How does the world look after 50 years (2070) ?

[skysurfer]

The latest years there is lot of bad news about oceans overloaded with plastic waste, global warming, etc.

Warning: A Pessimistic view.

And to my opinion, unfortunately there are no signs of improvement. The Paris agreement on global warming, laws against deforestration slow down the deterioration of the environment a little.
Plastic packaging is still mass produced and despite government efforts (the EU plans to ban disposable plastics by 2030 which is way too late while the US is doing nothing), tropical forests in Brasil or Congo are shrinking faster than ever, a German and British research shows that insects numbers are shrunk by 1/3 since the 1970, while these are essential for all life on Earth.

When this continues and we (mostly the big corporations) have a mantra growth, growth, growth in this pace I guess the de-terraformed world in 2070 will look like:

* Less people in the world than now as many are died by disasters with extreme weather, wars on depleting water and other resources. And India, China and Africa getting more prosperous are exacerbating the running out resources.
* The Big Five in Africa are all extinct
* Middle East (e.g. Dubai) and India are unlivable hot in summer with temperatures of 50-60 C
* W Europe is unlivable cold with blizzards and strong cold snaps in winter due to the Gulfstream shutdown which is a result of global warming while S Europe and SW USA are deserts with almost no rainfall and extreme hot in summer. Maybe NSW and VIC are much drier than now.
* The US south east coast and Queensland have several heavy floodings and rainfall every year, much more than in the 2020s.
* Super thunderstorms are getting common.
* Australia has a population of over 100-200 or maybe 500 million of which 50 million live in greater Sydney, mostly refugees, even from W Europe because it is a 'safe haven' compared to the overpopulated and ecological disaster infested northern hemisphere. The same may apply to Argentina and Chile.
* Brasil, Indonesia and Africa's rain forests are almost all slashed and burned. Queensland has the only primeval tropical rainforests (except from a few islands in Indian and Pacific Ocean) in the world.
* Light pollution is so bad that only Australia (excepy NSW/VIC/QLD), south of S America, Antarctica and the oceans can see the Milky Way
* Our dependency on technology is so severe that at disasters which occur more frequently cut people off from outside world, because a cashless economy and other trade and transport depend heavily on vulnerable technology. Power blackouts are getting more common due to extreme weather.
* Space travel is almost impossible due to much more space debris inhibits launching space vehicles beyond Low Earth Orbit.
* Cities are full of jammed cars, despite being electric. The enormous electrical power amounts mankind uses had implications, even if all is renewable. When large costal areas are filled with wind farms and more and more rivers inundate natural areas for hydropower.
* The ice free North Pole region is almost devoid of natural life because of oil drilling and shipping routes.
* Glaciers are only in the Himalaya and Antarcica. The Andes, EU Alps, Kilimanjaro and NZ Alps are without snow.

And beyond ? Maybe mankind wakes up when world population has shrunk < 1 billion. Otherwise mankind will extinct. Moving to other planets ? Not easy, as long as we are unable to keep Earth terraformed, we cannot terraforming Mars or Venus.

Pessimistic ? Well when we continue like we live now this maybe the world after 50 years.

I hope I am completely wrong.

WE SHOULD CONSUME LESS

[LewisM]

My opinion: radioactive wasteland. Won't matter a zot what the weather/oceans/atmosphere will be like.

[AndrewJ]

Funny timing, as i heard this morning that rocket mans "visible demolition" of his old nuclear sites may just have been clearing the land for his new and better "block of flats" :-)
"Peace for our time" all over again???????
( After all, its almost that clangers 80th anniversary )

Andrew

[leon]

I don't expect I will be here at that time, :shrug: but i reckon a deadly super disease will cleanse this planet with few remaining :sadeyes: and/or as Lewis said a nuclear wasteland :sadeyes:
Either way we will kill our self's off, its the young of today that will carry this burden.:sadeyes:

Leon :thumbsup:

[dpastern]

An excellent diagnosis.



This is a real possibility. Why? As larger areas of land become uninhabitable, the large countries (US, China and Russia) will fight to take control of them. Things will get nasty, with the attitude of "if we can't have it, then no one can". The global economy as we know it is unsustainable. We are already seeing the start of its failure. Population will drastically reduce due to wars and to the wealthy pricing the basics such as shelter, food and water beyond the realms of 95% of the population. A dystopian society will ensure that the people do not rise up against the powers that be. Australia will be particularly vulnerable and will be assimilated by the Chinese - resources, food, and potentially a still semi liveable habitat. If you think the US or UK will protect Australia, you are sorely naive and mistaken.



