Sydney’s Continuing Smoke Haze

[Startrek]

We’ve had about 5 weeks of smoke haze across the greater Sydney basin and it doesn’t look like clearing for a while yet
There’s a huge out of control bushfire west of Sydney and a couple in the Mountains and Hawkesbury areas ( you can see them on the satellite stream)
I put the bins out last night and couldn’t stop coughing it was that bad in my area
While the westerly winds prevail , the Sydney basin will fill up with smoke and this week is no different
Thankfully no reports of loss of life or property with these current fires
I cannot remember the last time we had such a long spell of continuous smoke haze
Hopefully we get some good solid rain soon.

[Wavytone]

Had to happen sooner or later IMHO when you look at how long it has been since most of it was last burnt. Especially the Jamison valley water catchment. If you consider doing fuel reduction burns of say 5% of the state every year, on the basis that each area is burnt roughy once every 20 years, we're falling way short of that - the greenies have effectively locked up the national parks and forested areas and stopped all serious efforts at hazard reduction.

Now you see the result.

[Retrograde]

Those mysterious omnipotent greenies. :lol:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/12/is-there-really-a-green-conspiracy-to-stop-bushfire-hazard-reduction

Former NSW fire and rescue commissioner, Greg Mullins:

[N1]

https://www.smh.com.au/national/apocalypse-now-bushfire-threat-prediction-was-right-and-it-is-not-going-away-20191115-p53az6.html

[casstony]

Down here in the alternate universe I can't remember the last time we had such a long spell of cloudy, wet weather. The paddocks still haven't gone brown since winter.

There must be some astronomy happening somewhere :)

[AstralTraveller]

The smoke hazy is more intermittent down here, depending on the wind. When things were really bad a few weeks ago there were times when we had NE winds that I couldn't see the escarpment from 1.5km away. I developed bad hay-fever symptoms. However, once the next front moved through things were back to normal.
On Sunday we had soot dropping in the yard and the moon was deep eclipse-red that night. Yesterday it cleared and by last night I could see both Magellanic clouds with a 25% moon in the sky. Today is fine and clear but the haze is predicted to return tomorrow.

[Allan_L]

Hmm!
I've seen about 5 stars intermittently in the last 5 weeks. Only low in the east.
:sadeyes:

[multiweb]

Can't comment on hazard reduction. I'm not a firie on the ground or a specialist in that area. I'd say though that the morons who light fires get away with too little too often. There's no real deterrent. And the bloody problem is not the odd lightning strike or natural causes. It's people doing stupid sh|t.

[CeratodusDuck]

I'm more concerned about loss of life, property, animals and exhausted firies than smoke haze. Water bombers been going all day here.

Astronomy is the last thing on my mind...

[multiweb]

This is corner of cowpasture road and M7 right now.

[Nikolas]

We have had nothing but cloud down South

[AndyG]

For me (or anyone) to elaborate would break the TOS. Needless to say, I agree.

[pgc hunter]

And sensationally below average temps.

[multiweb]

Been checking the fire maps for a month now and see the progression. Something I am wondering. I realise there are a finite number of funding, fire fighters, trucks, heli, planes, etc... and also that some areas just have no access by ground. Having said that some of the fires start really small then get bigger then bloody huge and start other fires, etc... Wouldn't it make sense to hammer the small ones before they get over a certain size? Obvioulsy when the sh|t has hit the fan and it's too late and everything is burning you save houses and people, but at the very beginning. When they're only really small spot fires. Or am I missing something?

[Wavytone]

As I said before - fires will do what should have been done previously, ie get rid of the gumtrees.

[Startrek]

We know that the forest floor fuel loads are increasing year by year which increases the risk exponentially, and we know a small scrub fire or spot fire can turn into a 10km raging fire front in a matter of hours if a dry strong westerly wind whips up
My question is, how do these small spot fires start in the first place when they are located mostly in remote state forests with limited or no road access
Surely lightning is not the only cause ?

Any thoughts on that ?

[Camelopardalis]

Theoretically, up here :lol: but it's unusually dry and hot...not the usual humid and tumultuous sub-tropics. Everything is so dry. It's normally lush and green at this time of year (from the spring rain storms).

I say "theoretically" as I'm not convinced the seeing has been any good, and BrisVegas has sporadically had some smoke blow in...

[FlashDrive]

I feel for you folks down there, not only because of the fires ...it must be ' choking ' for some ...terrible.

Because of my heart condition , I have chronic fatigue and have a breathing issue ...some days aren't too bad,...but others I just have to rest all day.

If I lived down there, no doubt I would be at A&E in no time.

