Covid-19

[multiweb]

Here's a couple of links with different reliable sources for the latest data. Might have to use google translate for some of them.

CSSE-JHU (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

WHO (https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports)

CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html)

ECDC (https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases)

NHC (http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/list_gzbd.shtml)

DXY (https://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia?scene=2&clicktime=1579582238&enterid=1579582238&from=singlemessage&isappinstalled=0)

[julianh72]

I'll add my two go-to sites:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-cases-data-reveals-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Stay healthy, everybody!

[RB]

Good thread guys.
Made it a “Sticky” for IIS members FYI, for now.
Share any pertinent info here.
Needless to say any off topic posts or political talk will be deleted and dealt with swiftly.

RB
:thumbsup:

[Sunfish]

Shutdown may flatten curve within weeks
Immunologist Peter Doherty says strict measures to fight pandemic will work.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/nobel-prize-winner-says-virus-curve-will-flatten-in-couple-of-weeks-20200324-p54dib.html?bti

[MortonH]

Only if enough idiots stop breaking the rules! :rolleyes:

[JeniSkunk]

Opinion piece from Pankaj Jain, also form Fairfax News, so it should be on the SMH site.
Don't flatten the curve, bend it: the fatal flaw in our COVID-19 strategy (https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/don-t-flatten-the-curve-bend-it-the-fatal-flaw-in-our-covid-19-strategy-20200324-p54d8f.html)

[multiweb]

We've made it to the top 17 in Oz today.

France and Italy have been in total lock down for over a week but for the occasional idiot still roaming the streets. This thing has a bit of inertia. No slowing down in sight yet.

[Rob_K]

Passed Portugal as of 4pm so 16th, better than the 15th place this morning! :( But because symptoms may not manifest themselves for up to 14 days (and even more in rare cases), today's figures represent the situation well in the past. We won't see our present situation for another week or two. That is scarey because our numbers have been doubling every 3-4 days. Also, because our volume of testing lags behind many countries, those figures may very well be understated too!

Stay safe everyone, and eyes on the sky! :)

Cheers -

[peter_4059]

Here's an interesting read...
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

The referenced online calculator is also pretty good...
http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

[Sunfish]

Yep. The immunologists in Europe my family sent me that link. Scary mathematics.

I like Peter Doherty’ s clever article that gives people a positive timeline where simple but decisive actions make a difference. He lashes the misbehaving and credits the application of controls in a public forum with some authority . Maybe it helps to keep containment.


QUOTE=peter_4059;1467107]Here's an interesting read...
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

The referenced online calculator is also pretty good...
http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html[/QUOTE]

[multiweb]

Nice :thumbsup:

[gary]

Health NSW
Age and sex breakdown of confirmed cases reported in NSW
Likely source of infection of confirmed cases reported in NSW
Testing in NSW
Confirmed cases by Local Health District (LHD)
Locally acquired cases and clusters in NSW
Across Sydney Metropolitan region

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/diseases/Pages/covid-19-latest.aspx

[Sunfish]

Very interesting thanks. Perhaps these widely available tests will help if they can be validated.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-mass-home-testing-to-be-made-available-within-days

[multiweb]

Talked to relos in France this morning. Although they've been in lockdown for two weeks already it looks like they're going to implement a new six weeks confinement from this week onwards. Despite all the isolation measures put in place there is no slowing down in the spread of infections. Medical personel are getting ill so are police forces in the street trying to keep people indoors. Doesn't look good at all.

[alan meehan]

That's not good news Marc I hope your family get through this safe .also police did random checks in nsw today on people that are in lock down and found 7 of them were not at home how stupid

[Peter Ward]

Interesting that Nigeria, population 204 million, has just 40 odd reported cases.

They also have bugger-all in the way of a health care system...and just one doctor for every 2500 citizens.

It will be interesting to see how quickly this bug burns through their population, I dare say there will be virtually no testing/distancing/quarantine measures. Their circumstances will likely be an example of the "do nothing" model.