The best thing that can happen to us as a species, and the rest of the planet is a super virus that takes out 99% of the human global population. It is indeed possible (1918 flu outbreak as an example). There is growing evidence to suggest that any such super virus would probably be man made (if you think the US military isn't experimenting with such things, you are a FOOL).

As to thermonuclear war, it won't take much to pretty much wipe out the entire planet. Even as little as 100 medium sized nukes is enough to do the job. An interesting TED talk on the subject...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7hOpT0lPGI&t=713s

[Lognic04]

Pity to think that older generations not caring about our planet have pretty much ruined it for me and my generation in the future :(
The fact that older generations will die off before this becomes a major life altering issue is awful - its like not taking out the trash for a year then moving out, no questions asked, leaving the stinking pile of trash for the next person to clean.

[redbeard]

:shrug:

[multiweb]

Really? :lol:

[theodog]

Ohh, Don't you sit in the corner pointing the finger. Your generation is part of this.


Ask your parents/grand parents how they dried clothing, got their milk, carried the groceries out of supermarkets and even used public transport.

Bloody young whippersnapper.:lol:

woohoo 1000

[Lognic04]

:shrug:

[casstony]

I sympathise with Logan and I think the younger generations should be very angry at the current caretakers of the planet. Who is responsible though?

My current view is that human populations are fairly dumb and easily manipulated by power hungry men. So who should we blame, the dumb voters or the psychopaths (CEO's and politicians) who control us?

[StuTodd]

In 50 years time - efficient batteries for cars negating the need for fossil fuels to power transport, nuclear fission reactors coming into fruition, clean up of the sea plastics completed.

Taxes on batteries and solar power being extortionate, still having no clue on what dark matter is, England still not winning a World Cup, 1000th McDonalds/Facebook/Google/BedsrUs disco ball "star for humanity" launched from NZ.

Bring it on....

[Tropo-Bob]

Everyday life will not change. Sport will still reign as the opium of the people. And when there is no sport, far too many people will use alcohol and drugs in excess to get away from it all.

There will be medical breakthroughs to extend life expectancy. These advances will be expensive and many oldies will be really bitter about going back to work to afford these.

Driverless cars will be mandatory. This will allow cars to follow each other with unbelievable small spaces between them. Roads will be able to carry 2 to 3 times their current volume with such technology. However, when it goes wrong, we will have our first crash of 10,000 vehicles.

Everybody will be really interested in fixing the environment. Currently, it is like that tooth pain that is ignored. However, the pain will explode as seafront esplanades disappear under the waves.

Oh, Astronomers will be very unpopular when viruses are brought back from Mars that start destroying our food chains.

Cheers!

[RobNevyn]

I so look forward to this if I live long enough, not the crashing part of course but the autonomous cars thing, humans are so inefficient and careless with their driving.

[xelasnave]

The situation can be turned around with a universal one child policy...so next year the world should allow the birth of one child.
Alex

[leon]

Alex, I was wondering where you were, :lol:

Leon :thumbsup:

[xelasnave]

Been busy Leon..drove down on Wednesday and two days sorting stuff but I always look in even if not logged on.

But when serious issues present as the one in the OP of course I have to help and provide the solution.

Alex

[The_bluester]

Is that one per family or one for the world? That would be some lottery.

[xelasnave]

Just one for the world ...I will volunteer to be the father to ensure a good future stock.
Alex

[el_draco]

Could go one of three ways...

1/ We get a VERY NASTY warning and take drastic steps to correct what we are doing.
2/ We make the planet unlivable for most species, including us.
3/ We linger for a while in a highly impoverished unstable state until we go into the night...

Either way, the planet endures, evolves and all traces of us are eventually erased.... except for a few bits drifting around the galaxy...

Of the choices... probably 3/

[geolindon]

i think the pessimistic view, is at least in part, self contradicting;

The diabolical economics is our best population control. Economically successful countries/families do not have enough children to maintain the population numbers, Australia has a declining population without net immigration despite bonus $$ for having a baby. Logan, please get a good high tax paying job so i and a coupla others can have a good pension for our many twilight years .

The current fracturing of unity eg Brexit & trade tiffs is a 'correction' and progress towards globalisation/unification/less borders will return to the long term trend. ever increasing information sharing guarantees it. Reducing the likely hood of KABOOM!

every day i read of advancements in our knowledge and understanding of our cosmos at every level. each advance has good and evil but arguably we have thus far managed for more good than evil.

yes, we sure do need to consume less wastefully but that attitude is trending in the right direction. combined with eg plastic reduced to its constituent elements by micro/nano fauna, and we will get back on track.

regards, L

[skysurfer]

Indeed, the younger generation is provided a messy world. I think both the voters and the politicians (particularly that lunatic in the White House) and CEOs are responsible.

