Electric Vehicles

[TrevorW]

Honestly will they ever take off in this country with the Govt and market doing everything to hinder Australians in general taking up the EV option. No way in a fit could I afford $44000 plus for an EV vehicle(ugly), now that I'm nearing pension age.



I average less than 10k a year in my car (diesel) which gives me up to 1100km on a tank of diesel. Besides with Australia being so large,the distances between towns,cities being so great, the infrastructure doesn't exist and is not likely to exist to support EV for some time.



Examples : cheapest EV in Europe $18000 AUD -


Australia $44000


https://www.caradvice.com.au/901001/australias-five-cheapest-electric-cars-and-how-far-they-can-go-between-recharges/





Whats your opinion :)

[glend]

Trevor, as I am retired I share some of your views. While i would love to have an EV for environmental reasons, the limited range is a big problem for me, as my son's family live in Brisbane and it's 800kms door to door. I can pretty much do that on one tank of petrol in my little 1.2L turbo Renault.
My other trips are mainly down to my daughters place in northern Sydney, which could be easily done with an EV (about 220kms round trip), but any running around down there would require a charge point. My annual kilometres does not exceed 10,000kms, and has been much lower this past year, like 5000kms.
My other point is that we need to consider the environmental cost of actually building an EV for us to buy. The environmental cost of building my 2015 Renault is already a sunk cost and looked at over all the years, it gets cheaper the longer I keep it. A fuel efficient vehicle, just makes much more sense.

Finally, Australian government policy does not look like ever supporting the subsidies that our European friends enjoy. They are happy to collect petrol excise taxes which mostly goes into general revenue. Despite owning a diesel previously (for 13 years), their days are over and they should be taken off the roads. New diesel passenger car and 4wd sales should be banned, and any existing diesels in use should not be allowed to be re-registered once they are ten years old. Restricting diesel fuel sales is another incentive for change, along with raising the price every year.

At present, in Australia, EVs seem to be a toy for the wealthy looking to make a statement. I see a fair number of Tesla's around this holiday area on the weekend, and in the Hunter Valley; likely wealthy Sydney residents having a day trip within their available range.

[Camelopardalis]

I’d love an electric car, but if I was in your position fellas I’d be going with the wait-and-see approach.

Market forces will eventually come into play for the 85% of us living near the coastline, where most of the charging stations are placed.

Range anxiety is a thing of the past under that use case - it’s not like anyone travels Sydney to Brisbane without stopping for the loo ;)

Going inland might make for a different proposition, especially up here in QLD...which is much more sparsely populated away from the coast than the southern states.

FWIW, I own a diesel tow car (with caravan) and I reckon it’ll be a long wait for a replacement that isn’t diesel...

[xelasnave]

My daughter wants me to buy a Toyota Hilux (for her and her Mom) because she likes the way they look:D ...I sat up and took notice when they came back from the dealer with paper work showing a bottom line of $65,000:eyepop::eyepop::eyepop: (happily only $10,000 of that went to the government in GST, Stamp Duty and Car Registration.)

I had no idea.

anyways as you do when you start to talk about a car you start to see them all over the place..it seems every third car is a Hilux..further there other brands offering their version...so all these vehicles running around with a price tag of approx $70,000 I would say there seems to be sufficient people out there to pay big money for a vehicle..if they like the looks of it:D

The Hilux you could think is a Tradie vehicle but looking at the various drivers it seems to have a much wider market and so I would think the sucess of the Electric Vehicle will not be held back because of price but maybe some little thing that makes it fashionable or not...I think for many folk being able to boast they are "saving the planet" may be the thing that has them buying...yet others seem drawn by the high performance aspect..one can see why there are companies who make their money from engaging in and selling market research.

What gets me is how cheap you can buy a very good second hand car these days...like $4000 gets you a great vehicle...my approach to motoring is do it as cheap as possible so if an electric car is the cheapest thats what would sway me..for my daughter I guess it would have to appeal visually.

If you think about it an electric car should (other things being equal) be much cheaper just from the moving parts approach..they will have less.

Anyways it is getting to the point where the car I want is one that drives itself...and given the aging population and the folk who like to do nothing more than play on their phone I think that must be where the market has the greatest opportunity.

alex

[Camelopardalis]

Alex, I hear you :thumbsup: the price they charge for putting lipstick on a pig is shocking. Australia seems to be the new destination for “off-cuts” or “left-overs” of cars with such rudimentary technology that they wouldn’t pass the emissions or safety standards from elsewhere, and then they have the cheek to charge extortionate prices! That we judge a car on its looks and that even utes are tweaked to appeal in that way speaks volumes.

From an electric car point of view, I don’t see the purpose here yet while most of our power is generated from burning coal. I’d only want one if I was able to mostly charge it myself at home with my own solar panels, or another renewable source. This recently became easier with working from home becoming more acceptable, the times when the car being drained by running into the city and back being fewer. Once the more populous states have more renewables it becomes an easier sell.

I’d be waiting for a self-driver too. As a conurbation dweller, the advantages to an amateur astronomer are obvious...to be able to go out somewhere dark for an evening of observing/photography and not have to worry about fatigue during the drive home. That is something I would pay money for.