[lazjen]

To reiterate, the number of reported cases will be based on testing results. If tests are not being done, the numbers will be low. How many tests are being done in Nigeria?

[Peter Ward]

Virtually none I'd suspect. :shrug:

Given half the population is urbanized, millions will have it there within weeks and we'll be none the wiser.

Their Median age is however quite young...just 18 years...half that of Oz. May well be, they get a herd immunity with relatively few deaths.

[billdan]

Herd immunity only works if the virus doesn't mutate.
According to the news the type of the Corona Virus in Germany and Italy has mutated from the version that started in China.

[gary]

Check the link for details :-

https://newsroom.auspost.com.au/article/australia-post-launches-free-pharmacy-home-delivery-service

[Sunfish]

Thats good. Perhaps more pharmacies will deliver under the new scheme for PBS drugs if Australia Post will pick up. Some are finding delivery too hard.

[Exfso]

That is a step in the right direction, especially for our older citizens.:thumbsup:

[gary]

11.55am 29 March 2020

[multiweb]

I also find it very suspect that China is showing virtually no new cases for the whole of March. Cracks me up also when their detailed daily reports say the majority of new infections are "imported" :lol:

Some other reports say Indonesia might have a major problem soon. That's very close to home but not appearing in the stats yet. We're all in for the long haul.

[gary]

New Zealand modelling reports publicly released :-

https://www.health.govt.nz/publication/covid-19-modelling-reports

[gary]

https://fold.it/

SMH story :-
https://www.smh.com.au/national/this-game-helps-scientists-design-covid-drugs-they-want-you-to-play-20200330-p54fby.html

[Merlin66]

The latest Australian info (ABC update) shows all the deaths in Oz (other than one...) are seniors.
SIS may continue for some while.

[Tandum]

So seniors are over 50, 55, 60, 65, 70 you get the idea.

Basically I'm ****ed.

[Exfso]

The Latest Johns Hopkins map has gone bum up it shows USA with no cases:screwy: Reckon it is a glitch or they just want to hide the tale of woe.


https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html


All fixed now...

[multiweb]

France had a jump of 8000 new cases in 24 h. That's double the amount they usually get. Not good.
We're doing remarkably well considering.

[multiweb]

https://www.csiro.au/en/News/News-releases/2020/CSIRO-begins-testing-Covid-19-vaccines

[Peter Ward]

Co-morbidity seems to be paramount.

Prince Charles (no doubt with the best Harley Street MD's on hand) showed very few symptoms.

In fact, Australia's results are remarkable... It will be interesting to see if the trend continues :thumbsup:

[Sunfish]

The CSIRO may help save the day despite being starved of funds.

There may be some genetic factors yet to be determined . So a bit of a lottery either way.

[Sunfish]

Looks very bad. I hope the rate start to improve soon.

[Peter Ward]

New case numbers in Oz continue to fall.

Looking at the cold hard numbers, two dozen deaths from COVID-19 is remarkably low. Begging the question why are Spain/Italy being hit so hard?

The Netherlands went for herd immunity with no attempt to reduce the risk
to their (younger) population. Their numbers are remarkably good...and certainly way better than Spain/Italy.

I am struggling to see how early predictions of 1.4 million cases in NSW alone will come to pass. What am I missing here? :shrug:

[multiweb]

https://blog.csiro.au/covid19-vaccine-trials/

[Peter Ward]

Aussie! Aussie! Aussie!

[lazjen]

That number was based on doing nothing.

We are not doing nothing. Isolation, social distancing, testing and contact tracing. Makes a huge difference.

As for Spain/Italy, they did not flatten the curve fast enough, which meant their medical systems got swamped, compounding the issue even more.


And, keep this in mind - until we get a vaccine, that 1.4 million cases is still a real possibility - it should however take a lot, lot longer to get to, given what we are doing.