Stay Safe

Col

[AstralTraveller]

Australian used to be covered in rainforest. Go back far enough and the place was dominated by Glossopteris and the ancestors of the Wollumi pine. Even after the rise of flowering plants it was all thick lush vegetation. Early Acacias (wattles) included rainforest giants. Then, as the continent drifted north two things happened. First the opening of the Southern Ocean and the establishment of the circum-antarctic current cooled and dried the global climate. Second, Australia moved under the descending side of the Hadley circulation.

The combined effect was to dry Australia, leading to an increased fire regime. Under these conditions a new genus, Eucalyptus, became successful in the remaining woodlands because it can tolerate fires better than competing species. Some parts of the continent became too dry even for Eu. and they are now dominated by a drought-tolerant Acacia (mulga) or Triodia grass (spinifex).

The point is that the climate lead to the fires and they lead to the Eucalypts. Replacing the Eucs would simply lead to forests that can't recover after a fire. I also wonder where the understory vegetation fits in your plan. Also, what about native animals and birds? I haven't seen many nesting hollows in Pinus radiata.

[codemonkey]

The seeing has been garbage up near Kilcoy, and there's been a fair bit of smoke and dust around... all up not a good year for imaging conditions.

[multiweb]

That big one in the Central coast and Hawkesbury has flared up this arvo and it's a massive worry. The one around green wattle creek is no better. That's the one that's affecting Sydney basin mostly. It's a shocker out there today.

[Wavytone]

David the native animals won’t survive, either way.

[casstony]

Wavy, have you been talking with Marvin again?

[GrahamL]

Mostly when you guys down south are having good viewing tony the seasons have changed and we have rain and crappy weather up north hasnt happened yet.


Smoke haze and the terrible loss so many have had to wear seems ongoing , 70 mm of rain near the coast and some inland areas last week but the smoke is likely into its third month .

[Wavytone]

Fore those interested here's the fire locations from the sentinel satellite overlaid on the map, updates ~ 2h cycle.

https://sentinel.ga.gov.au/#/

What's interesting:

- the fire front from Newnes stretching east to Colo is slowly marching south, moving slowly upwind. Plenty of fuel, and in that country (stone pagodas and canyons) there is no way to stop it. Mt Wilson can be defended successfully, that has been done before.

- the fire front that has developed across the south of the national park stretches from east of the road to Jenolan to Camden and has already jumped a suburban road into grasslands. This fire front is being driven north-east by the prevailing wind.

Both these fire fronts are uncontrolled, there is no hope of stopping these. The implication is they will eventually meet in the middle - roughly the Blue Mountains townships along the Great Western Highway or Bells Line of Rd.

Now zoom in on Katoomba, the fire spots south of Mt Solitary are interesting. Makes me think the RFS is burning this to create a fire break to protect the residents along the Great Western Highway. But they'll have to burn everything eastwards across to Glenbrook.

If either fires enter the Grose Valley (north) or the Megalong/Jamison valleys (southside) its basically all over for the Blue Mountains - those areas haven't had a fire in 60+ years and the fuel load on the ground will produce catastrophic fires. It will all burn to Christmas, is my guess. And we'll be drinking contaminated water.

[casstony]

At least with late summer fires there are winter rains to look forward to. The current situation looks really miserable.

The smoke from our bad fires last summer didn't disappear until we had significant rain because fuel keeps smouldering.

[el_draco]

As I said to my wife this morning..., "It'll take a big ugly city like Sydney to get an uncontrollable "megablaze" through some suburbs with huge casualties and 10,000+ buildings burned to the ground before ignorant people decide to study a bit of Ecology and stop talking out their bums. :screwy:

Before you spout crap about how "un-australian" I am, and this is just more "greenie" speak, I should add:

1/ My brother is a fiery and he's trying to control the "megablaze" outside a big ugly city in N.S.W. at the moment; putting his life on the line to protect ignoramuses who deny Scientific reality.

2/ I've fought enough bush fires to know the real cause isn't inner city "greenies" as the ruling "richard craniums" and their drones B.S. on about and..

3/ ... I teach Ecology, so I guess I know a little bit more about whats going on than the average drone that seems to increasingly dominate the population of this country.

Wake up!!! Mega fires are the NEW NORMAL and you AIN'T SEEN NOTHING YET.:shrug:

...and if the Mods don't like this post, perhaps they should delete your drivel as well. :hi:

[andyc]

Yeah, the severity of this season is pretty much nothing to do with hazard reduction (that's a dangerous political distraction). We've had the hottest and driest preceding conditions on record in NSW (we know the physics of why that is the case), coupled with fire-friendly weather patterns during the first part of this fire season (which has a side-effect of below-average conditions in VIC and grumpy slightly chilly Victorians). But I'd rather have Victoria's weather than the thick smoke and burnt leaves falling out the sky like we had last week.