For the meantime, I’ll be keeping my 7L/100 diesel suv...

[muletopia]

Living inland in Western Australia with long distances to major cities
the practicality of an electric vehicle is nil.
Also I don't see statewide charging stations being in place for a very long time, probably more than ten years.
So I will stick with my plain ordinary single cab dmax ute.


Chris

[Hans Tucker]

Might be practical for around city but interstate travel I don't think you will completely get away from fossil fuel .. maybe hybrids will fill the void here. As for cost .. now that Telsla are going to be manufactured in China give it a few years for them to clone the technology and the price will drop.

[mura_gadi]

Hello,

Electrics are very limited in their environment impact imo, last I read they still lagged behind deasel.

You have a massive amount of earth moved for the batteries, they only last 50-60k's, so you need three sets to match a petrol cars life. They are limited recycling options of these batteries as well at present. All these makes a much less environmentally friendly product then we are lead to believe. A lot of misleading data can be based on whole of production/disposal/running costs ect.

However, the power output and distance really is becoming less of an issue for some models, 1200k+ on a charge is already possible.

Hydrogen is more feasible imo and certainly requires less mining of resources. The leaking in storage is the issue for hydrogen, transport wise etc, not to mention a massive need for new infrastructure - recharging stations for either.

But, we have a carbon capture method, proven and available at $1.75(CAD) per liter that removes carbon and converts back to fuel. So, at 8kilos of carbon per liter of petrol (1 tanks 50 liters, be generous 800k's to a tank, 250k k's to a lifetime = about 125 tonnes of carbon per car) and no capture.

Or a car that can run on one tank of captured carbon over and over again for a life time... But the consumer needs to accept a steep price rise. All infrastructure remains in place, and technically we could use the increased carbon capture infrastructure to go back down under 300pmm as well. (and a car that runs on 800's kilo of carbon for its life!)

We could go carbon capture at $2 a litre (pump price) and virtually not have to change a thing of the worlds economy or infrastructure to billions of people...

But, its seems we live in a world on confusion, denial and deliberate misinformation.


Steve

[Constant]

Australia is by land mass alone the most unfriendly place on earth for EVs, followed by Russia & Antarctica.
EVs are fine if you're never leaving a city Europe & by enlarge the US. for least populated inhabited continent on earth, methinks some further tech development is required.
Batteries will improve, at some point in time ICE vehicles will be superceded, we're a long way from that point ATM. At least for our fair brown land

[Pepper]

I’d never be able to do my job with an EV.
The range and charge times would make it unworkable.
Try telling that to a Tesla driving, city dwelling EV fanboys though��

[multiweb]

I think there is a general misconception that EVs are better for the environment. From resources to manufacturing and operation the footprint is similar if not worse than a conventional car for the same time period considering their efficiency and longevity.

"Green washing" is working so hard trying to justify the substitution from one mode of conventional energy for a cleaner one but the truth is there is no such thing as clean energy. The only solution is to cut on consumption. The better mode of energy is still the most efficient so you get the best outcome for the smallest amount used.

[Rainmaker]

Agreed 100% and after viewing a video of a Tesla that had been involved in a crash, I certainly won't be buying one in a hurry. The body is essentially glued together, along with a lot of cast aluminium components. the subject vehicle was involved in a crash and just split in two just behind the front seats as the glued joints failed..... not a spot weld anywhere to be seen.... :question:

[lazjen]

Manufacturing resources: currently yes, but EVs are looking more likely to have a longer lifetime overall than ICE so it's getting closer all the time - especially as processes, etc improve. It's just like what happened for ICE over the last century - things improved with better manufacturing processes, etc. It's early days for EVs, so like just about every new tech, there's things to be sorted out.

Operational cost: false. Most of the ICE vs EV comparisons on operating cost focus on the source of the energy only. Obviously this is important, since you want the cleanest energy source possible for the EV. However, these comparisons often forget: the true cost of producing the ICE fuel, the pollution released (both deliberate and accidental), the health effects and more. Even without improving our current energy production sources for electricity, a switch to EVs is much better than ICE overall. And every improvement in clean energy production moves the needle over to EVs further.

[multiweb]

Here's a good article (https://jancovici.com/en/energy-transition/transportation/is-the-electric-car-an-ideal-solution-for-tomorrows-mobility/)debating ICEs vs EVs.

[Sunfish]

I think the big reason for EVS in big cities in Europe and elsewhere, and the provision of subsidies is air pollution. Everything an ICE car produces from fuel vapour to combustion is carcinogenic . Makes sense in a city to limit that.

Hydrogen is probably the future for low pollution transport in low density areas. Even hydrogen batteries at some point in the future. Like those you will soon be able to buy for your house. Just not yet.

[lazjen]

I'll counter your 2000/2015 article with this more recent animated video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mk-LnUYEXuM (And yeah, I realise this is not "hard evidence", but I can't be bothered digging up the references right now and this is easier to just watch :p )

[Sunfish]

Yes you do need to look at a complete life cycle energy cost of any alternative.

In the case of cities, that would include a whole of city approach. Cities in all ways transfer their pollution and energy demands to the regions, transport and growing of food is one the biggest besides generation of electricity and production of materials. EVs are just one more factor in energy production and use transfer to another location.