[Exfso]

Are these people thick or what:mad2:
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-hundreds-pictured-at-manly-beach-despite-social-distancing-orders/news-story/f5eb82e2e3c64d603f3dd9cb76af4afe?ut m_source=news.com.au%20%E2%80%94%20 Australia%E2%80%99s%20

[Peter Ward]

Agreed. But doing nothing was no more an option than millions of infections becoming the reality.

The mortality rate in Oz is at the moment is a mere 1 per million (or so) of population.

While it would be imprudent to "go back to normal" just yet....at what point do you accept further, but minimal deaths, in a bid to return to "normality" ?

Moreover, while I'm looking at Australian figures and think, " yep we've got this "....

I look at the USA figures I suspect will become even more bleak....mainly due a lack of universal health care, and despite their posturing, is this a consequence of being a rich, but remarkably unegalitarian society?

P.S.
Due my round with Cancer, had my annual review scans this week. Without insurance, it would have cost about $A50k if performed in the USA.

I have private health insurance, but they put me through as a public patient. Didn't cost me a cent...
to repeat: " yep we've got this " :thumbsup:

[GrahamL]

You would have to think maybe the true infection rates overseas were hugely higher than whats reported.


Flag off areas and fine everyone who enters would do it .


Asia at a second look for me understands the higher population areas are mostly stupid regarding keeping space much like we are and needed an attitude adjustment .

[ngcles]

Hi Peter & All,



I think the thing that is just beginning to be come apparent is that the bulk figures as to who has been infected, is very dependent upon to width of the testing regime within any nation.

In first world nations, with some some degree of variance as to the median age and quality of the health service, I think we can assume the overall mortality rate is about 1% of those infected. So, the "death" figures is a bit like a proxy for the true infection rate.

So figures of about 1000 deaths probably indicates the background rate of infection is somewhere around 100,000 -- despite the fact that many countries are reporting official confirmed infection rates a small fraction of that.

Sweden is probably a good example to compare with Australia. Similar demographic and average wealth, comparable quality of health service and number of "confirmed infections". Here confirmed 5,300 infected 28 dead. Sweden 5,500 confirmed infected, 308 dead. Their death rate appears to be about twelve times higher.

The likely difference is the width of testing practices. We know from no lesser authority than Greta Thunberg, that testing in Sweden is confined to "serious cases only". Here it is very broad (we have the highest per-capita test rate in the world) and more than 1% of the entire population has been tested so far and the rate of positives is quite low (<2%).

I think there is good reason to use the actual number of deaths within a country as a proxy for the true extent of (background) infection rates. Look at the number of deaths, add a couple of zeros and that's a clearer approximate picture of how many have it there.

One of the big differences for us here was the early travel prohibition from China -- particularly Wuhan. As for the rest of your comment, yep, I think so far the actions taken here by governments have done a good job of limiting the spread. There have been instances where blunders have occurred (Ruby Princess) but I guess that just human nature and the tendency to make a bad decision from time-to-time, irrespective of political "colour".

Even for us in Ozrtaylia, this will be a marathon effort lasting months to limit infections and the death toll. The way we're living now will be the norm for at least three months and probably somewhat longer.

When it's all over, I hope we and a lot of other nations join together to send one hell of an invoice to the government of communist China, for their initial lack of action, lies and obfuscation that led directly to this being a world-wide pandemic.

Best,

L.

[multiweb]

This pandemic has created a lot of fractures between countries and even within the EU. It brought the worst in many. When you hear about medical supplies being bought and highjacked in airports on the tarmac to the highest bidder. One prominent UK economist hinted that a new balance might be achieved in future and it will be more focused on supply chain resilience rather than lower manufacturing costs. So China might lose if people vote with their feet. Remains to be seen though.

[Sunfish]

Maybe in a month we will see results of human trials. Amazing acceleration.

We really do great work here when the funding is available to scientists

All the money in the world for finance start-ups and smooth product is not going to save you now.