As long as we consume way too much energy and resources the world cannot sustain even the current number of 8 billion people.

[clive milne]

(Emphasis added)

Trump is a puppet, he was bought and paid for back in 1987... to the tune of one and a half billion if memory serves me correctly.
The hustings are little more than theatre,
pablum for the prol's if you will.

For a little trip down the rabbit hole, do a search on:
Resorts international, Mary Carter Paint company, CIA, Mossad, Trump, Rothschild.
.... There be dragons...

[xelasnave]

I recall a sales motivation training type tape where the narrator preached the approach of positive thinking on a negative assumption.
So lets assume the worst will happen what will we have to do to manage.
I see going underground ..huge expansive caves I guess with parks and buildings ad vegetables hrowing under lights...on the ground about the land is covered with solar panels ad wind turbines...
Life will be different..no roads but underhround river systems to link regions...other cave cities...akr coditioned caves ...industries grow to harvest the old world that remains on the surface and you need space suits to work on the surface of the planet...
Alex

[skysurfer]

Then it is gone with astronomy and nature.
I'd rather stay in large satellites or spaceships orbiting Earth (or another planet) than never seeing daylight.

[KenGee]

mmm I think the reality will not much different than today. Temps might be 1 deg more on average and coming down with new mitigation projects working well.
China would have become a democratic country. more and more women would have got an education so fewer kids, better living standards, world popular declining by naturally.

Not sure why the pessimism maybe listening too many green armageddonist

[SimmoW]

Im pretty optimistic, big advances in zero emission transport.

But food, water, resources? As with all of human history, a war or 3 might be involved.

But our trees and creek wont care, theyll keep growing, silently watching things go by.

[xelasnave]

The caves will have higly insulated sky lights
...and horizontal outlooks will have giant highly insulated observation windows.
It will be really nice just different.
Alex

[AndrewJ]

No such thing. Maybe relocated emissions
Andrew

[el_draco]

Nothing like "head in the sand" ideology and boring platitudes... we have already passed two degrees... :rolleyes:

[casstony]

I'm optimistic on a daily basis (Sun's shining today, kids are happy, etc) but history rhymes and it suggests we're headed for desperate economic times and major conflict. Our scientists also tell us that we're facing serious environmental problems of our own making, so it seems wise to give more than a passing thought to the future...………..which brings me back to my earlier comment about human populations not being very bright :)

[clive milne]

Come on Rom... Queensbury rules, and all that.

fwiw) We haven't passed 2 degrees globally (except at high latitudes)
But we have most certainly locked in at least 2 degrees once the system has stabilised.

That being said, I believe even at 1 degree (which is where we are now) the siberian continental shelf methane positive feedback loop is now out of our control. This means game over basically, no matter what we try and do about it.

To elaborate on that a little, the continental shelf is quite shallow (less than 100 feet deep). The bio-matter there has been kept at 0C more or less year round due to the latent heat of the sea ice in the area.
That sea ice is no longer there during the summer months so the perma frost is thawing releasing methane at an exponentially increasing rate.

The quantity of methane that will be released in the next decade is of such a magnitude as to dwarf our global GHG impact. (by almost an order of magnitude).

There is no way to sugar coat it.
Civilisation as we know it cannot survive this.

[Jeff]

I agree with that analysis. Methane release from permafrost will have a big impact on greenhouse behaviour. But overall impact to global temperature is very difficult to model due to increased evaporation and cloud cover … reflecting more of the inbound radiation.

Climate impacts will be severe - significant changes to wind and precipitation patterns, more extreme weather, major fertile regions becoming arid and vice versa, coastal erosion, etc.

Sime devastating human impacts will hit those least equipped to cope … island communities inundated by sea level rise, and less affluent nations ravaged by droughts, floods, and cyclones/hurricanes/typhoons.

But it's not all doom and gloom.
By 2070 I expect the NBN rollout will be completed.

[AussieTrooper]

In every western country there is mass immigration from the third world. So the population still increases. Most notably there is a massive increase in a person's carbon footprint when they move from a poor country to a rich one.

[raymo]

When pondering upon the likely future of our poor beleaguered planet,
I like to look at the wider picture. Climate change is only one of a number
of factors involved in future living conditions, some are physical threats,
and some are more psychological, or perhaps better described as emotional;
our happiness quotient if you like.
Listed in no particular order of importance.
Over population.[Humanity, probably the worst biological entity to have arisen on this planet].