The first attached image is by scientist Robert Rohde, and neatly highlights our heating and drying NSW climate over the decades (animation here (https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1199612662449094657?s=19)), and where some bad fire seasons sit. 2019 is pretty extreme, but in terms of heat, will be pretty normal in a couple of decades. The second compares fuel moisture this year to some extreme fire years.

[AstralTraveller]

In this regard it's worth mentioning that there is a lot of research being done into bushfires. At Uni of Wollongong we have had the Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires (CERMB) for many years (headed by Prof Ross Bradstock, who is cited in the second diagram above). The NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub is hosted by CERMB. Last week the Australian Research Council announced the recipients of this years Discovery Grants and bushfire research is part of several grants that I have seen.


University of Tasmania
Professor David Bowman (DP200102395)
Does fire control vegetation in the Tasmanian World Heritage Area?
Aims: This project aims to discriminate between competing explanations for vegetation patterns in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area: (a) fire (the legacy of Aboriginal burning), or (b) soil. We will do this through a novel, transdisciplinary research program. Significance: The project expects to create new knowledge essential for achieving evidence-based fire management, as well as to advance a globally important ecological theory. Outcomes: Expected outcomes include significantly strengthened fire science and fire management capacity in Tasmania. Benefit: Benefits should include the protection of globally significant cultural, biological and landscape values that sustain the vibrant Tasmanian tourist economy. Funding: $321,000.00


The University of New South Wales
Professor Andrew Baker; Dr Pauline Treble (DP200100203)
Reconstructing Australia’s fire history from cave stalagmites.
Fire represents a major natural hazard, and its impact on Australian communities and ecosystems is increasing. Representing a world first, this project aims to calibrate the paleofire signal from stalagmites in shallow caves, and to construct annually resolved stalagmite records of paleofire frequency and intensity for the last millennia. The project aims to use stalagmites from south west Australia to determine the relationship between fire and climate and assess the robustness of stalagmite hydroclimate proxies in fire-prone regions. This project expects to establish a new research field for speleothem science, enhancing capacity for the Australian Quaternary and speleothem research communities, as well as benefits to land managers. Funding: $472,000.00


University of Wollongong
Associate Professor Anthony Dosseto; Associate Professor Scott Mooney; Professor Ross Bradstock; Dr Damien Lemarchand; Dr Nathalie Vigier (DP200101123)
Shaping a sunburnt country: fire, climate and the Australian landscape.
Fire shapes Australia’s landscape, biodiversity and resources. This project aims to quantify the recent history of fire intensity and severity using several novel proxies in the fire-prone landscapes of south-eastern Australia. Calibration of these new proxies to recent wildfires will be used for a better characterisation of fire regimes. This research will be applied to sedimentary archives to investigate how fire regimes have evolved over the past 100 years. The outcomes will inform debates about the relationship between climatic variability and fire severity, and this will contribute to increase the preparedness of natural resource management to potential future climate and land-use scenarios. Funding: $379,000.00

[alan meehan]

I was in the RFS for 15yrs in old bar ive seen bushfires start in all types of conditions ,lightning being one seen that personally with a tree exploding 50ft from me ,glass left in the bush on a hot day and the right sun on it up she goes ,burnt out stolen or dumped cars that some idiot sets on fire we see heaps of these on the side of the expressway up hear in Newcastle ,illegal backburning ,backyard bbqs ,just a car driving down a dirt track with a hot exhaust ,cigarette butts when a small fire starts in these hot dry conditions it takes 5 mim to start spreading a fire truck is called depending
on where it has to come from gets there and you have a real fire on your hands real fast ,fires can start weeks after wards if not put out right tree roots underground burn for ages and can surface anywhere ,iam too old to go fight a fire nowdays it takes it out of you you ,the government is always short cutting equipment for the rfs you want to blam anyone they do not help people suffer ,bless the guys that do a unbelievable job fighting these monster fires

[Oddity]

Made this comment elsewhere but it's probably more applicable here

With regards to inability to observe, looking at the forecast, I'm wondering if this Thursday could be a rare possibility for observing in Sydney for the first time in a long time (and possibly the last time for a long time)? Though there will be residual heat from earlier in the day, if we're lucky and the forecast holds up then the wind looks to change to SSE which could knock a little bit of the smoke and heat away but still remain mostly clear of cloud (previous cool changes that blew some of the smoke away have also brought cloud with it... this one might not).

Moonrise isn't until 1:30am so that's OK too.

