This is frightening

[Exfso]

Cold war here we go again, l truly hope common sense prevails.

http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2016/10/13/russia-usa-war/

[el_draco]

Article is pure hyperbole. The Cuban crisis was way hotter than this and the MAD doctrine still prevails. The risk of a war would be massively higher if that skunk headed twerp Trump won. If either side were stupid enough to push the button, then good riddance to the species. Time the roaches had a go anyhow! :rofl:

[JA]

Given the proxy (and maybe not so proxy) nature of Russian & US activities in Syria, I wouldn't call it a cold war more bordering on covertly TEPID. The pretext that both sides are there to fight ISIS - nice try spin guys!

Hopefully they can all come back to the table

Best
JA

[multiweb]

The whole Syrian conflict is about getting natural gas pipelines from Saudi Arabia to Europe. That's why everybody's in it. USA, Russia, Turkey, etc... ISIS is just a diversion. France is also lobbying for all the resources recently discovered underground off shore right in front of Syria, in the Mediterranean sea. They're all placing their pawns in place. Once again it is all about natural resources.

[alocky]

Interesting perspective. As someone who works for an oil and gas company with interests in that part of the world, and as someone with more than a passing awareness of how the gas trading world operates - especially around the eastern med, I have not seen anything to support this view. Have you got any evidence to support this? Not only that, but I am not aware of any gas discoveries offshore Syria. Again, something I am paid to be aware of.
There are minor onshore reserves around that ares, but gas is only a tiny part of the energy equation in that part of the world. Still - if you've actually got something to support your theory I'd be very interested to see it.
Cheers
Andrew.

[Exfso]

What really worries me is the fact that Putin is ex KGB, and a nutter to boot, I know "MAD" is supposedly the thing that will stop this, but when a nutter has control over a nuclear arsenal, then it is a whole new ballgame. I put him of the same ilk as Hitler, imagine what he would have done with nukes, the mind boggles.:screwy:
Interesting times ahead, let sane heads prevail for all our sakes.

[multiweb]

Hi Andrew, the pipelines routes through Syria and involvement with Qatar, Saudi, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Crimea are well publicized online. I'm on a tablet now but will provide some links for you to review from my PC in the morning. As for the natural gas reserves and the French involvment I was discussing that with my dad, earlier in the year. He was in the petro chemical industry with Total and Pechiney St Gobain. I'll dig out some other links and send them to you as well.

[clive milne]

I expect that this thread will be locked before I find the energy (and time) required to make a contribution worthy of the subject at hand and of a depth of detail sufficient to convey an insight consistent with what is actually going on... there is much afoot and it really is a powder keg... probably as bad (if not worse) than the Cuban missile crisis.

Tomorrow perhaps...

[alocky]

Thanks - I'm genuinely curious and interested!
I've visited Turkey a few times and absolutely love the place and the people, but for me the history lesson most relevant to this beautiful place tearing itself apart right now is the aftermath of the Crimean war and the lead up to the First World War. Of course it's not exactly the same, but I believe the main drivers are ethnic and ideological rather than commercial.

[multiweb]

Just PMd you some stuff. Will follow up in the morning. Absolutely, there is a lot history and bad blood in the region, tribal unresolved issues.

[silv]

Turkey.... his mighty highness' son-in-law has loads to gain ...
ah, don't get me started... Mr "Unpredictable Tyrant" Erdogan is a much bigger risk than Putin could ever be.
Ah, no, not a "risk" - because that would mean he is not doing anything YET.

But he is. Really... if anything ever called for a Lee Harvey Oswald then this is it.

[Exfso]

Clive I think you are correct it will probably be locked, but the fact is what is happening has the potential to totally stuff humanity. Regardless of underlying facts, when lunatics have control over nukes, Armageddon is a distinct possibility.:screwy:

[el_draco]

You've bought in to the whole western propaganda machine regarding Putin. The spin doctors did the same thing throughout the first "Cold War". Russians are Reds, Commies, out to rule the world... crap.

I can assure you, Putin is no "nutter" and if you take a cursory look at recent history, say the last 200 odd years, from a Russian perspective, you'll understand a little more why they don't trust "peace loving" western democracies. Russia has been assaulted by tin pot western dictators repeatedly and they want a barrier between them and the rest of the world... and lets not forget the recent missive from our own little budgy smuggler about "shirt fronting" Putin over MH17; that would be laughable if it weren't so incredibly embarrassing...

Comparing Putin to Hitler is a fallacy. Hitler initiated a war of aggression against his neighbours, Putin has not displayed any of Hitlers insanity. Quite the opposite. The Russians were incredibly restrained when NATO marched into Eastern Europe, for example.