[multiweb]

Exactly and transfer is the keyword here. The net result of the whole exercise is that global emissions are still accelerating at the same rate no matter what was done or told. I'll leave it at that to ponder.

[AdamJL]

My next car will be an EV. My current car is only 3 years old so it’ll be a few more years yet but definitely I’ll be buying an EV. And I’ll be getting a battery for my home. Luddite Governments can get stuffed.

[marc4darkskies]

I for one will NEVER buy a battery EV, especially while I live in a rural area. Range, recharging times, worse performance in cold weather (recharging and range), degradation of battery performance over time and the carbon footprint of battery manufacture all factor in to my thinking.

I will however be an early adopter of Hydrogen fuel cell cars when the technology matures and so long as the refuelling infrastructure is in place. Ask me again in 10 years. :lol:

[glend]

Let's look at this idea of poor EV battery performance in cold weather. These are not lead acid batteries, and this is not northern Canada or Norway in January. A typical Li cell will lose about 1/3 of its current capacity at -10C, which would be the about the coldest it could encounter in Australia. This causes a reduction in range, but can be countered somewhat by battery heating. Common accessories in cold countries would include battery heaters, insulation blankets, etc. LI batteries suffer from minimal degraded output performance over time, the life span is expressed in terms of the number of charging cycles. Average lifespan is usually quoted as 7 years assuming daily use, or should I say the recommended change interval is seven years.
Changing of battery packs is fairly straight forward, and likely to be increasingly serviceable in years to come.

As Europe moves towards elimination of ICE production targets, more and more innovation in EV service, products, etc will drive efficiencies. Tesla is about to release its Semi Prime Mover.
Sure, right now, you would not invest in an EV to haul a road train across the country, but never say never.

[Camelopardalis]

Respectfully glend, I disagree. I've been doing some homework into solar with battery storage for our home and Tesla only quote 70% capacity after 10 years.

While I hope that in 10 years time the replacements will be a lot cheaper, the Powerwall units are still quite costly at the moment. For a good sized home, it almost makes more sense to buy the EV and use it as battery storage. Especially as a retiree or a "work from home"-ee...

[Wilsil]

There will be no choice if the car manufacturing industry is no longer making ICE cars.
I know it will be a while but it will happen.

[glend]

I agree with you on this Dunk, in relation to home batteries, because the recommended life span of EV batteries is seven years. The big limiting factor on Li battery life is charge cycles, they have a finite number of cycles. So i am not at all surprised about a 10 year replacement term, in fact I would suggest that is optimistic.
I have an AGM battery bank attached to my (standalone) shed solar system, which has been in place for nine years now. I am on second set of 4 x 100AH AGM batteries. Given the cost of the batteries, I cannot make a business case for doing it again, but it has been an interesting technical exercise.
I will not buy a Powerwall or other home battery solution, especially when I can sell my excess home roof generated power to the Grid for no added cost. The business case for my home rooftop, return to grid system, had a three year payback, nine years ago.

[glend]

I believe 2030 is a key year, when most EU manufacturers will have stopped all ICE production. The US Federal government has a program to convert its entire vehicle fleet to EV, thanks to a Joe Biden initiative. This program creates a critical mass incentive for US EV production. If key markets like these create a tipping point, the world market will follow, or be marginalised to deliveries in countries like Australia, and you can bet ICE unit costs of production will rise as EV costs of production decline.

[glend]

In the EU there has emerged a fairly significant new auto service sector, EV battery pack replacements, and upgrades. Utube has a number of these businesses featured, I have attached one here:

https://youtu.be/C4nS_tSQiVQ

A couple I have watched are focused on the long selling Nissan Leaf, and the significantly larger capacity packs now available for these older vehicles.
It suggests that the battery capacity you might buy today in a new EV, may, upon replacement in seven or so years, gain significant range enhancement.
And importantly, a whole new automotive sector emerge here in Australia.

[Wilsil]

My wife already told me that she wants an EV.
I agree with her, but we are only using it in the city.
Only if the pricing is coming down.

I will still have my 4.7 V8 LX470 for camping trips though. :-)

[Sunfish]

Good for you. A lot of people have voted with their feet and put PV on their roofs even if it does not have much of a payback period without complex heat pumps. The result is that governments and generators have had to plan to adapt the infrastructure and move forward instead of setting the voters against each other. The same will happen with EV and battery storage , particularly if hydrogen fuel cells become widespread in cars and houses. The metal hydride fuel cells are said to have a 30 year life. Tesla can get stuffed too.

[Stonius]

My petrol car only has a range of 500km or so.


So can you also say that the infrastructure doesn't exist for petrol vehicles?


No?


Okay then, is it that there are no charging stations to be found withinin that 500km journey?


Nope. Look at the map. You'd struggle to drive 500km anywhere in coastal Australia *without running across a charging station.


And let's face it, no-one drives for 800km without stopping, do they? Snacks, wee breaks, etc. I really don't understand what the reticence is here. My next car will be electric, I'm hoping. But without mass adoption we're being left behind in what is an inevitable change. Already car manufacturers are avoiding releasing electric models here because our environmental policies are so backward they damage market. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-30/nissan-says-australia-missing-out-electric-vehicle-market/100173124


Free markets are deciding in favor of renewables all over the world, except here for some reason.



