I don't think SpaceX can get NASA back to the moon

[ChrisD]

I hope I'm wrong. but with the last launch attempt lasting approx 8 minutes before loss of both vehicles it doesn't look good given that the contract specifies landing on the moon in 2025.

I lived through the Apollo moon landing missions, in fact it was the most inspirational event that i have ever experienced, and I would love to see fresh footprints up there. However, Artemis just appears so unnecessarily complex.

For example, after launch starship will need 15!! further refueling launches to fill its tanks before it leaves for the moon. Starship is huge, they will be landing a 23 storey building on the uneven lunar surface.

I just dont think its realistic.

Chris

[Leo.G]

I guess my concept of an iris type mechanism with stabiliser arms to support the upright vehicle would add too much weight and complexity but I still wonder at Space X trying to stand a pencil on it's end (blunt end thankfully).
I understand they learn from their failures but eventually it becomes a lot of money sunk into the project without much forward motion (advancements).

[Startrek]

I too grew up through the Apollo era and its was the greatest engineering feat the world has ever witnessed
To look at the Space X Starship program achievements to date is absolutely astounding as a private company
Comparing the Saturn 5 to version 2 Starship is like comparing a kids dinky to a Aston Martin
Version 3 will have a lift off thrust at ground zero of 21 million pounds compared to Saturn 5 at 7.6 million
Starship will eventually be 100% usable
Saturn 5 was 98% disposable
Cost per tonne to orbit is orders of magnitude lower than Saturn 5
Saturn 5 carried 3 crew to the moon and back
Starship will carry up to 100 to Moon , Mars and beyond
So comparing the Apollo program ( Government funded using 400,000 American workers ) to the Starship program ( Privately funded using 5000 staff ) is really difficult.
Starship is not a 2 or 3 year program for success , it’s going to take up 4 or 5 years to hit orbit and return both ship and booster for a safe landing and even longer for interplanetary visits.
Starship will get to the Moon and Mars but not before 2030.
Artemis is going to die a slow death as its old Shuttle technology slapped together into a modified Clayton’s Apollo program. Super Expensive and doesn’t have 100% support of the American people.
Whether you agree or disagree Starship has certainly got me excited about future space travel.
Cant wait for ITF4 next month , if they get through re entry and soft land Starship and Booster then progress will accelerate
Cheers
Martin

[ChrisD]

Lets just look at reusability of Starship HLS.

Starship HLS does not have a heat shield, so it's definitely not coming back to Earth (in one piece) and there is no plans to refuel it in the lunar near-rectilinear halo orbit also they don't carry enough fuel to return to LEO so they will be disposed of in heliocentric orbit. So not reusable.

Also with 15+ tanker launches needed just to refuel the Starship to get to the moon for a single landing on the surface, will that be cheaper or more efficient than a single Saturn 5 launch needed for an Apollo mission?

As for privately funded, NASA have already paid $1.83 billion to SpaceX just to see 3 launch vehicle explode. I'm willing to bet that no Apollo era Saturn 5 engineer ever said that "Everything after clearing the tower was icing on the cake." as Kate Tice did. I guess for them failure is an option :)

Chris

[Constant]

The problem, mass or too much of it, Starship carries too much mass. Rather than 10-15 refueling missions of cryogenic fuel and all the losses associated with cryogenics.
Run starship in its current configuration, strap x2 or x4 DUMB solid fuel boosters, make them massive, run a much higher MaxQ the only vectoring via the mighty starship engines. Get the “milk run” refuel done in one mission.
Discarding mass is how the mighty Apollo reached the Moon, landed and return her precious and delicate cargo too their family’s
Run bloody big, dumb ass, solid boosters and our wet dreams become reality, in our lifetimes

[mldee]

Yep, I'm surprised SpaceX engineers hadn't considered any of these solutions before deciding on their final configuration. /s

[alpal]

Martin,

I wonder if going back to the Moon is so difficult
that 400,000 people is what you actually need to do it?

With all the last rockets launched, blowing up, you wouldn't get
me volunteering to go on one. :rolleyes:

Allan