Bad Weather Formula Proposal

Octane (Humayun) · #1 17-01-2006, 04:44 PM

Hi all,

I am not sure of this, but I don't believe there exists a Universal formula (which applies to Australia, anyway) for working out bad weather (for observing and imaging) after the ordering or purchasing of new equipment, and how it affects everyone else in the observing community.

In this post I propose two formulas.

Typically, there are two factors involved when making astronomical purchases. Firstly, there is cost. This hobby is cost-prohibitive for a lot of people. Secondly, there is size. Some equipment is big, some equipment is small. I propose that a user utilises the appropriate formula based on whether they purchase a telescope, a mount, etc. (cost) or an eyepiece, focal reducer, etc. (size).

1. COST-BASED FORMULA

Research shows that the more expensive the equipment we purchase, the more bad weather we encounter, either immediately following the order of the product, or the purchase of the product. One only has to read the iceinspace.com.au forums to find disgruntled observers.

W = sqrt(C * (E_u / E_p))

Legend:
W = weather (the higher the W, the worse the weather; the interpretation of this figure is approximately equal to hours)
C = cost of new equipment
E_u = enthusiasm to use
E_p = enthusiasm to pay

Note: E_u and E_p are ratings between 1 and 10; 1 being small and 10 being big.

Example:
Joe Bloggs purchases an 8" Schmidt-Cassegrain telescope valued at $2,895. He is extremely enthusiastic to use his new toy, and is fairly happy to part with his cash.

W = sqrt(C * (E_u / E_p))
W = sqrt(2895 * (10 / 8))
W = sqrt(2895 * 1.25)
W = sqrt(3618.75)
W = 60.156047077579823305056688781065
W = 60.16 (2 decimal places)

It therefore follows that Joe Bloggs, and the majority of other observers, consequently, will be unable to use their equipment for at least two and-a-half days after he receives his new toy.

2. SIZE-BASED FORMULA

Statistics reveal that the duration of bad weather is inversely proportional to the size of the new equipment ordered or purchased. This has been reinforced through the sheer number of observers having purchased Telrad's and eyepieces, and then not being able to test or use them.

W = ((1 / S) * (E_u / E_p)) * 100

Legend:
W = weather (the higher the W, the worse the weather; the interpretation of this figure is approximately equal to hours)
S = size of new equipment
E_u = enthusiasm to use
E_p = enthusiasm to pay

Note: S, E_u and E_p are ratings between 1 and 10; 1 being small and 10 being big.

Example:
Joe Bloggs purchases a Telrad valued at $89. He is excited to use his new toy, and is quite happy to part with his cash.

W = ((1 / S) * (E_u / E_p)) * 100
W = ((1 / 3) * (8 / 8)) * 100
W = (0.33333333333333333333333333333333 * 1) * 100
W = 33.333333333333333333333333333333
W = 33.33 (2 decimal places)

It therefore follows that Joe Bloggs, and the majority of other observers, consequently, will be unable to use their equipment for at least one and-a-quarter days after he receives his new toy.

Quod erat demonstrandum,
Humayun

Muddy Diver · #2 20-01-2006, 12:12 PM

Hilarious Octane. (Are you on Holiday)?

Perhaps we could also consider a theological viewpoint that God hates astronomers. (and knows the stock movementts ex Bintel, Andrews etc)

(only took me a minute to come up with this and I can't be proven wrong) He He.

Itchy · #3 20-01-2006, 01:00 PM

All righty then!

I haven't purchased new equipment since October and I suffered my delay at the time.

What I want to know is: Who is responsible for the current situation??!! Either someone around here (Hunter Valley) got some VERY expensive toy for Christmas or in fact your formula is additive and punishes each astronomer in turn rather than concurrently.

cheers

ving (David) · #4 20-01-2006, 01:24 PM

bought a lens....

gagh!