[Astrod00d]

I'd like to think this experience will encourage or mandate manufacturing in Australia. It would improve our economy and provide us with a degree of national security. Presently we are totally at the mercy of China.
However, I also think greed and laziness will return after things settle down.

[Exfso]

I think greed has really reared its ugly head during these times, look at the clowns hoarding stuff to the detriment of others.:mad2:

[Sunfish]

Read to the end. Scientists and medicine are logical about protecting everyone.

Nerds-in-chief: The rising heroes of the coronavirus era The new celebrities emerging across Europe as the coronavirus burns a deadly path through the continent are not actors or singers or politicians. http://www.smh.com.au/world/nerds-in-chief-the-rising-heroes-of-the-coronavirus-era-20200406-p54hlv.html?btis

[multiweb]

There are some worrying reports of people getting reinfected online with everything that it implies regarding immunity and potential vaccine effectiveness. Early days still.

[Peter Ward]

I know I'm beginning to sound like a broken down record here, but the 2017
flu season (https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/097F15A91C05FBE7CA2581E20017F09E/$File/2017-season-summary-22112017.pdf) has to date been far worse for the Australian population.

Rough numbers, a quarter of a million infected, plus 740 deaths.
This was not the subject of constant media reporting nor was there a total wrecking of the economy.

The epi-curve of COVID-19 looks to have peaked with 6100 infected, about half recovered thus far and 50 odd deaths. Say those numbers double, still not a patch on the 2017 flu season.

There is no doubt these remarkably low figures were due to quarantine and distancing measures....but might be time to ease up he sloppy/asinine legislation that has seen even learner drivers fined for going for a drive and clearly not presenting any further infection risk to others by doing so. Similarly, I fail to see the infection risk posed by packing up the Esky, re-locating to a second rural/seaside home you may own, to
get away from urban viral-epicentres.

[gregbradley]

What does epi-cure mean?

Greg.

[FlashDrive]

I used to spin the toilet like I was on Wheel of Fortune.. !!
Now, I turn it like I'm cracking a Safe...!!

Still haven't decided where to go for Easter...The Living Room of The Bedroom

This morning I saw my Neighbor talking to her cat.
It was obvious she thought her Cat could understand her.....I came into my house ...told the dog...and we laughed a lot.

My body has absorbed so much soap and disinfectant lately that when I pee it cleans the Toilet.

I'm so excited, it's time to take out the garbage ... What should I wear.

Classified AD reads ....Single Man with Toilet Paper seeks Woman with hand sanitizer for good clean fun ...!!

Homeschooling Day 5 ....One of these little monsters called in a Bomb Threat , and 2 were suspended for fighting.

Col. :D

[LewisM]

It’s all conveniently resetting the balance of trade power and global economy equalisation and reset. Wait and watch.

Besides Peter’s pointing out of the 2017 flu stats, more people died in 2019 in the US alone from flu than total globally from COVID19 so far...yet this is conveniently ignored.

Something stinks about this whole thing...and it’s all to certain advantage. I’ve never been a conspiracy theory believer, but this one has waaaaay too many holes, inconsistencies and coincidences in it. Perhaps not the virus itself (aka bioweapon) but the exploits, advantages and possibilities it created. It remains amazing how certain circles in the US call it the CCP virus (Communist Chinese Party virus) - perhaps an indication of deflection...

[Zuts]

In Italy over 100 doctors, who knows how many other health workers have died of COVID-19. During a 'regular' flu season the number would probably be close to zero. Imagine the outcry if 100 firefighters died last christmas...

The only reason we don't have so many cases in Oz is because we are social distancing. In Italy they have a complete lockdown, far stricter than here and people are still dying in the thousands every day; I agree that people are being fined for ridiculous things but I think at the moment we just have to live with the restrictions.

As far as travelling to a holiday home, some rural hospitals may have only one or two ventilators, so if everyone decided to visit how are these hospitals supposed to provide support to their local residents?

