Inflation

[Peter Ward]

Software Bisque announced today that due inflation pressures their mount
pricing would increase by about 6%

In $US the PME is now $USD17,595.00 or close to $A30k landed at the current exchange rate.
They are not alone either...many US suppliers have raised their wholesale prices in the last few months.

Inflation just 2%? ....surely the government wouldn't be lying to us :rofl:

[roughy]

In order to lie, a government must know what it is talking about!

[Nikolas]

2% in australia it is more in other countries

[gary]

Many global supply chains are currently broken with lead times deep into 2022.

Companies stopped making stuff and shut down and in turn the companies that supply them
with raw materials and other inputs had shut down as well.

Suddenly as businesses fire-up again, they want supplies today.

So hence the global supply chain crises. People in the real world in procurement are battling with it at the moment.

Apart from shortages of some manufactured goods, this will also see an
increase in prices and an inflationary trend.

The US Fed had originally believed that magically supply chains would
be restored quickly and the economy would bounce back into full swing
due to pent-up savings.

You can have all the pent-up savings you want, but you may not be able
to buy it or you will have to be prepared to pay a premium for it.

Avoid buying a new car this year. Features that were standard prior to the pandemic
on some models are not being provided on this year's models because they can't get
components. Back to mechanical dials and controls rather than touch panels, for example.

The US Fed now acknowledges these problems will “linger well into
next year” so now they have had a change of heart and are preparing
to fight inflation.

Given Australia is no different - we buy the same things - one might well expect
inflationary pressure on prices going into and during 2022.
Whether this results in an increase in interest rates and a bursting of the
Australian property bubble is yet to be seen.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/good-time-to-retire-that-word-fed-chief-s-abrupt-change-of-heart-shakes-markets-20211201-p59don.html

[Peter Ward]

Given Sydney mortgages are now around seven figures,
petrol is now around $2.00 a litre, lamb cutlets $50.00 a kilo,
many groceries that came in 750gram bags/boxes are now in 500 gram bags/boxes (but cost the same),
$1.10 to send a letter but with deliveries only every other day,
plus a lot of talk about electricity getting “cheaper due renewables” while not being reflected in smaller energy bills,
and the current version of my car now costs 30% more than the exact same model cost me 3 years ago.

I’d have observe while you are correct in saying the “official” Australian inflation is 2%.....
but that figure simply does not reflect the current cost of living.

[leon]

Petrol $2.00 a liter rubbish
Lamb Chops 50.00 a Kilo, rubbish
A letter stamp 65 cents at this time of the year

Your living in the wrong place Peter.

Leon

[Startrek]

Latest 2021 figures for CPI to the September quarter
Nothing surprising
Brace yourselves it’s probably going to get worse
I feel for my kids and grandkids what the future holds, just holding down a job is a priority, let alone buying property and paying off a monster mortgage , and we live in the lucky country. I would call it “great” but not “lucky” anymore
My 2 cents .....


https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release

[Peter Ward]

While the Shire is often referred to as "God's country" :) ....

I'm not making this stuff up....

Lamb cutlets (https://costies.com.au/product/australian-lamb-cutlets-frenched/)

Fuel (https://fuelcheck.nsw.gov.au/app/FuelPrice/ByLocation?latitude=-34.035104&longitude=151.05491&fuelType=P98&brands=BP&radius=4&suburb=SUTHERLAND&postcode=2232)

And as I won't be sending a Christmas card to Santa, $1.10 is the going rate.;)

[Zuts]

Ouch, but if you look around https://shop.coles.com.au/a/national/everything/search/lamb%20cutlets

I go to a Canterbury independent for my diesel, for some reason it's not on pricewatch but it's $1.56 a liter.

[Nikolas]

Peter I don't know where you are shopping from but I have not paid those prices here in Melbourne for any of the items you have listed. Yes petrol is higher than normal but not what you are quoting and it is scheduled to drop as oil prices have come down.

[Peter Ward]

Interesting, but I'd note the Coles equivalent "extra trim" aka French Cut lamb cutlets are still up there ($45.00 kg)

As for fuel prices...well...I do drive a Tesla...hence what the fuel cycle is
doing is moot to me...but clearly stung those so affected last week.

