Aurora Alert - for 13/14 to 14/15 dec '06

[fringe_dweller]

from spaceweather.com

'X-FLARE: Sunspot 930 has just unleashed another big solar flare, an X3-class explosion at 0240 UT on Dec. 13th (9:40 pm EST on Dec. 12th).'

As I mentioned in another thread there was a major solar flare reported today (at around lunch time, wednesday 13th, for eastern oz) from the large sunspot present atm.

Given it takes between 12-24 hrs front leading edge of plasma cloud to hit earth, and activity can last for as much as 48 hours - altho that is unsual, more like a few hours to 24 hours in duration max.
Tonight and tomorrow night for southern latitudes ie below a line from Perth to Sydney, could see some activity, specially at dark sky sites, in the southern skies :thumbsup: of course Tassie is always in the box seat for such events, if clouds and bushfires arent a probem!

But then it is Dec and the chances of the IMF rolling over and going south easy arent as great as during spring and autumn, but if the plasma cloud has the right magnetic component/orientation (south) then it could get interesting!
good luck!

[ballaratdragons]

Thanks Kearn. Be good if the smoke blows away!

[davidpretorius]

thanks mate, i will be out there!

[fringe_dweller]

no worries Ken :thumbsup: yep, agreed not a real good time to have a possible display for the bushfire and cloud affected states, but thought it was worth a mention still, maybe WA has good weather? and promising Flares have been very rare this year, probably the best chance for the entire year so far even?

[fringe_dweller]

good luck Dave - look forward to some possible pics maybe! all going well that is :)

[Mr Bob]

We are (NZ / Aust) are ideally suited to get the most of the impact also.

[ving]

wouldnt it be grand if the sky cleared :D

i'll look tonight just in case... ya never know hey

[fringe_dweller]

well it hasn't arrived yet! so your spot on mr Bob :) local midnight tonight could be interesting

PS note: when I say southern skies, I mean that very generally, usually I find, the earlier in the night, I have even seen action due west (once briefly even n/w!)or S/W, straight after sunset, as the night progresses it swings more magnetic south, and just before dawn, they can even take on a s/e orientation. remember magnetic south is actually in the S/S/W for us here, as you all well know.

if there is such a thing as a one stop rough guide for predicting elevated activity, then this would be it,
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/plots/kp.html
the kp values - if it hits 6, then activity is probably visible for Tassie and NZ, if it climbs to 7/8 and over, than far southern mainland Australia has a good chance of visible activity - and activity, if any, could come in fits and spurts, as per usual.
The kp values would be about at least 90% accurate as rough guide, but it is only in 3 hour blocks in graph, so it is delayed, but look for climbing values prior.

[ving]

midnight tonight! yay! and its sunny out atm :)

[fringe_dweller]

Lucky man! Hope ya see something Ving :thumbsup:

[ving]

nup, its come over cloudier than a cloudy... umm... thing :(

[Mr Bob]

Geez this waiting sux

[stephenmcnelley]

It is clear and cool around 25' S, but we have no chance...
Have never seen the lights despite travel so would love to hear a description.
Wots happenning Tassie and Mr Bob?

[Mr Bob]

Well that was a flop

Clouded in about 1am so went to bed with the laptop so I could keep an eye on what was going on.

Didnt miss too much by the look of the numbers.

[fringe_dweller]

had some time out at a fairly dark sky watching geminids before moon rise, southern skies were the worst cloud bound of all the horizons for me, and I had as much 60% cloud free skies most of the time, didnt see any aurora action either -
altho when i got back I notice the Bz got to -10/south a fair bit and the kp was 6 last I looked according to the websites, the windspeed was decent too, at up around the nearly 1000 km/s - but ALL the variables have to be right unfortunately eh

[Mr Bob]

An X1 half an hour ago

[Mr Bob]

and now the KP is 8

typical


Sombody remind me again of why we do this?

[ving]

does an aroura look something like rain? thats all i saw last night :(

[fringe_dweller]

LOL yes of course its storming in broad daylight now, and mr Bob i truly dont know sometimes why I am addicted to these insane in the membrane pursuits (neither do many of my friends) must of been dropped my head as child?
thats why I have gone heavily back to music/guitar/performance/ect. as my main interest - I love the fact its not weather/location/ungodly hours dependent - and I can buy a gorgeous s/h stratocaster or high end recording application for the same price of just one canon high end lens! its a LOT cheaper and its pretty easy to make at least a little bit of money back out of music compared to this crazy hobby (not that thats the reason I do it)
gggrrr :P

:lol: @ Ving :)

[Mr Bob]

Oi

Yous Aussies keep the smoke over your side of the Tasman please

There is still hope of me seeing something

Jeez I'm a whinger.