[FlashDrive]

I agree...I told my Wife something is not right here...!!

A ' ' Hidden ' Agenda behind all of this are my thoughts.

Somethings going on ..!!

Just saying ...!!

Col...

[highlander2287]

Not to belittle the deaths that have occurred because of this virus but we have had far more deaths in NSW this year due to car accidents than this virus has taken in Australia but that is never mentioned. We are still doing ok so far, compared to many other countries.

[Peter Ward]

Means auto correct is a PIA...:lol:

"epi-curve"

[lazjen]

I'm not sure where to start - there's a few messages in this thread that are simply amazing in that they've been written in the first place. If you want to talk conspiracy theories, go to your lunatics on facebook, we don't need it here.

And the persistent comparisons to other illnesses or types of deaths. Do some research just to show how wrong you've got it. Stop spouting stupid nonsense please.

A quick search for US data, gives this: "For 2016 specifically, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) data shows 37,461 people were killed in 34,436 motor vehicle crashes, an average of 102 per day." <-- Currently, the US is at nearly 2000 per day deaths due to covid-19 (total at time of writing 18K+). They will probably go well past this figure by the end of the month.

Just because we were quicker to react and put in place measures to reduce the number of deaths means we might be lucky to get under our vehicle deaths for the year. USA is an example where they won't - and this should be an alarm bell for your damn brain to realise why we are in lockdown.

And as for the flu numbers. I can't believe the comparison is still being made. Totally irrational. I wonder if these people would have been similar to those who whinged about Y2K and nothing happening? Nothing happened because we intervened and stopped it from happening, but some people are so blind they can't see that.

As for the measures in place for the "social distancing", isolation, etc - I think it's gone a bit too far, but most of that has been driven by stupid people trying to either bend the rules or ignore them thinking they know better - so we get these stupid situations where some guy trying to wash his car is hassled. Individual person might be smart, but in general people are dumb.

[Shiraz]

+1

[gregbradley]

Oh, thanks. When I looked it up the only definition was a person who really likes fine food and drink.

Hehehe.

Greg

[Shiraz]

Re Marc's original intention of reliable data sources, the CDC lists over 400 studies into drugs etc for treating covid19. All the way from aspirin to the exotics - lots going on and planned, so maybe something will bear fruit sooner rather than later.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=COVID-19

[Outcast]

+1

Couldn't have put this better myself..... thanks Lazjen... I'd have probably sworn a bit had I wrote it...

[Peter Ward]

Well, as a mature adult I think that call should be mine to make.
Particularly after 14 days of isolation and zero infection.
The drive, say to Bateman's Bay, is hardly likely to infect me.

But to be fair, If I show any respiratory aliments on arrival, it would be fair enough for local medial centres to say "bugger off" and for preferential support to be given to locals.

The extreme risk aversion of Australia I frankly find weird.

The recent banning by "authorities" of coastal walks being rather bizarre.

The chances of one collecting this bug from a passing jogger are, while not zero, extremely low.

Also, my driving to a remote site to do some astro-photography, meet no-one, and drive home again
is perversely illegal.....as in my initial post, due some really lazy legislation.

We'll have to wear hard-hats soon due rocks falling from space :shrug:

P.S.
My comments relate to the Australian spread of COVID-19.
Clearly we are not in the same boat as the USA/Spain/Italy/UK

[GrahamL]

Cippolas fourth law

Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals.


Maybe think a little these measures are more about we than me Peter ,, the older people among us who will benefit the most from the wider pain we all are living with do need all the help we can give them .

[Outcast]

And the reason we are in the fortunate state we are in Peter is because of the 'risk aversion' that you proclaim to be weird!!

Also, in too many instances people, particularly young people are asymptomatic so, can unwittingly transmit the disease to others who DIE...

How would you feel if someone you love contracts the disease from someone who was asymptomatic & decided for themselves that they were no risk to anyone??