[Kal]

Software Bisque raises it's prices every year?

[Drac0]

I purchased a CLS filter a couple of weeks ago (before the sales) for $80, today it's $130 for the same thing - now THAT'S inflation...

[UniPol]

I notice there has been a substantial increase in the price of Sky-Watcher's Esprit OTA's recently. I seem to recall that Esprit 150 was $6999 for a long time but S-W's latest catalogue shows a list price of $9499.99 https://skywatcheraustralia.com.au/product/150-1050-ed-triplet-apo-esprit-refractor/ This price increase seems indicative of the other smaller Esprit models as well.

One has to ask, is this inflation or just a sign of the world situation at the moment?

[Peter Ward]

No. Historically price rises have been applied only due higher base costs and subsequently announced with no correlation to the calendar year.

In another post it was interesting to see a 150mm Skywatcher refractors now approaching $10k.

With discretionary purchases it looks like prices are inflating at 10x the
"official rate" i.e. 10-20%

If you have insurance on your gear, you might want to re-assess what the
real cost of replacement is.....

[Zuts]

The other models have all gone up $500. For example I purchased my Esprit 120 for $4,500 its now $4,999. The 100 was $3,500 now $3,999 and the 80 was $2,500 now $2,999.

So around %11 for the smaller models but a whopping %35 for the 150. I wonder why?

[The Mekon]

Fairly sure that the Esprit 120 was $4000 just 3 years ago. So that would be 25% increase. I am with Peter on this topic - we are getting significant increases in prices with our financial leaders burying their heads in the sand.

[Peter Ward]

FYI an Astro-Physics 5 inch GTX refractor on a Mach2 with AP pier (plus required accessories) now runs around $A 33,500.00 landed with GST

Sure.... it's a super-premium rig, but at over $A30k most amateurs would find it
hard to justify....particularly when the 130mm/Mach 1 combo was half the price not that long ago.

The phrase "Pacific Peso" comes to mind...:shrug:

[Kuz]

I purchase a lot of steel as I work in the construction and steel fabrication industry. As I last month carbon steel prices increased by around 25% in Australia and stainless steel which is imported from overseas went up by a whopping 50%. At the same time , lead time for some run of the mill materials have gone from 3 days to 4 weeks.

[multiweb]

There are still massive disruptions in supply chains. I saw the same in many different sectors. You hear the same stories.

[FlashDrive]

Please excuse my ignorance on this .... but what is causing all this disruption of supply.

Was it the COVID situation worldwide....or is it just China and their silly tactics regarding boycotts of countries who would normally buy their goods.

Col..

[Kuz]

Col , I believe there is hardly any chinese steel currently in Australia at the moment( which has always helped with lack of Australian supply) due to this the Australia steel mills, are struggling to keep up with demand by themselves.

[gary]

Purely the COVID crises.

Supply chain disruptions are significant and widespread.

And it is effecting everything from electronic components, to refrigeration
coolant, to lumber, to steel, to rubber, to glass, to chemicals,
to available truck drivers and the price of sea freight and so on and
so forth.

Spot rates on shipping 40-foot containers has risen as much as ten-fold
in recent months.

Expect to pay quadruple the price for refrigeration coolant.

Lead times on many semiconductors is now out to 30 weeks and some
into 2023. It's the worse I have ever seen it. Over the past two years,
people such as car makers had cancelled orders for things like steel
and semiconductors in anticipation of weak demand.

Wine makers report having trouble buying bottles.

[multiweb]

When I was little every glass container had something called a "consigne" meaning you had to bring it back to the place you bought it from and they paid you back a portion of the price you paid. Maybe we go back to that system progressively and do our own recycling again.

[Peter Ward]

Hearing about the Urea shortage...caused by China deciding to ban exports of the stuff to Australia (used to make Adblue and similar diesel engine anti-emission additives) it looks like long distance trucking may grind to a halt in the New Year.

The cost of all road freight may well go ballistic as a result.

Funny....we used to have these things called "Trains" that ran on steel rails to many regional towns....:rolleyes:

P.S.
As an aside, Strategically, Australia is in a mess. Can't produce mRNA vaccines, Just two steel mills, two oil refineries and four bombs away from closing *all* of the arterial roads of its largest city.

