Russian Progress 59 supply ship for ISS spinning out of control

[gary]

Space.com reports that the Russian Progress 59 spacecraft suffered
a malfunction after launch yesterday and is spinning out of control.

The robotic cargo ship is part of a fleet that carries supplies to the ISS.

Story here -
http://www.space.com/29243-russian-cargo-spacecraft-malfunction-progress59.html

[pluto]

Interesting, I've been following this today and it doesn't look good.

There's some footage from it here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMiNjHjpunU
And there's an informed discussion of it here:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35789.360

[hobbit]

Progress is just a remote controlled soyuz isn't it?
Going to be a bit of a dent for an almost perfect record.

[pluto]

Similar to the manned spacecraft but has been developed separately for many years. This Progress used the same first, second, and I think third, stages of the new Soyuz-2 rocket which I believe will be used for the next manned Soyuz flight so they'll be making sure it isn't a design issue with the rocket before it flies again.

Sounds like it'll reenter within the next couple of days. The assumption is that with that spin the solar panels won't be generating enough power so the batteries will be dead by now so even if they could communicate with it and use the RCS (which isn't working) to stabilise it they've most probably already run out of time.

[JB80]

http://www.n2yo.com/?s=40619

If this is accurate it has dropped below 200km in altitude and falling, not sure at what point it will start to burn up.
It may put on a show but hopefully none will survive re-entry.

[glenc]

This map shows its location now
http://www.n2yo.com/news/?n=2730

[pluto]

I certainly hope it doesn't re-enter over a populated area.

This tracker has a little more info such as current altitude:
http://www.satflare.com/track.asp?q=40619,40620#TOP

EDIT just realised that first n2yo.com link had more info :)

[pluto]

A nominal parking orbit for the Progress ships is 193x239 km and from what I've read the actual orbit when the troubles began was 193x277 km. So that perigee is already below 200kms and is quite low.

[xelasnave]

If only this food could fall where it's needed..it will be already cooked.
It should break up but will it burn up such not to be dangerous to humans in it's path?

[tlgerdes]

Can someone make sure the Russians watch the movie Gravity, before they try to explosively deal with it ;)

[pluto]

As far as I know Progress re-entries don't usually produce debris that reaches the surface but this one's a bit different. I don't know the orbit from which they're usually de-orbited but I'm assuming this ones a little lower meaning it's travelling a little slower (though not much I guess) so I'm not sure if that will affect it. Also it's carrying a few hundred kgs of propellant that would normally have been transfered to the ISS so that might make a difference, perhaps of the explosion kind!

[pluto]

lol they would never have made it to orbit if they had taken advice from that films portrayal of reality. Gravity, the movie, got gravity, the force, completely wrong... kinda ironic I guess but par for the course in Hollywood :P

[xelasnave]

An explosion would be helpful, presumably resulting in smaller pieces to burn up.

[doppler]

Looks like it is going to re enter in the next couple of days.
http://www.spaceflight101.com/progress-m-27m-re-entry.html

It is doing some visible passes over Australia over the next couple of nights, if you can get a view from your location it is changing brightness every couple of seconds due to its spinning. Check heavens above http://www.heavens-above.com/ for visibilty times for your location. In Mackay our last look at it is tonight at about 6.00pm, will try for some pics.
Rick

[Dboots]

Hi All,

I viewed it last night at around 17.47 from the Gold Coast. It was visibly flaring and moving FAST.

The current prediction is that it will re-renter around May 8 around 6.10 UTC +/- 6 hours.

Duncan