As for Syria, well, as horrible as it is, its just another example of western interference gone wrong. We have this delusional belief that our political system is superior, (though you gotta be wondering by now if you have been following the Yankee election debacle), and yet again, trying to impose our beliefs on others has blown up in our faces. Stupid dogma driven egotists who still have not learned from experience.

Remember, Russia only very recently made an appearance in the Middle East to support an ally. The West has been in there for decades screwing it up. Who is the REAL bad guy here? :shrug:

[Pharian]

This threat is nonsense. Trump is in bed with Putin, and Putin wants Trump because he knows how weak Trump will be on the world stage (despite all the rhetoric). Putin isn't stupid enough to start throwing nukes around, no matter what some US media outlets might like us to think.

[Renato1]

When I read that piece in the New Daily yesterday, i was very disappointed, as the New Daily was missing the equivalent piece on the topic where Waleed Aly inevitably "nail's it".
Regards,
Renato

[clive milne]

Andrew,
It is my understanding that the conflict in Syria is NOT driven (entirely) by oil/interests or the proposed(?) Qatar - European pipeline, but they may well be factors.

A few items which may also be germane to the discussion include the oil reserves in the Golan heights and who stands to profit from them.

ie)

NEWARK, N.J., Oct. 9 2015 (UPI) -- Genie Energy, a company with headquarters in the United States, confirmed it made a major discovery of oil and natural gas in the Golan Heights.

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Industry/2015/10/09/Major-reserve-discovery-confirmed-in-Golan-Heights/6461444389373/


In a profile published by Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Genie CEO Jonas was described as one of the primary campaign supporters and U.S. allies of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The Israeli Ministry of Energy and Water Resources awarded a drilling permit to Genie (local subsidiary - Afek Oil and Gas) for territory in southern Syria (Golan Heights) in 2013.


The 'strategic advisory' board for Genie energy includes the following members:
former Vice President Dick Cheney, Michael Steinhardt, Jacob Rothschild, Rupert Murdoch, R. James Woolsey, Jr., Lawrence Summers and Bill Richardson.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genie_Energy

Rupert Murdoch is on record as stating that he isn't so much interested in reporting on global politics as he is in using his media empire to influence them.

Stealing Syrian oil is of course highly illegal and a violation of international law... not so much if you can manipulate your proxies into destroying the Syrian government and re-draw the map so to speak. And much easier if the people who set the public narrative (~cough~manufacture consent~cough~) are on board and profit from the deception.

The Syrian conflict predates Golan oil interests by a number of years, so it isn't by any means the cause.

However...
Whilst you might never see a vulture bring down a wilder-beast, they will invariably be front and centre when it's time to pick over the scraps.

~c

[multiweb]

This is an older report (https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/western-firms-plan-to-cash-in-on-syria-s-oil-and-gas-frontier-6c5fa4a72a92#.jiyp4440n) but offers a bit of history and context in a chronoligical manner.

[pmrid]

As a committed cynic, my instinct tells me the reason Putin seems to have a liking for Trump is not because of the latters's sunny disposition and blokey sense of humour. My gut tells me that with Trump at the helm, Putin can see an America grossly divided, racked by internal schisms and unable to function effectively at home or abroad. In the chaos of a disordered America, Putin can see delicious opportunities that he can exploit.
Peter

[silv]

Interesting.
These are all "known forces" you are talking about.
They just do what they've always done, anyway.
[And cause suffering for normal people in those regions, of course. ]

In that regard the risk for traditionally "western" states, i.e. people is low.

In comes an unknown force: Erdogan. That's a game changer. He's not playing by the rules established by the old players.
He's openly running amok. Supporting ISIS with weapons, performing genocide on Kurds, scaring the Turkish population into silence so no resistance against him will ever be possible again.

What's scary about that?
Turkey is a NATO state - and by inheritance somewhat entangled with the European populace and politics.

This crazy man Erdogan has the potential to fatally affront some state leader in the oil region - and then "we" are all hanging by the same NATO noose.

[raymo]

The real problem with Erdogan, is that he will be hard to remove, because
he is admired and fervently supported by the older, more conservative citizens, who strongly dislike Turkey being a secular state, and want Islam's power reinstated, and the country returned to how it was before Ataturk.
Wow, that was a long sentence!
raymo

[silv]

Wow, very long indeed! :D

And it is not so.
Not since the aftermath of the coup in July.
They who were not killed, imprisoned, fired, expropriated, YET, are scared into utter silence. That's why there is no official resistance, anymore - political or civil.

You can't even talk with your neighbor or cousin without being scared of denunciation(?word?) of being pro-Gülen, false or not.
If you own a property which your neighbor wanted to have for a long time: now is the time to be scared! If he goes to the police and tells them you are a Gülen-ist, you and your family are in real danger.