[dcnicholls]

The shockwave hit at about 10am this morning. I find the IPS magnetometer plots a very good guide to whether an aurora is worth looking for (in Canberra, at least) http://www.ips.gov.au/Geophysical/1/1

Another very useful indicator used to be high frequency flutter on the audio for the BBC's shortwave transmissions (from London) on 15.070 mHz. The short path takes it to high southern latitudes on its way to Oz, and auroral activity modulates the signal in an easily identifieable way. Not sure if the BBC still uses that frequency, but any 19 metre band transmission from London should work.

DN

[fringe_dweller]

yep LOTS of ways to skin this particular cat eh DN - thanks! they are both great ways of detecting activity :thumbsup: the ham radio guys are always onto it pretty quick to -

personally the advance early warning service from our friends across the tasman, (and around the world) being first to go unto the night darkly, and when they feel like it, can be pretty darn helpful to :) the Kiwi early warning detection network system, if working, is the best possible I reckon :thumbsup:

http://www.spacew.com/www/auroras.php

I find, ultimately, there's no substitute for getting outside to a dark sky site and using the good old eyeballs ;)

[fringe_dweller]

on this subject DN, not sure if your aware, but there's going to be even more amazingly handy and useful data coming from some recent developments in spaceweather monitoring - like STEREO for instance, which
I notice both have seen first light just recently

http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/new.shtml

'December 14, 2006: All the subsystems on both spacecraft continue to perform very well. On Monday, Dec. 11, the Ops team performed a peak power test on the A-spacecraft. The arrays are producing slightly more power than expected (720W vs 690W). The G&C team has started to tweak the control algorithms with the result that mechanical oscillation of the SWAVES antennae has completely disappeared on both spacecraft. They will continue to fine tune the system and are planning a test which would run all the wheels through all speeds to investigate the effect of wheel speed on jitter.

The SECCHI SCIP-B telescope doors (EUVI, COR1 and COR2) were successfully opened Dec. 13 at 6:30am. First light images were taken and reviewed by a bunch of very happy scientists on the east and west coasts. Performance was as expected and comparable to the SCIP-A telescope images taken last week. In addition, there was a successful opening of the first HI telescope door on S/C-A. The HI images appear to be exceptional. This means that of the 10 SECCHI telescopes, 8 have successfully opened their doors and taken good images. The HI-B door, which covers the last 2 telescopes, will open at the end of December or early January, depending on when we verify that there will be no more B Observatory maneuvers.

The IMPACT SEPT-NS, SEPT-E and SIT doors were deployed Dec. 14 on Ahead. In anticipation of this exciting event, the Sun decided to become active making it easy to confirm the door openings in the science telemetry. There were 5 door actuations - one for SIT and two for each set of doors on SEPT-E and SEPT-NS. The door deployments for SIT, SEPT-NS and SEPT-E on Spacecraft B will be in mid January.'

man I wish they release some of THOSE images/data, they got the flare by the sounds of it :) getting very exciting now :2thumbs:

wonder what it will do for sun grazing comets ;) move over soho?

[fringe_dweller]

cool vid on the STEREO twins mission

http://learners.gsfc.nasa.gov/mediaviewer/stereo2/

as if that isnt enough!! and on top of that there is this one online 2008?

http://www.universetoday.com/2006/07/06/radio-telescope-will-look-back-to-the-beginning/

this from article

'To improve the predictions and provide reliable advance warning of adverse space weather, scientists must measure the magnetic field that permeates the material. Until now, there has been no way to make that measurement until the material is near Earth.
The LFD promises to change that. The telescope will see thousands of bright radio sources. The plasma ejected from the sun changes those sources’ radio waves as they pass through, but in a way that depends on the magnetic field strength and direction. By analyzing those changes, scientists will at last be able to deduce the all-important magnetic field properties of coronal mass ejections.
“This is the most crucial measurement to be made in support of our National Space Weather Program, since it would provide advance notice about the space weather effects on Earth well ahead of the time of impact of the plasma burst,” said Joseph Salah, director of the Haystack Observatory.'

which even has an Australian connection

http://www.haystack.mit.edu/ast/arrays/mwa/

[gaa_ian]

Some very good solar links there, I will keep them handy for when I am next in the "Deep South" ! Who Knows I may even see my first Aurora :thumbsup: