Did BOM get it wrong about El Niño

[Startrek]

Did the BOM get it wrong about predicting a hot dry summer ( El Niño ) in most parts of Australia for the 2023 /2024 season ?
So far on the eastern part of the continent we’ve had higher than average rainfalls since the end of October last year , severe flooding in northern NSW and SE Queensland and endless cloudy days and nights.
To date this has been the longest period of endless cloudy nights ( 29th October 2023 to 3rd January 2024 ) mid to south east coast of NSW since I started the hobby back in 2017 and it ain’t over yet. Latest predictions are that this trend will continue until mid March.
Hopefully we might score just one clear night between now and then ?

I suppose a good time to do some Astro house keeping ( my Dome has never been cleaned ( Kartcher pressure cleaner ) since I installed it nearly 3 years ago , sorry spiders but you will have to find another home )
Also The 12” Goto dob is filthy so a clean and service is well over due too.

Comments , Rants , Whinging , frustration all welcome

Cheers
Martin

[Leo.G]

My grass is green, under my house is an absolute swamp, they have NO IDEA.
Meteorologist, the only job in the world where you can be wrong every day for 50 years, keep the job and still get a gold watch on retirement......
We've already had 3 years of constant rain west of the Blue Mountains, I was finally hoping for some decent weather and clear skies.
Plus there's the other thing about that beautiful burnt brown grass I don't have to mow every week.......

[rustigsmed]

Sept
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-19/bom-officially-declares-el-nino-underway-2023/102495394

30 nov
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-30/summer-bushfire-outlook-2023-afac-bom/103160182

I was thinking the same thing.

[Steffen]

It seems like the more technology and computing power they throw at weather forecasting the more unreliable it gets.

[The Mekon]

It has rained every day this year where I am - and forecast showers for yet another week.
So the BOM have got this summer wrong, the science of long range forecasting clearly is not settled, and neither is the primary cause of the world's current warm period.
I am reading this book at present, I recommend it to all.

[Leo.G]

We've had some massive storms the past few days in Lithgow. Yesterday started out sunny and fine, by mid day it was teaming down and a lot of thunder and lightening.
A few days ago our maximum was 13c, it's summer or so I'm told, we usually het anywhere from mid 30's to relatively high 40's.

[Matthieu]

I’m really curious to see what will be learnt from this. As far as I understand el ninõ is in progress but isn’t impacting Australia in the usual way. I’m wondering if the way it developed (NOAA called it months before BOM which possibly indicates something unusual) has something to do with it.

[Boozlefoot]

No leadership or mentors left. Another classic example of the downfall caused by government departmental madness, and the demonic rise of political correctness. Independent forecasters are out (with their radical and unfavourable predictions), and in with the "yes" brigade (with their mediocre and public-calming BS )

El Nino and El Nina = El Nonsense. Now there's no accurate responsible prediction - it's either Nino or Nina (with the excuse that it may change "without warning")

Bring back Inigo Jones and Lennox Walker! (For those who can remember!)

Doesn't hurt to have a look out the window, either, and see what the ants and birds are telling you. Look at the tree bark, and growth patterns, they can also be a longer term indicator.

Accurate public weather forecasting is now a thing of the past, apart from if we ourselves use NOAA's radar and sat. imagery. (So much better than our BOM) Try it, you'd be surprised how accurate you will get after only a month or two. (Keep an exercise book type diary for a year or two!)

It's going to be wet - you're just getting into Solar Cycle 25, and these cycle usually go for 11 years or so.

:cloudy:

[xelasnave]

How disappointing to observe the mob mentally in this thread..uninformed "non" experts jumping to put the boot in without considering something more than normal is going on...Mathieu has demonstrated a sensible approach.


alex

[doug mc]

Could someone trained in meteorology tune in here. From an article i read a few weeks back by someone in the profession, stated that, the north west and central parts of Australia would experience the worst of the hot dry trend. I live on Tamborine Mountain, if you have been watching the news you would know we are still without power since Xmas day. Yes it's been a lot wetter than you would expect from a generalised view of BOM predictions. We all just want electricity back here.