Markus

[mswhin63]

Couldn't be bothered showing the whole quote, Marcus all good points, I think a lot of people think the government has to set up the infrastructure. In most countries overseas the infrastructure is done by private enterprise. The same exists for fuel vehicles although the Government lacks the initiative to be fair. If they were to provide the same support to ICE support and revenue to EVs, it would be a different story.

But it appears in recent reports the Government are more inclined to support Hydrogen power vehicles. In saying that the failing is then the Government are forcing consumers into one area instead of providing choice.

Anyway, all the myth reports on EV's from manufacture to disposal has all been debunked. EV's are far closer to carbon-neutral and ICE, mostly due to ongoing running.

I would love to get an EV, but I do want to travel and under the current environment I am not sure I can afford a decent EV for quite a while yet.

I would also like to go camping, but EV's that are accessible will out of the price range for a lot longer. For Australia, it is mostly for the rich or well to do. Until there is a swing in popularity.

BTW, is only a condensed map, there are a lot more re-charging stations out there. I could even if all goes well be able to make it across the Nullabor on the current set-up. The only issue would be confidence in the infrastructure. Not entirely there yet.

[lazjen]

Brilliantly said, Markus.

My next vehicle will be EV in several years time, probably a Toyota or Subaru SUV. I expect decent range and towing capacity as well. I don't need to drive 1000kms and frankly, my days of doing any trips that long are probably behind me. My longest distance trips these days, would possibly get to 500km in a day, with several stops along the way. Plenty of time to top up the charge.

I do expect, because of our incompetent, corrupt politicians that I will pay an unnecessary premium for the car though.

[TrevorW]

Unfortuantely that map is a bit misleading people are not going to hang around for 10-20 hrs to have their cars charged (Green) fast charges 1/2-1hrs are few and far between and unless EV's can gives ranges comparable to current fossil fuel cars then your market is going to be limited to city commuters for some time to come. Oh and I can attest to the fact that a lot of people will drive considerable distances in WA without stopping even if they do stop for a pee or drink they don't want ot wait around for hours for their car to charge :)

[JA]

Some other considerations for electric vehicles:

In addition to the number and distance between fast charge points for an electric vehicle one should also factor in the availability / distance to EV capable service centers. Vehicle reliability should also factor in to that consideration.

Best
JA

[Peter Ward]

It’s amazing how opinion passes as fact with the help of a little mis-information from the fossil fuel industry ( including multinationals that are richer than many small countries, allowing them to buy their politicians..and they do) and helps to stoke old EV fears/falsehoods/prejudice.

You laugh?

Well, Scotty from marketing announced a week or so ago that Australian taxpayers (yes, that's a good slab of your wages taken as tax) would give $2.3 Billion in subsidies to prop up Australian oil refineries.

One wonders how $2.3 billion would go for the installation of a national fast EV charging network... the Libs however are duplicitous as while they apparently believe in a subsidy-free market system (well one has to be reasonable...and exclude the fossil fuel industry) .. and one certainly can't use taxpayer funds to actually encourage any EV uptake around here.

After 18 months of ownership I recently got rid of my first EV.

I now have my second EV ( being a "rich urban dwelling type" it is also a Tesla) as the new 2021 model has increased range (To be sure, Tesla lie claiming 628km....in practice it's 540km in real world driving…but advertising is full of myths).

It's still brilliant. Costs bugger all to run (I charge it with our PV panels) plus it has NO emissions. Well, the humans in it might fart/belch but that's it.

I'll be driving it to the Parkes CWAS astrofest this year. The car will easily cover the 291km distance from Sydney, but Tesla's supercharging station at Bathurst will provide a welcome coffee/tea/pee stop and allay any range anxiety plus the need to charge it while in Parkes. The round trip will likely come with a $6.40 supercharger energy bill, but my ICE car would have chewed 70 odd litres of fuel to do the same trip. Do the math with the ICE fuel of your choice. Bugger. 15x more expensive.

As for glib comments about Tesla's being glued together, they are utter rubbish: even a cursory look at their production-line welding-robots shows this is pure BS, as are other safety red herrings. The facts are that the USA's NTSB crash test results rated them has having one of the highest safety scores EVER.

Lastly for those saying they will never own an EV, with the likes of VW, JLR, Lamborghini, Volvo, Kia ,GM all going to EV only production, I predict ICE offerings will be next to nil within a decade. Battery energy densities have doubled in the past decade, hence expect a +1000km range in the next decade. BTW the batteries are recycled already to recover their Lithium and other rare earths.

Those clinging to ICE technology better get used to walking, or maybe treading water as the EV Tsunami is coming whether you like it or not. It's not like we actually have a car industry to take a contrary position.

Here's a thought. Resurrect the Australian car industry and manufacture coal powered cars.

Scotty from marketing I believe has this plan.... he'll make them in Stanley (Northern Tasmania) to lure those unreasonable tree-hugging green voters that infest the region ....and already has name for it: "The Stanley Steamer" ! (worth a Google)

[TrevorW]

Mr Ward you are funny, I was wondering how long it would take for you to comment. I beg to differ and bet you not in 20 years for this country, we will be buying all those ICE vehicles they can't sell elsewhere :)

[DJT]

That’s gold! Googled it and am also currently listening to the Stanley Steamer by Jo Stafford on Spotify whilst imagining Scotty from marketing in top hat and tails calling “roll up, roll up for a journey into the future in the miracle of the modern age!”