Climate change [ future effects guessed at at this stage].

Mass immigration [ numbers great enough to eventually thoroughly dilute the original culture and way of life of the receiving countries]. Already well under way in the U.K. In so many ways not the country I was brought up in; I would hate to live there now.

Artificial intelligence [potential threat]

Robots [putting ever increasing numbers of people out of work,
with nothing else in the offing to occupy their time or provide income.

Social media[ my pet hate. Cyber bullying and occasional consequent
suicides, kids sitting next to each other and texting each other, or
"look at this wonderful picture of what I cooked for dinner", who gives
a ---- what he/she [ see I'm not sexist] cooked?

46% of workers today are casual, hence the stress for many of them
of job insecurity, no sick leave etc:

Political correctness foisted upon us by people with nothing better to do
with their lives [this is changing our society much more than many people realise, what with Universities pushing this rubbish; becoming a bit of
a police state.

There are more factors, but I won't bore you with any more; I've had my
octogenarian's rant. Happy future youngsters.
raymo

[multiweb]

AI will probably help us work out how much time we have left, then it will become sentient and avoid us all the trouble by eradicating us as it will figure out it is the most efficient route. :lol:

[alan meehan]

just finished the series 100 that's were will be better sharpen my sword

[geolindon]

g day Ben and congrats, that is a cool list of provisional discoveries.

immigration from 3rd world to 2nd or 1st increases the population of the 2nd or 1st but reduces that of the 3rd world. Global population net 0 change. Except when they get on boats in the Mediterranean or Timor Seas, then there is a net -ve change by drowning :(
however now that 3rd worlder is in the 1st world they will breed far far less and there is a dramatic reduction in the global population compared to what would have been had they stayed 3rd world and compounding each subsequent generation. China has achieved this result by moving their economy 'up' the scale, far more effectively than the one child policy did.
now if we can just get them to re-use their 1st world coffee cups your last point is also covered :thumbsup:

regards, L

[AussieTrooper]

Cheers Lindon. If anyone wants the guide that I wrote on how to do it. PM me.


China is an interesting case. An absolute scumbag leadership, but on many levels heading in the right direction.

I'm not as pessimistic as many. The free market sorts it out.
Example:
Governments have argued for years about renewable energy. In the mean time, private enterprise saw the opportunity and took it. Right now there is somewhere between 10 and 20GW of enquiries from renewable generators in Victoria alone. By way of comparison, the peak load in Vic is generally about 10GW. If only half of it gets built, we will exceed the government's targets. Whether they like it or not.

[AndyG]

You serious? Any studies you could point to for clarification? Townsville (for example) has been a big drop off point for many refugees. I don't see them breeding any less.. The only thing that drops is infant mortality. Traditionally, they bare many young to offset expected losses, but those losses plummet the moment they set foot here. Net result? More people. Resources wise, they chew more than they ever did "back home" (Thanks to schooling, electricity, western comforts, etc). To their credit, they use public transport more than most - a genuine personal impost here, unlike more developed cities.

[AndrewJ]

Gday Lindon

Only for a very short while. Once population pressure decreases in the 3rd world, the breeding rate goes up to compensate, until they are back on the edge of the limits controlled by starvation.
Just look at the average ages in the "so called" 3rd world now.
Its massively skewed towards the younger generations who have been produced ( and will continue to be produced ) to fill the vacuum.
Its a truly sad part of the maths, but if life is "cheap" ( and thats a horrible way to describe it ), then it becomes abundant, even if a high percentage perishes along the way.
Our first world birth rates are only down because we can no longer afford to raise children in such a haphazard way.


Andrew

[geolindon]

g day Ben, Andrew Andy et al,

all good points :thumbsup:
and no, no studies just my observation.

i am heartened by business' responses like the example Ben gives BUT big business via profit at any cost and consumers buying on price alone have created the bulk of the problems the 1st world's wasteful and unhealthy consumption is compounding.

and yes 3rd world kids are often born and left to survive as their skills permit in the hope that at least one will be able to support elderly parents. raising their economic standard is the one way i have observed that actually breaks that cycle. its an unknown if we can do that raising and maintain the habitability of Earth until the global population goes into decline. again China seems to be be doing far more radical anti pollution changes than the West. it can be argued they need to! but the point is they are.

i do observe that the generation raised in the 1st world do breed far far less. dunno if its 'cos they can't afford the kids. it may be a choice to spent on extra comforts AND they don't have to play the numbers game for their doter age. the pension and just one or two kids is fine. this then compounds on through the generations.

a key for it all to work tho is far far smarter consumption by all worlds, espec the 1st.

regards, L