[JA]

True, we're about 30% in to Solar Cycle 25, maybe 2 years away from the Solar Maximum with well over (~> +50%) of what was predicted for the "strength" (number of sunspots) for the cycle by the combined NOAA / NASA / ISES prediction panel in 2019.

As an aside, The solar maximum accords with warmer weather, so it's coming. The local effects of what happens around the globe vary considerably depending on locality, proximity to water, vegetation, time of year/season (i.e: position relative to sun), latitude, which in their own way are related to the strength of solar radiation received in that location and how that energy is absorbed or reradiated: into the atmosphere, into the land mass, into the oceans or into the wonderfully and increasingly absorbent urban jungle.

The Sun is King and is the shorter term driver of our climate both in its radiative output and its production of the solar wind / charged particle ejections etc. and its/their interactions with cosmic rays our magnetosphere, atmosphere, land masses and oceans. In the much longer term our galactic position and orbital parameters also have an effect on ice ages and interglacial periods.

Best
JA

[Leo.G]

I didn't realise it was a prerequisite of this forum (nor any other) that you must be an expert before any opinion can be proffered.
I'll refrain from posting in the future!

[The Mekon]

A bit over the top Alex, far from your usual sagacious posts.
The BOM do not deserve criticism for supposedly failing to inform of the recent heavy rains in Qld and NSW (which they indeed did do) - yet the media is full of such stories.
But I think it is quite OK to point out how wrong they were in their long range forecast of a El Nino event causing a dry hot summer.

[sheeny]

You don't have to look far:


https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/03/experts-warned-el-nino-was-likely-to-bring-australia-a-hot-dry-summer-what-happened

[xelasnave]

I did not say you need be an expert...why say such a thing?

alex

[xelasnave]

Sure and there is a decent way to do that don't you think?

alex

[Leo.G]

No but it was strongly implied!



The couple of posts that were quickly deleted, no doubt after complaints, one post of which was mine, I thought my mention was more on the humorous side but I forget people often don't share my sense of humour. Same as the mention of the gold watch on retirement after being wrong every day for 50 years, that's from a joke a gentleman in his late 60s told me over 50 years ago.


As for the title thread, "did the BoM get it wrong?"
Most definitely!
We currently have flooded streets locally after another HUGE downpour yet I remember all of the media mention of our hot, dry summer which I'm sure some parts of Australia are likely getting. We've had days here hovering around 12c, most unusual in summer.

[JA]

It is not Leo. I can understand and it is unfortunate that you were made to feel that way.
Please feel free to continue to share your opinion to your heart's content



Please don't do that. Keep talkin' brother :thumbsup:

Best
JA

[xelasnave]

I wrote the words I wrote and know I intended no such implication:D and my comments were merely addressing the lack of respect for a wonderful organisation.

I hope you are well and had a wonderful Christmas and a great New Years Eve.

I guess you can blame me for all the wet as that's what I was wishing for ...merely a self interest thing generated from fear of being burnt out once more in my life time.

Take care and I look forward to more of your wonderful contributions.


alex

[Startrek]

Thanks all for your comments so far
I guess a positive side to the endless cloudy nights is spending more time with family and friends , especially through the holiday season and completing all those little jobs that you keep putting off.
The Universe will still be there when this weird weather pattern finally decides to change and allow us to get back into this truly amazing hobby.

Cheers
Martin

[SimmoW]

Dare I mention the large Elephant over in the corner .....his name is Climate Change aka Tipping Points. I believe we are witnessing the early stages of changes in the weather patterns and therefore unpredictability. So the BoM predictions will only become less accurate for awhile. I really hope I'm wrong though.

Jeeze, down here near Violet Town Vic, it's as humid as heck! Wet of course, but the humidity, haven't felt it this bad for many years. Hearing frogs in Jan??? Crazy. Ominous.

[sharkbite]

I think this sums it up nicely

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-07/wet-el-nino-weather-pattern-explained-bureau-of-meteorology/103289232

[trek1701]

In today's The Age Newspaper.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/the-weather-hangover-that-is-delivering-a-sodden-summer-20240117-p5exv0.html