:lol:

[The_bluester]

I don't reckon even that is right.

Despite all the noise in Canberra the free market is deserting coal fired power like rats from a sinking ship. The generator owners are putting their money where they see the future lying and coal fired generators are dropping off one by one. Meanwhile I work for one of a large number of companies that are madly building decently large scale renewables and/or storage technologies. The federal government may be wringing their hands and decrying the "Loss" of generation capacity with Lidell closes, but AEMO does not agree with them at all what the potential shortfall is, and I bet you the hole is filled by the time Lidell actually closes. Remember the predictions about massive price rises and blackouts in Vic when Hazlewood closed?

Regards Teslas and being glued together, quite apart from what Peter wrote above, what about it? Plenty of modern cars are bonded with adhesives in lots of places rather than welded. A friend had to fill the sunroof of a rally car he was building as openings like that in the roof were not allowed. He had a panel formed with a rolled edge to fit the hole precisely and fitted it with a metal adhesive. Prior tests showed that (As the seller advised him would be the case) the metal would tear before the adhesive gave away.

We are just waiting for delivery of what I am quite sure will be our last new purely fossil fueled car. EV is not quite there yet for our use scenarios and there are no suitable hybrids for now, but I am pretty sure that an EV will fit the bill by the time we need to replace our next car in five or six years.

[JohnF]

Am a vOLUNTEER IN THE rURAL fIRE sERVICE, Bush fire brigade.

a FEW YEARS AGO OUR BRIGADE WAS TOLD if we are called to an Accident with an Hybrid Electric Car we should stand well bACK AND LET IT BURN, EVEN if there are People trapped inside.

See the fumes from the burning batteries are toxic, and our RFS bushfire brigade does not carry breathing equipment.

New car may be different, but that was what we were told a few years ago.

in such a case we would call on our radios for a Town Brigade with breathing gear, but by then any occupants of that electric car would be dead.

So these cars may suit in the city, but not away from the city.

[xelasnave]

It is a pity the prospect of an electric car has become a somewhat emotional prospect.

It need not be so for it cant happen over night.

There are approximately one and a half billion cars in the world and current production of electric cars I think would be around 4 million per annum...now even if production of electric cars doubles each year, which at some point it simply can not maintain such growth and at best must level out a production level equivalent to the current production of internal combustion engine cars, it will take time... if one were to think it thru one will realise it will take some considerable time to replaced all the internal combustion engine cars.

Those who want it to happen immediately are simply unrealistic .

I think what we could find is there will be a place for the internal combustion engine for a very long time to come whilst we wait for practical recharging solutions etc.

I think a good idea a little down the track would be to have a set up like with the trams where on major highways we have a cable that electric cars can hook onto that takes away the range problem...so a trip from Melbourne to Brisbane would require only rest stops as fuel stops would at that point be a thing of the past...
The real problem that even now is developing is each camp has no tolerance of the other which is really stupid ...the market will determine the outcome and by the market I mean the market as influenced by political lobbyists;)...and that is the way it always has been and always will.
Finally electricity will most likely win because you can transport it down a wire which is cheaper than a fleet of tankers and storage tanks...the oil lobbies really are fighting a lossing battle long term.
Alex

[garymck]

Hi Glend,
tried to PM you, but got a message that you have pm's turned off?
cheers
Gary

[Outcast]

That's interesting John but, you might wish to read this study which suggests that an EV fire is not necessarily more dangerous or toxic than an ICE vehicle fire.. that is not to say there aren't dangerous or toxic chemicals aren't being released into the air but, rather there is not necessarily more danger in either circumstance...

https://www.batterytechonline.com/testing-and-safety/how-dangerous-are-burning-electric-vehicles

I guess the issue here might be that you & your team are already exposing yourself to unknown dangers in attending an ICE vehicle fire that have been somewhat down played in the past perhaps...

Anyways, interesting study & read...

There are other similar studies & test reports available online... it seems the conclusion is that whilst there are 'different' dangers related to an EV fire, they are no more dangerous to firefighters than an ICE vehicle fire...

[AdamJL]

That.... is extreme.
I hope I never get into an accident in an electric vehicle in your neck of the woods.

[lazjen]

For those that are worried about EVs and towing or range: https://www.ford.com/trucks/f150/f150-lightning/2022/

You know when the company that ships the highest selling pickup truck is moving to EV that it's serious. Think of the traditional market they are targeting here. It needs to tow, it needs to have range, it needs to have power. It has to be as good or better than the current ICE version.

Time to get over your fears of EV - ICE is on its way out. Shame we are dragging our heels here in Australia, but with the incompetence and corruption we have in our political arena, I guess it's to be expected.