I hold out a lot less hope for Saturday as if the forecast holds up the wind will be WSW blowing smoke straight in, followed by a rather thick and cloudy cool change.

[Wavytone]

Shock... it's looking passable here. And it's not stinking hot, nor a howling gale.

Thursday will be stinking hot which will probably stoke the fires again, followed by a gusty change in the evening, ie windy and cloudy; seeing will be terrible as a result.

[Startrek]

Arrived down at my weekender near Ulladulla this arvo for a few days to do some odd jobs and conditions look good at the moment , very light northeaster , some scattered high cloud and more importantly no smoke
It’s been a year since I imaged M42 so here hoping I might be lucky tonight , moon doesn’t break the horizon until just after midnight
Just finished setting up the 8” f5 now ( takes me 2.5 hours )
Anyone else imaging or observing tonight in NSW ??

[Oddity]

I would not write it off; the forecast still looks promising. Look much more closely; there is no cloud forecast for Thursday evening. The change will be 24km/h w/ 44km gusts, not great but not the worst, and the main thing is it will be SSE so not from the smoke.

Sure seeing's not gonna be great but in this month when is it!? I'm not expecting to split stars (which I don't have the slightest interest in doing) or view planets. Beggars can't be choosers and DSOs should do just fine.

Tonight on the other hand is rubbish where I am - lots of high cloud and some smoke. And every other day forecast for the foreseeable future has no chance; I still think there's a chance Thursday may be the best chance in a while - if you can put up with heat haze and a little wind.

[Wavytone]

Sky is still very very bright here. Managed to barely glimpse Comet BlanPain below Neptune using my 70mm refractor at 50X. Packed it in soon after.

SSE spells cloud where I am (too close to the coast). Maybe OK if you're inland.

[mental4astro]

With this break in the smoke haze here in Sydney tonight I managed to pin my first asteroid, Vesta! :D Easy to spot the mag 7 asteroid from my backyard in a 100mm achro, and star hopping. I've only been involved in astro for some 36 years, and I am still experiencing firsts! :)

Thank goodness for small mercies... Haven't done anything with my scopes other than a bit of maintenance for a couple of months now.

Alex.

[AstralTraveller]

Andrew, I admire your enthusiasm. At this time of year this astronomer tends to hibernate; I couldn't take the late nights and then go to work. However, don't expect the sea breeze to clear the smoke. There is masses smoke sitting off-shore and the first air to come with the change will have come from down this way, where the visibility is about 1-1.5km.

[skysurfer]

Looks like long term forecast says some rain will come.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/total/75/seasonal/0


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary/


The Indian Ocean Dipole is very early this summer.



But, obviously, this is just a would-be scenario.

[sharpiel]

The sun today from central coast NSW at 16:00

[sharpiel]

From my phone camera

[sharpiel]

The sun is in this pic...from our place

[gaseous]

That's insane Les!

[CeratodusDuck]

I remarked to someone the other day you can ALMOST do solar observation naked eye without a filter other than the smoke.

Of course, DON'T do it!

[sharpiel]

There is no problem with naked eyes on the sun here atm. The smoke haze is so thick I can look directly at the sun without glare.

[sharpiel]

The view from my kitchen. Our world has turned hues of gold and sepia.

[DarkArts]

Canberra has been copping at well. It's been as thick as fog.

The air quality index today is seven (7) times the hazardous level (over 1400 today) and the worst on record - twice as bad as the 2003 bush fires.

[sharpiel]

Latest RFS App seems to indicate Lithgow is currently under great threat with homes destroyed and fatalities. Looks bad for residents rights now.

[skysurfer]

Maybe the smokiest midsummer day ever.


Probably the NYE fireworks on the Harbor Bridge will be canceled I guess. There is already too much smoke.

[sharpiel]

Tbh those fireworks used to upset all the local wildlife anyway.

[skysurfer]

Wildlife in the midst of a city ? Domestic cats ?

[Wavytone]

Skysurfer Sydney is not like London.

It has several significant national parks around the harbour and the native wildlife includes (far from an exhaustive list):

Water dragons (big lizard > 1 metre, can be hand fed, fond of raw sausages), blue-tongue lizards are common in the parks, as well as assorted snakes (red-bellies blacks, browns and tiger);

There’s a fairy penguin colony in Athol Bay and Bradley’s Head - for many events these are also prime viewing locations and it’s amazing to see their little heads bobbing in waves as the Sydney-Hobart yacht race gets under way;

Possums are common, wombats, wallabies (yes, in Sydney), koalas in the north, quolls, the marsupials Sydney doesn’t have are big kangaroos, platypus and Tasmanian Devils (thankfully).