Whilst I don't disagree that some of the regulations seem a little draconian & somewhat vague, leaving interpretation on whether or not you should recieve a fine solely in the hands of the police officer that pulls you over sadly, some peoples behaviour has clearly illustrated the need for such sweeping restrictions.

Sure, you might just be responsible & do all the right things... trouble is there are still too many who aren't...

The very reason we are not experiencing the infection & mortality rates of Italy, Spain, UK & US are because of the actions we took... but, hey, sure.. let's just have at & let the people decide what they will & won't do... seemed to be work well in those countries eh?

I'm so sorry that your personal rights & freedoms have been impacted by the overwhelming need to keep others in the community safe, I mean, how dare they!!

[Peter Ward]

Don't misquote me. "extreme" risk aversion is what I find odd.



I'd be in that "risk" group. That said, almost everyone who has died of this this in Oz ...just two per million of population ...has a co-morbidity.

You can hide in a cave, but I see no unreasonable risk in taking a coastal walk, drive though a national park, looking through a 'scope in the middle of no-where, etc.

These harmless activities, but are now illegal for no good reason.



Guess that's where we will have to disagree. "some people" is not "all people" .

This is lazy draconian legislation. Sure, it helped the reduce case numbers in Oz remarkably low levels, but the reasonableness of many measures needs reviewing.

[Outcast]

So you find extreme aversion to people dying in great numbers odd... interesting thought process I must say...

Unfortunately Peter, it is because of the actions of some, not all that these measures have been deemed necessary... I agree, many people will do the right thing & in fact are but, too many just don't give a sh..., apparently... same reasons we have many other laws... (which for the record I don't necessarily agree with either) but, they exist for those that don't do the right thing but, the intricasies of applying them to some & not others is pretty much impossible, especially in the situation we find ourselves in...

I also do agree that the current restrictions are somewhat vague & too open to intepretation by both the population & law enforcement. It was clearly necessary to put something quite broad in place & in a hurry but, it is time they better define what is or isn't permitted rather than leaving it open to the whim of whatever police officer decides to pull you over....

Sadly Peter, there aren't enough 'mature adults' in our population to make sensible decisions; I'm not disputing whether you would or wouldn't make the right decisions but, there has been & still is clear evidence that some folk just don't care... so, faced with the issue of too many people making dumb & careless decisions how exactly do you think they should police it?

Do we issue the 'mature adults' with a gold star so, they can do things that others may not?

Until such time as 'Everyone' takes this thing seriously & does the right thing, the laws & restrictions that have been introduced will remain however, a necessary evil...

[Sunfish]

According to Peter Doherty in today’s paper , and after all, he should know better than any self proclaimed experts, measures are working however:

”Hotspots, yet undetected, could emerge, and need careful containment. "I don't know if you can put a ring of steel around Toorak and prevent people leaving," he quips about the disease vectors otherwise known as the Aspen ski set.”

[Outcast]

But, surely Ray, as 'mature adults' those in the 'Aspen Ski Set' should be able to decide for themselves what they can & can't do....

Please use sarcasm font.... I just couldn't help myself... 'some' folk still seem to think this is non-event... :shrug::confused2::question:

[doppler]

I don't know what its like down south but here in Mackay all the shops and businesses that weren't forced to shut are trading as normal. Bunnings, the supermarket, Harvey Normans all had full carparks today and plenty of traffic on the road as well. Luckily all the witches hats, security tape and crosses taped to the ground are keeping the crowds socially distanced. At least with all the big crowds at the shops it was pretty quiet at the beach, "walking the dog".
Rick

[Peter Ward]

First up, we are all going to die.

No point in getting hysterical about this.
It comes with your birthright.
I'd also say: " Do not go gentle into that good night..." I digress.