[HarryD]

I am reluctant to enter this discussion due to the large amount of misinformation and uninformed comment that has been posted.
I am the owner, and driver, of a Tesla Model 3 SR+, the least expensive in the Tesla range. Have had the vehicle for 18 months. Do not have another car. Trouble free 21,000km.
From reading the other posts I think there is one other EV owner/driver who has made comments.
A couple of points, if I may.
If you haven’t owned/driven an EV, how can you comment on the pros/cons.
The age demographic of people interested in astronomy is middle aged at best. A very conservative and set in their ways group. Usually unwilling to change or adapt. I am 72.
Global warming is a real and very dangerous threat to our grandchildren’s future. Emissions must be reduced for us, and future generations not to mention wildlife.
It costs me $34 to do the return trip from the Northern Beaches of Sydney to Canberra to visit my daughter. The rest of the time the car is charged from the 40% of the unused energy from my rooftop PE cells/battery. Cost, zero. Also no servicing costs. I know comments will be made as to the cost of all this. EV rooftop solar, battery etc. I am a retired teacher, as is my wife, we are not millionaires. It’s all about priorities.
My EV takes 20 -30 minutes to charge using a super charger. Time enough to have a cuppa and stretch the legs. Range is a realistic 350 km with a bit to spare at the end.
I am driving to Tasmania, from Sydney, around Tasmania and back, Covid willing. No problems with charging.
Economically and environmentally there is no argument. As I said before, it’s all about priorities.
In closing, change, big change, is coming. Like to or not. Change or be left behind.
I know some people will be upset with what I have posted but sometimes things need to be said.
Fire at will.

[TrevorW]

Harry its nice to know at 72 you can afford a $64000 (base price) vehicle, regardless of the environmental and economics of an electric vehicle the sheer cost to acquire is beyond the pockets of most, and n large parts of Australia they are not practical at present:)

[JohnF]

It is because the fumes can kill the firefighters if they get too close with out breathing Equipment. And our RFS brigade does not have breathing equipment.

[JohnF]

This was Hybrid cars of a few years back. Some more modern cars may have changed in this reguard.

[Sunfish]

https://www.geotab.com/blog/ev-battery-health/

[AndyG]

No ill thoughts to those who can afford such. I'm currently on a 20yr old Falcon 1tonner, with 360,000km on the clock and a market value of $1500. No, I didn't miss a zero. Not entirely by choice, needless to say.

I hope either the EV prices drop at a rate where "those who are left behind" actually have an option to purchase a registerable vehicle...

[Slawomir]

Last year I bought an electric (battery-powered) lawnmower. It is light, quiet and does the job. I'm not going back to a petrol lawnmower. At least it's a start for me. One day I would also love to swap my diesel 4WD with about 1000km range to an EV equivalent.

[lazjen]

They will, it'll just take time. Before you know it there will also be a supply on the second hand market as well.

[Wilsil]

I am still surprised how many 200 series are driving around the suburbs. They are well over that price and by most people only used in the city.
Now that's wasting your money. But everyone to their own.
I agree the pricing is the major hurdle for now.

[lazjen]

Another good video to watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJco59SHpQM

[glend]

Look Harry is doing what he can, and why not. Often decisions by retirees are based on rebalancing or
redistribution of their assets, to better support their changing goals. I see ever increasing numbers of Tesla's in my area, and in the Hunter Valley, sure some of these are day trippers out of Sydney, but many seem to be folks that have moved up this way after downsizing out of a big house in Sydney.
In freeing up cash previously tied up in property, they can afford a Tesla. Honestly it makes far more sense than buying a big 4WD and a caravan that might get used a few times before the retirees realise just how much work it is, and how costly to run. Thousands of those rigs are sitting in driveways depreciating.
My son is at me all the time to buy an EV, because my driving trips are all within the current range available, but I argue that my little 1.2L turbo is the Greenest (Euro5) vehicle I could possibly own, simply because there is no new CO2 emissions associated with its production, only its very low running emissions (100gm/km, which are among the lowest available).
At some point I will buy an EV, probably a used Nissan Leaf. As these will be reasonably cheap when they get old enough for a battery pack upgrade, and the original owners get rid of them.

[gary]

The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Spectrum
Magazine featured an article (https://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/batteries-storage/chart-behind-the-three-decade-collapse-of-lithium-ion-battery-costs) three weeks ago that included a chart
based on work by Micah Ziegler Jessika Trancik and at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

It showed the dramatic drop in lithium-ion battery costs over the past three
decades (chart attached below) :-



Like the dramatic drop in the price of computers over decades, early
adopters paid a premium.



Based on current trends in the chart, by 2030, it may well transpire
that those still with ICE vehicles rather than EV's will be viewed as
those who have money to burn.

Article here :-
https://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/batteries-storage/chart-behind-the-three-decade-collapse-of-lithium-ion-battery-costs

"Re-examining rates of lithium-ion battery technology improvement and
cost decline" by Micah S. Ziegler and Jessika E. Trancik, Institute for Data,
Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, paper
published 12 March 2021 :-
https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2021/EE/D0EE02681F#!divAbstract

Chart reproduced below (Copyright Sources: Ziegler & Trancik/ Energy & Environmental Science/ Harvard Dataverse)

[gary]

Americans like their pickup trucks big and pickups rule the American road.