If it weren't soooo sad it would be really interesting as well.
Erdogan and Hitler are following the same dictator script, that's obvious enough.
But the "West" also faces the same dilemma as in the thirties.
We can not feel comfortable with interfering in the business of a "respected" state and a democratically empowered government.
Today, this is even more difficult with the Turkish closeness to NATO and EU.

And the "small people"? They see what is being done to the Kurds. They see what is done to the teachers of their kids and to the journalists, business people and lawyers and judges. They see that.
And they don't do anything.
Just like the Germans in the thirties.

They want to survive. They want their kids and spouses to survive. And foremost: lead a nice day-to-day life, if possible.

They are in no real position to oppose their government. It's too risky.

The Turkish intelligentsia accuse the EU of letting them down, again. First by not making Turkey a member state in the early 2000s. And now by not intervening and not stopping Erdogan's megalomania.

Just like in the thirties.

[clive milne]

With all due respect, I will correct you there...
Erdogan is actually worse than Hitler was with respect to property rights and political dissent.
Hitler offered Jews (in Germany) the opportunity to relocate to Palestine... all expenses paid, with full compensation for any material or financial assets they held (in Germany)

You can read about it if you google "Haavara Agreement"

This was in response to the (Zionist) Bankster's declaration of war against Germany in 1933 under the (false) guise of militant Judaism (for political/finacial reasons).. Hitler's original sin was to toss the Rothschild's banking cartel out of Germany... The rank and file Jews in Germany (and eastern Europe) were mostly horrified (by the trouble being stirred by the political zionists) and not complicit in this cynical manipulation of public opinion.. (my extended family amongst them)
And let's not forget that Hitler's attitude towards Jews was accommodating to the extent that no less than 150,000 of them served in the Wehrmacht... google: "Hitler's Jewish soldiers"

Erdogan is a fully fledged member of the absolutely EVIL group of utterly depraved psychopaths pulling the strings in the region... up there with Stalin imho)

[silv]

okay, I can not agree with your view on Hitler and what jews were offered and actually got.

But my original point was - and here we are on the same side, opinionwise - that Erdogan is a psychopath
- and as such a far more risky player than the old, established asshole-organisations treating the oil region as their sandpit.
It's unpredictable what he might do - and the NATO and the EU are affected by his madness directly.

At least, there's Putin to keep him somewhat in check... Erdogan looks up to him, it seems.
Where the EU has kicked him in the nuts repeatedly, or so he believes and makes his people believe, and therefor gets snubbed by Erdogan, Putin is a new master he can lick...

It's an odd thing, this Turkish self-demeaning and revolting against it. It's a trait which individual Turkish people show often in Germany. And it's a trait that gets nourished within the country by their press and by Erdogan, too.
Odd. Very odd. And risky.

[OICURMT]

Assad signed the agreement in 2012. It was in the PetroleumNew at the time and was considered a potential shift of influence in the region. The project sort of failed due to the Arab Spring. I assume it'll be back on the table once things settle down again.

There was an originally proposed alternative route is direct into Turkey via Iraq but considering the terrain of the Kurdish held north, was considered to expensive an option. The Kirkuk area is still unstable and Dohuk has a lot of problems with Turkey.

It's not about the gasfield in Syria, but transportation of south Arabian peninsula gas into Europe. Qatar and Iran share the world largest gas field (North Dome / South Par), containing 1800Tcf of gas and 50 billion barrels of oil. Qatar can't really build anymore LNG capacity as the world LNG market has shifted into a buyers market. Japan's recent win over contractual acceptance at specific destination has changed the market.

Also, their GtL plant was more expensive than they originally anticipated, so the lower unit cost for transportation in the distances we are talking about would be a pipeline.

Last item: Leviathan was to be Europe's hope for short-mid term gas supply, but Israel looks to be reserving most of the gas, so it's going to be an economically challenged development. If Leviathan were to be developed for Europe, it would take a lot of the pressure off of the current problems around Syria.


OIC!

[AussieTrooper]

Well put.

If Trump wins, he will want to get out of this whole situation. He blames the mess on Clinton, and many would say he is right to do so.
Trump is on far better terms with Putin than Clinton is.
The reality is that the only people who are going to wipe out ISIS in Syria is the Assad regime, and the only way they will do that is with support from Russia.
I really wish we would stay out of the middle east. Every time we try to sort the place out, all that happens isone nutbag ends up replacing the last one.
The best course of action is to stay out, and let it stabilise. If that means letting a dictator survive, then so be it.

[Shano592]

Well, when Trump gets pasted in the US election, he can always become a consultant for Vlad the Invader. I hear he knows how to get walls built, at the cost of his neighbours...