[gary]

Not specifically suspend its exports to Australia, China has announced
it has suspended its export of fertiliser products to the world until June 2022
"to ensure domestic availability amid food security concerns".

China accounts for about one-10th of the world supply of urea and one-third
of another important farm input of diammonium phosphate.

Russia has also curbed fertiliser exports for six months.

This is on the back of near record high fertiliser costs where prices have
been driven by surging energy costs and supply curtailments.

See https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/soaring-fertilizer-prices-add-inflationary-pressures-and-food-security-concerns

See https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/08/what-is-urea-and-why-does-a-worldwide-shortage-threaten-australias-supply-chain

The spin in Australia that the economy is in great shape seems blinkered
to the realities of how badly global supply chains have been disrupted,
the longer than expected times it will take them to get back to "normal"
and the rising price of just about everything against near zero
wage growth.

More honest advice may well be "hope for the best, expect the worst".

[gary]

A 11 Nov 2022 article (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/11/how-to-stop-supply-chain-issues-disrupting-the-economic-recovery/) at the World Economic Forum web site that
describes how the COVID-19 crises revealed that modern supply chains
are a house of cards, collapsing the moment they come under any kind of
sustained pressure.






Article here :- https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/11/how-to-stop-supply-chain-issues-disrupting-the-economic-recovery/

[Peter Ward]

Forgot who first said this: "I expected the worst but it was worse than I expected...."

:D

[JA]

Whoever it was obviously had low expectations ..... :D:D:D

Best
JA

[multiweb]

Isn't the chemistry to make fertilizers closely related to the chemistry to make explosives compounds? ;)

[Peter Ward]

Indeed. Beirut had a large stockpile of fertiliser (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKFupx9x0-k) until August 2020.

That said, and clearly off-topic, not sure what they put in warheads these days...might be nitrate based, but with much a higher energy density.

Any ex-military types know what the current flavour of the month is? C4? Semtex?

[multiweb]

Reading this article one gets the feeling that going to the cheapest producer as a common denominator weighted more in the balance of risks than the common sense approach of "not putting your eggs in the same basket". Then what hope was there in the first place to put resilience ahead of profit. :question:

[FlashDrive]

I've just got back from the future .... everything is still on ' back order ' . :lol:

[multiweb]

:lol::lol::lol:

[wavelandscott]

Supply Chain issues are a problem no doubt and as noted COVID is the factor. As every business has optimized for “Just In Time”, everyone counts on the continuing flow of material…as long as the ins match the outs it works fine.

That link got broken and will take some time to recover. Add in a little political hubris and an aging infrastructure and you get a mess.

[TrevorW]

Well my GSO CF 10" TRUSS NEWT has gone up $1000 since I purchased it a year ago, anyone want to buy it :)

[gary]

In some instances, the demands to keep supply chains operating during
the pandemic took a toll on human lives. This 7 December 2021 Bloomberg
article (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-12-06/how-the-global-chip-shortage-led-to-covid-tragedy-for-one-malaysian-town) brings a human face to it in reporting on individuals who tragically
died working at the STMicroelectronics NV’s facility in Malaysia.









Story here :-
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-12-06/how-the-global-chip-shortage-led-to-covid-tragedy-for-one-malaysian-town

[ausastronomer]

I work for a large integrated Agribusiness. In December 2018 we harvested 3,000 tonne of Canola which we sold for ~$180 / tonne. Over the next month we will harvest 5,000 tonne of Canola. 1,000 tonne of that was forward sold @ $800 / tonne. The rest will realise ~$1,000 / tonne. That's inflation !!

Cheers
John B

[wavelandscott]

Or good fortune depending on which side of the supply chain you participate in…

[Peter Ward]

While I'm guessing you are being glib, if the used car market is an indicator, used Astro gear may well see a price increase.

e.g. Waiting times on Takahashi have blown out to a year

Vertical markets can be fickle...I suspect if I put my Alluna RC16 up on IIS for $50k
(well below current replacement cost) all I'd hear would be crickets.....

[multiweb]

Make a package deal with the Tesla and it'll sell like hot cakes. :P

[LewisM]

Nah, stuff that, it'd need to be the Ferrari