In a 20 May 2021 article (https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/advanced-cars/electric-trucks-cybertruck-hummer-f-150-rivian-who-will-be-first-to-deliver) at the Institute of Electrical and Electronics
Engineers (IEEE) Spectrum Magazine web site, Lawrence Ulrich
documents the offerings in America’s EV pickup truck battle between
the manufacturers, including Ford's F-150 Lightning, Tesla's Cybertruck,
the Electric Hummer, and more.

https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/advanced-cars/electric-trucks-cybertruck-hummer-f-150-rivian-who-will-be-first-to-deliver

[glend]

Thanks Gary, that IEEE Article is very informative, and importantly it highlights the looming breakeven, or tipping point approaching:

Economies of scale and technological improvements appear set to drive storage costs further, approaching the $100 per kilowatt-hour threshold. At about that level, the energy costs for EVs will reach parity with those for gasoline-powered vehicles, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

[gary]

Thanks Glenn,

And looking at the graphs, we may already be there or perhaps within
12 to 24 months away.

When you consider the price of those battery "powerwalls" for PV storage
at home are on the same cost trajectory, it would be like having your
own oil pumpjack in the backyard.

Perhaps the day will come in the not too distant future when one still has
an ICE vehicle but struggles to find a service station to refill it before you
run out of petrol.

[wavelandscott]

We supply materials into the automotive and battery market segments (displays too) and I can tell you the speed of the coming change is incredibly breathtaking.

The planned transition by the big auto makers is unlike anything I have seen before. Very technology change “S” curve stuff…(think adoption of mobile phones and related).

I am not sure people truly comprehend the likely speed and magnitude of the change coming.

While there are some situations where fossil fuels still have competitive advantage, that list is shrinking fast. Some of our own (and others) chemical recycling technologies have the potential to really alter the cost curve on reusing and replacing carbon…

If your investment horizon is longer than 15 years, be very aware of the potential cost of stranded assets in Super Fund investments…

[wavelandscott]

I should add that we did jump into a Tesla Model 3 a couple of years ago and honestly my expectations were low as to how much use it would be beyond “puttering around” to the local shops etc.

It gets a lot more use than I dreamed and replaced an ICE that we had kept just in case…we let the spare go. The Tesla replaced it easily as it turns out.

The cost of ownership and use is much cheaper than the ICE that we did keep.

The other change is in mindset as to what a car is…the simple mechanical parts helped me understand the software centric nature of the future of transportation.

If you do not like how the car handles, change a software setting, want faster acceleration or firmer brakes just change the user setting (think adjusting the ring volume on your mobile phone)…it is stunning.

[glend]

Gary, the curve neglects the cost of restructuring the economy. Breaking even on energy running cost inputs, does not address the larger cost affects. I doubt that the big petrol lobby is going just let themselves be shutdown so easily. There will be a lot of Fed govt lobbying, wringing of hands about job losses, strategic importance of ICE vehicles ( what does the Army do, buy electric tanks, where do you charge them). Then we have the whole aviation sector, what is Qantas going to do? I suspect there are decades ahead of us before even consumer ICE can be phased out. In my opinion.

[PCH]

Hey Scott, - just a quick question.

Does your Tesla go in for regular scheduled services like a regular car would? And if so, how often, what gets done and what sort of cost per service?

Thanks in advance

[wavelandscott]

The only thing done so far was a hardware update. We scheduled online and they come to us. No charge. We bought autonomous package early and a hardware upgrade is needed to run the latest update. It was wild, the technician opened it up and put in the new “brains” and ported over all our settings. Very much like going to the Apple Store for a new phone upgrade (but in my driveway). We had to take a 15 minute calibration drive to get the new “brain” oriented.

Software updates flow in automatically. At some point I am sure we will need tires but so far the car tells us nothing is needed. Electric motors can run a long long time.

In general, unlike gasoline cars, Tesla cars require no traditional oil changes, fuel filters, spark plug replacements or emission checks. As electric cars, even brake pad replacements are rare because regenerative braking returns energy to the battery, significantly reducing wear on brakes.

Basically, they recommend a 2 year air filter replacement for cabin air system and 3 years on the HEPA filter…as I mentioned tires when needed and that would be the time to check the brake fluid…. So far, nothing for us to do…

[mswhin63]

It is clear to me that ICE engines require so much maintenance in comparison to EV, also Hybrids are a lot worse than both as you have 2 motors to deal with.

I have recently seen a big push by the Petrol industry here in Aus on those thoughtful fuel companies. I think the writing is on the wall just Australia is going to take a lot longer than the rest of the world. It will be the rest of the world that will play a big part in our adoption of EV.

[Stonius]

Maybe we will end up living in a Mad Max dystopia by choice, while the rest of the world hums away quite happily on renewable energy. 😀

[Rainmaker]

I was going to buy an electric vehicle but could not find one that sounded as nice as my BMW M3 or my twin-turbo Mercedes AMG......... so I'll wait a little longer.... C'est la Vie

[raymo]

A few points to consider: The base models of the top three selling vehicles
in Aus start around $50,000, and go up to around $75,000 for a top of the line Hi-Lux, so the argument that EVs are unaffordable doesn't wash, especially as they will drop in price as sales volumes increase, and will drop further in response to the cheaper EVs now coming in from China.
Manufacturers are issuing commitments to get out of diesel and/or petrol engines in the near future, Jaguar becoming all electric by 2025, and Volvo
ceasing production of all diesel models by the end of this year
[if I remember rightly] being two examples.
With so much of the world moving ahead rapidly with the phasing out of ICEs, no manufacturer will find it worthwhile to offer ICE vehicles to tiny
markets like ours, especially as they would have to be RHD, which already prevents some current models from being marketed here.
Fast and slow charging stations are increasing in number every day; each
one being another nail in the range anxiety coffin. Range anxiety will also
have less validity as EV ranges improve.
Finally, the running cost of an EV being hugely less than an ICE powered vehicle should be offset against the higher initial purchase price.

