mg and you'll need Quicktime to
view it. It was pretty much chasing our @$$ there for a month or so.

http://members.westnet.com.au/rocker/2007WD5.mov

regards,CS

[rat156]

Hi CS,

Yes, perhaps it's just the translation from astronomer speak to media speak. Hidden in the glare of the moon could translate to hidden by the moon by the time it reaches a science reporters fingertips. Still, Hubble doesn't have that limitation, so why not use it.

What's the bet that this thing will take out at least one orbiting spacecraft, and with it all the images from Mars, or it'll miss completely.

Cheers
Stuart

[davidpretorius]

Paul Haese still talks about the Jupiter Impact as one of the best things he has seen..........this would be great if it repeated here

[astroron]

If it hits Mars it might get the polaticians thinking:;)Hey thats a bit to close to home, lets put some more money into finding these things and to put some thought what to do about ny ones possibly heading our way:P
I hope it happens as it will make possibly for some good pics from the the Rovers and Hubble :prey::prey:

[CoombellKid]

Not too sure about that, orbiting a few hundred kms above the Earth wont
get you out of the glare of the moon.

regards,CS

[OneOfOne]

I guess if someone throws a ball toward you, your brain can calculate its path and you can move to catch it. If someone throws something directly AT your face, there is not the same amount of relative motion, it just gets bigger and it is too late by the time you duck:eyepop:

[rat156]

But it'll get you out of the atmosphere, which causes most of the glare related imaging problems.

Cheers
Stuart

[citivolus]

Numbers on MPML from this morning reduced the chance of impact to 0.3%, based on three precovery observations from 8th November 2007.

Eric

[Neil]

Does anybody know what the odds were for comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 striking Jupiter?

[citivolus]

And on that note, did all the fragments impact or are they now in drastically different orbits?

[astroron]

I dont know the odds , but there was nothing left to go into orbit.
I think that there was twenty two bits seen in hubble pictures but I think only 17-18 actual marks on Jupiter, the rest evaperated befor they got there or where to small to be seen making any impact.
Ron

[bird]

As I recall the impact was known well before the event, not long after it broke up after the first close approach. I remember seeing the impact with my old 10" scope, sadly this was 9 years before I bought my first camera :-(

cheers, Bird

[citivolus]

Latest probability from MPML this morning is 3.949%, based on 3 precovery observations.

Eric

[CoombellKid]

here's some more info from JPL

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news153.html

regards,CS

[Alchemy]

a bit of shameless plagerism:D ..... quote.....

Don Yeomans, Paul Chodas and Steve Chesley
NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office
December 28, 2007


The impact probability for a collision of asteroid 2007 WD5 with Mars on January 30 has increased from 1.3% to 3.9%. Pre-discovery observations of asteroid 2007 WD5, taken on November 8, 2007 have allowed its orbit to be refined and the uncertainties for the late January Mars encounter have been improved. The impact probability resulting from the recent orbit refinement has increased to a surprising 3.9% (about 1 in 25 odds). The uncertainty region during the Mars encounter now extends over 400,000 km along a very narrow ellipsoid that is only 600 km wide. Since the uncertainty region intersects Mars itself, a Mars impact is still possible. However, the most likely scenario is that additional observations of the asteroid will allow the uncertainty region to shrink so that a Mars impact is ruled out. In the unlikely event of an impact, the time would be 2008 January 30 at 10:56 UT (2:56 a.m. PST) with an uncertainty of a few minutes. ........

im still hoping it gets hit:)

[CoombellKid]

That's why I posted a link to it above ;)

regards,CS

[Alchemy]

hence shameless,:lol:

just googled asteroid 2007 WD5 37000 links :P couldnt find any new updates in the first couple of pages... any new news of this newsworthy news.?

[CoombellKid]

Nope! nothing that I have heard anyways, I think the possibility of a hit is
dwindling by the day. We'd probably miss it if it did hit due to the never
ending weather of rain and clouds : ( I think I'm getting the DT's from the
lack of starlight.

regards,CS

[citivolus]

Last I heard it was sitting around 3.6%.

[gaa_ian]

Still at 3.6 % likelyhood, still in planetary science terms this is quite likely !
It has certainly captured my imagination and I liked this Utube animation so much I have posted it on my blog page
http://www.nightskysecrets.com/blog/2008/01/mars-asteroid-impact-30th-jan-2008-1-in.html

If it does hit it will be a scientific bonanza !

[Outbackmanyep]

The Mars rovers and probes will have the best views!!!! I wonder how they would react if there were humans on Mars already??

[citivolus]

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news156.html

[gaa_ian]

Oh Well ..... :shrug: it was good while it lasted and certainly captured peoples imaginations :P

[Ric]

In the famous words of Maxwell Smart "missed him, by that much"

Cheers