ThunderChild (Chris) · #5 20-01-2006, 01:51 PM

I am to blame I believe (at least in part).
New scope (6") + extreme enthusiasm.

If we can prove that all bad effects happen concurrently, then I propose
that we organise ourselves to make all our expected purchases on the
same day. We will wait for a very poor weather forecast and all go out
and spend up big on that day.

We could revolutionise astronomy!
(or create a cyclone that devistates half of Australia - fair gamble

)

Noidea · #6 20-01-2006, 02:18 PM

As a Newbie to Astronomy and to this site I wondered what one did during long periods bad weather. I imagined maybe stripping scopes and cleaning lenses, Collimating, studying star maps, but now it's clear. WAY too much spare time! It was very amusing to read, thanks Octane for the laugh.

My belief is that the current bad weather is your formula multiplied by all the Xmas gift Telescopes, mine included.

fringe_dweller · #7 20-01-2006, 04:50 PM

I think i would add another factor even thinkin about buying stuff would have to be included hehe maybe - E_t
excellent laugh - cheers!

ving (David) · #8 20-01-2006, 04:52 PM

nah kearn, i am always thinking bout buying stuff....

Octane (Humayun) · #9 21-01-2006, 04:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muddy Diver

Hilarious Octane. (Are you on Holiday)?

Hi Muddy Diver,

As a matter of fact, I am. I'm in between contracts and a job, actually.

Cheers.

Regards,
Humayun

Octane (Humayun) · #10 21-01-2006, 04:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Noidea

As a Newbie to Astronomy and to this site I wondered what one did during long periods bad weather. I imagined maybe stripping scopes and cleaning lenses, Collimating, studying star maps, but now it's clear. WAY too much spare time! It was very amusing to read, thanks Octane for the laugh.

My belief is that the current bad weather is your formula multiplied by all the Xmas gift Telescopes, mine included.

Hi there Noidea,

Glad you liked it.

I was beginning to wonder if people thought it was lame, as there wasn't a single reply for a few days. Almost felt like going in and editing the post and just removing its contents!

Regards,
Humayun

davidpretorius · #11 21-01-2006, 09:56 AM

very good.

when it horrible observing, straight in on here to create havoc!! and of course telescope maintainence

anthony2302749 · #12 21-01-2006, 10:58 AM

So I guess that means you can equate the two.
Since w=sqrt(c*(E_u/E_p) and also w=((1/S)*(e_u/E_p))*100
then sqrt(c*(E_u/E_p) = ((1/S)*(e_u/E_p))*100
solving this for S
C*(E_u/E_p) = ((1/S)*(e_u/E_p))² * 100²
= [(1/S)*(E_u/E_p)]*[(1/S)*(E_u/E_p)] * 10³
=1/S² * (E_u/E_p)² * 10³
C/10³ = 1/S² * (E_u/E_p)
(C/10³)/(E_u/E_p) = 1/S²
S² = 1/(C/10³)/(E_u/E_p)
S = sqrt[1/(C/10³)/(E_u/E_p)]

So this is just another way of saying "is it really worth it?"
So size does matter!!!
At least it takes up the time whilst the clouds disipate.

Rodstar (Rod) · #13 21-01-2006, 11:38 AM

A flaw in the above theorums is the effect of selling good astro gear. I sold a Nagler EP a few weeks ago...I think the gods are punishing me.....

[1ponders] (Paul) · #14 21-01-2006, 12:31 PM

Interesting theories.

However they don't seem to take into account that purchasing second hand equipment doesn't seem to effect the weather as badly as purchasing new equipment. I believe you need to include and adjustment factor somewhere in your calculations to take this into account. Not having done a direct comparison on the effects of new versus old I believe as a starting point a simple ratio of old to new would give a valid starting point. eg C_O_E/C_N_E . (cost of old equipment/cost of new equipment)

So Octanes oiginal equation would read
W = sqrt(C * (E_u / E_p))*C_O_E/C_N_E