P.S. I have a Mitsubishi ASX. Already one or two EVs have a greater range
than my car, [unless I drive at a steady 90 on level ground, and with a
tail wind].:)
raymo

[Hemi]

Hmm, I’m quite nonplussed about electric vehicles, and also energy efficient/green homes etc.

There are lots of reasons why people by “green” stuff, “doing their bit”, “cheaper in the long run”, trendy, “it’s the future” etc etc etc.

I think you should buy what you and your personal belief system allows, as long as it’s legal!

I know that the most environmentally friendly thing to do when you need to buy a house for whatever reason is to buy an old one. No matter how efficient your new one will be, building it will still use a ton of resources that will have far more of an environmental impact (materials, manufacturing, fuels etc etc) then if you buy an old one….the same applies to cars.

The problem is we live in a throw away culture. Why not just keep your current car until it’s dust, or buy an old, already manufactured one where the major environmental impact has already been done, overall it will be far more earth friendly than a shiny new Tesla, or a gorgeous EQC for that matter!

Just my 2c, as I firmly believe: each to their own :thumbsup:

[Sunfish]

Incorrect I am sorry . 80% of the energy used in a house is in the running and it just gets worse the longer you keep a leaky old house uninsulated house with poor windows.

The highest standard house in Sydney requires no heating.

Probably it will be the same with cars ,just like fridges and hot water units.

[DarkArts]

Also incorrect. For an internal combustion engine car (on average) 22% of lifecycle emissions are due to manufacture; 78% are from tailpipe emissions. IIRC, those were 2017 figures, so quite current.

Is it awful to get this wrong? Well, I just learned that 40% of Americans believe dinosaurs still live on Earth, so, in the grander scale of things, not so scandalous, really.

[Hemi]

Well I did say nonplussed and each to their own!

No Sorrys needed Sunfish. I wish that all new houses were built to the highest standards, unfortunately that is far from the reality of your average new build. Buying a pre existing house does not mean you have to buy a decrepit house either…

https://www.planetizen.com/blogs/95276-comparing-environmental-impact-building-vs-buying-home

https://www.greenhomegnome.com/new-build-or-buy-existing-home-which-is-greener/

https://www.buildingconservation.com/articles/environmental-impacts/environmental-impacts.htm

Thanks Dark Arts…I don’t think it’s so simple, certainly not for this Neanderthal. (Neanderthals were quite smart by the way)

https://www.zmescience.com/science/used-cars-more-sustainable-22072020/

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/when-used-cars-are-more-ecofriendly/

None of this 5 minute google presents robust data, but i thought I would defend the insults coming my way for a simple posting.

Non plussed= Confusion and uncertainty. But that seems to have been missed while people were fighting the dinosaurs in Canberra.


:)

[Peter Ward]

This is an excellent piece on where things are headed:
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2019-bmw-electric-car-german-engines/

[JA]

Thx - an interesting read for sure.:thumbsup: BTW welcome back to forum discussions, I've not seen your posts for a while.

Best
JA

[multiweb]

There is logic in that argument and I'm also in the camp of do with what you have, improve it or use less of it. All this green BS is just an offset, more gadgets, more new things on top of old things. It doesn't replace anything as far as the end result goes. It just adds up. More energy used, more rubbish piling up, more resources needed. The day the whole supply chain runs on so called "renewables" to the current level of energy required by people's expectation in term of availability and usage (I'm not even going into the value for money) then we can talk about the benefits.

[Sunfish]

I agree. Everyone does what they can and should enjoy their home.

Facts are different to choices however and countries are different. . I did not say you should knock down an old house to build a new one , just that the energy consumed in an old house will outweigh the energy required of a new house construction by many times. Much of an old house is recycled locally. Some comes back as high quality windows or even aggregates.

So better to plan to refit the old house to the highest possible energy standard you can afford in terms of cost. The reality is that a cheap house will have its most expensive components replaced several times over its life in any case. It is just a matter of focus. Insulation is cheap. Linings are cheap. Quality windows even are no longer unaffordable.

A new building of higher standard will require little CO2 output to manufacture as it will be mostly built of very thick sealed timber panels and timber windows with a thin metal or compressed skin.

[TrevorW]

Its all a matter of cost, jobs, industrial lobbying, policting etc etc- as with EV's, energy efficient homes are expensive - my original post was making the point that I doubt EV's will be both economical and popular in Australia before 2040 that is for the majority of the population, but I'll probably be dead by then or not driving as someone has taken away my license, but there again will I need a license with a self driving car, anyhow so I'll stick with my ICE for the foreseeable future :)