Flying foxes flap around all night feeding on the native Port Jackson fig trees and are terrified by the fireworks;

Assorted birds - the larger ones include brush turkeys (quite common), sea eagles (in the parks near water), kites, parrots, magpies, currawongs, and several large squadrons of pelicans live on the harbour;

And for what it’s worth, rabbits and foxes.

I live in the north of Sydney and each morning we have a dawn chorus of birds - no need for an alarm clock ... in the late afternoon the odd wallaby can be spotted grazing our front lawn, I regularly chase the brush turkeys out of our back garden and the local bunnies are breeding like, well, you know... and there are at least 2-3 foxes that can be spotted around midnight when all is quiet. Possums are a constant problem (raiding the veggie garden) as well as the flying foxes ...

There’s probably more wildlife here in the north shore than you’ll see in the countryside due to the gardens that provide food, water and shelter for them.

[skysurfer]

Wavytone, indeed, you are right.
I stayed in Kirrawee, 20km south of CBD in 2018 and saw lots of wildlife, e.g. a possum and very nice birds like lorrikeet, kookaburras, etc.


But I thought in the direct neighborhood of the Harbor Bridge where the fireworks normally happen (not this year ?).

[Rainmaker]

Has anyone heard from Steve (Unipol) or Ivan (GusK) hopefully they and their families are safe up there in Blackheath/Medlow Bath...

Smoke here in Canberra has eased today, we are lucky here. I was at Tahmoor/Buxton when the fire tore through there and turned day into night.
Very sad to see the destruction.

Hopefully those fighting these horrendous fires (Ian Fry et al) get some relief soon.

[casstony]

The fireworks have gone so far over the top that they're verging on poor taste imo, even before the fires. A smaller, more elegant or inventive display would be preferable.

[Rainmaker]

I agree, it would indeed be very poor taste to spend a million dollars on fireworks when that money would help out so many families who have lost everything just before Christmas......

given the weather conditions perhaps it will be a Total Fire Ban anyway

[DarkArts]

I'm kinda hoping it is.

I've just spent the afternoon researching air purifiers on account of the last couple of days when I've been coughing inside the house. Unfortunately, the gas heater flue can't be sealed easily and smoke eventually makes its way inside.

But can anyone figure out how big the air purifier would have to be to put upwind of my 'scope? :eyepop:

[sharpiel]

Have tried to upload these images several times tonight and the orientation goes all topsy turvy. Have never understood why an image upright on my iPhone wants to rotate 90 degrees here when the image next to it doesn't. Anyway I drove to my childhood home today and these are the scenes I was met with North of Sydney on the Pacific Highway and the Bucketts Way near Tinonee.

[sharpiel]

Even in adversary people still getting on with their lives.

Pulled over on the Pacific Motorway...

[sharpiel]

And more. I'm not on a bush track here. This is a major arterial between towns.

[sharpiel]

Tinonee

[sharpiel]

And again

[sharpiel]

What to say? The most striking thing, other than the obvious black and burned, is the predominance of orange where all the gum leaves have died and fallen to the ground as an orange carpet highlight to the blackness.

Quite striking to see in person.

The words of Peter Gabriel in his song Don't Give Up came to mind as I came upon the scenes which stretched kilometre after kilometer:

Drove the night toward my home
The place that I was born, on the lakeside
As daylight broke, I saw the earth
The trees had burned down to the ground

[Outcast]

:eyepop:

[Wilso]

“Has anyone heard from Steve (Unipol) or Ivan (GusK) hopefully they and their families are safe up there in Blackheath/Medlow Bath... “

I heard from Steve on Friday, he and his wife had their car packed ready to go at a moments notice. He said there were a couple of safe zones nearby and his neighbours either side of him were staying to put out spot fires.
Hopefully they’re doing alright.
I did message him the other day but I’m sure he’s got his hands full, so I wasn’t expecting a reply too soon.

[Wavytone]

Blackheath is encircled on 3 sides but I think its mostly back-burning.

Further east there is a fire heading straight up the valley towards Mt Bowen Observatory. Wonder if they've saved the optics...

[Rainmaker]

Thanks, I got a message from Ivan, they're ok at the moment .

[The Mekon]

The weather has slightly improved in the Southern Highlands over the past couple of days. RFS conducting burns around Hilltop so still very smokey. I rode out to Robertson this afternoon and the sky was a bit clearer towards the coast. Useless conditions for astronomy. I have not had my telescope out for 10 weeks now. Perhaps I will have to take up another interest and join my wife watching TV? I like being with my wife, but watching TV? no thanks, I am doing a jig-saw puzzle instead.