The leading causes of death in Australia:
Ischaemic heart diseases (about 20,000 per annum)
Dementia, including Alzheimer disease
Cerebrovascular diseases
Malignant neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung
Chronic lower respiratory diseases
Malignant neoplasm of colon, sigmoid, rectum and anus
Diabetes
Malignant neoplasms of lymphoid, haematopoietic and related tissue
Diseases of the urinary system
Malignant neoplasm of prostate
Heart failure and complications and ill-defined heart disease
Influenza and pneumonia (source ABS)

I note the last on the list has killed about 3200 of us last year.
None of the above have caused a massive and costly intervention by the state.

So far COVID-19... a virus with no regard for co-morbidity... has killed 55 individuals with some serious pre-existing health conditions.
But as I write, in Australia, just slipping, tripping or tumbling has been more hazardous, killing 715 people last year.

Hence my stance is these numbers require some perspective and review.

Overseas the stats are far more sobering: the Australian State was right to be cautious.

For the large part, the sheer lack of COVID19 cases (compared to everything else) and deaths in Australia has been due to extensive quarantine restrictions.

Bravo Scomo!

But we are also in the antipodes, acted early, do what we are told (I ponder the effect of starting as a penal colony ), have universal healthcare and a reasonably egalitarian social structure....

Of the 6000 Australians who have caught this bug (to date) , 3000 have already recovered (about 98% will) , and could go back into society and economy, work and contribute with negligible fear of re-infection.
A credit-card sized piece of plastic might certify that antibody status, but a letter from your GP would work too......sadly, our "leaders" are not doing much "leading" in that department.
.
To cut to the chase: apart from the freedom of movement/association restrictions (some sensible, some not) the ruination of many workers, their families, their livelihoods, homes, business institutions and corporations for the sake of "you might get sick, and very few of you might die " due to (shock-horror) cause A, when in all likelihood (boring) cause B will actually kill, you really needs to be looked at.

I hope the above clarifies my position.

[Outcast]

hysteria
/hɪˈstɪərɪə/
noun
1. exaggerated or uncontrollable emotion or excitement.

No hysteria on my part Peter... I just don't fancy losing good friends, my mother-in-law simply to keep everyones freedoms to do as they please, as they please... when some relatively short term restrictions can likely prevent it...

I seriously think you need to stop focussing on how things are going in Australia & take a wider look at the world we are part of mate... you have sought to downplay the significance of this event from the get go... you cite Australian figures in isolation to support your view.

Have a look at the countries that aren't doing so well... some of them have pretty good health care too but, all the same, they are struggling to get on top of it & as a result, have far stricter lockdowns in place than we do...

Sure, everyone dies... we are dying from the day we are born... no need to hasten it though don't you think?

Your statement about co-morbidity is actually not completely true; again... look outside Australia please, whilst not in great numbers, there are people dying, including young people with no underlying health conditions...

There is evidence emerging in South Korea that reinfections may be occuring & if true, this does not bode well for herd immunity or possibly even for an effective vaccine...

The point Peter is, plenty is known about all the 'killers' you've listed & there is significant ongoing scientific research aimed at finding cures.

Conversely, very little is known about Covid 19.. somehow I don't think the world or this country is particularly keen on just letting it run it's course & seeing what happens because, you know... everyone dies eventually & there are other things out there that can kill you after all....

I get it Peter, your bored, you're frustrated & I can even see your point on some of the restrictions not making sense but, from where I sit, you appear to advocate that this is nothing & we should just get on with business as usual because Australia is doing really well.... sorry mate, it doesn't work that way...

Sorry but, as someone else said earlier... it's a bit like all the Y2K naysayers who think nothing happened... yeah, nothing happened because things were done to make sure nothing bad happened... dunno about you but, can't say I'm real keen to 'see what happens' if we do nothing about the Covid 19 spread...

Sure, people will argue in the future that it was nothing (in Australia) & we didn't need all those heavy handed restrictions... shame the only way we can find out is to lift them & see what happens...

Game to try that response are you?

[h0ughy]

nice discussion fellas - time to settle and chant