Russia announces Falcon 9 copy program

[glend (Glen)]

Russia has kicked off reusable booster development program, and what better design to copy than the SpaceX Falcon 9. I would bet Russia has lost considerable orbital lift business to SpaceX, including transport to the ISS. Musk doesn't seem too worried and has offered suggestions. By the time the Russian booster is ready in 2026, SpaceX will have a large reusable fleet, including the lunar and Martian Starship variants. Cost per lifted ton will continue to drop with SpaceX economies of scale, makes it a tough commercial market to compete. By 2026, SpaceX should have ships on the Moon and Mars (even if just cargo flights initially).

https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2020/10/r...ooks-familiar/

[TrevorW]

Mars will never be viable IMO until travel time can be cut to at least 30 days. So whoever can come up first with a fast ship will win the race

[Startrek (Martin)]

The pace at which Space X is designing , developing , manufacturing and launching new generation cost effective space craft is astonishing, I doubt whether Russia will be a serious contender for the future multi planetary program ( Moon / Mars )
Their space shuttle program in the late 80’s “Buran” to compete with the US shuttle program was a flop , one unmanned flight then the program was mothballed.They have been launching the same type of hardware for decades now , very reliable but limited in future capabilities
The US now have a fully budgeted space program with Congress support ( so far )
It will be interesting to follow development of this Russian “falcon 9” copy

[samll]

The pace at which Space X is designing , developing , manufacturing and launching new generation cost effective space craft is astonishing, I doubt whether Russia will be a serious contender for the future multi planetary program ( Moon / Mars )
Their space shuttle program in the late 80’s “Buran” to compete with the US shuttle program was a flop , one unmanned flight then the program was mothballed.They have been launching the same type of hardware for decades now , very reliable but limited in future capabilities
The US now have a fully budgeted space program with Congress support ( so far )
It will be interesting to follow development of this Russian “falcon 9” copy

after 90-s whole Russian space program is just cannibalizing on what has left from USSR
Musk even wrote in his book that he tried to buy two rockets for them and the deal blow off just because they wanted more money to steal from the deal.

[LewisM]

Originally Posted by samll

after 90-s whole Russian space program is just cannibalizing on what has left from USSR

Errrr. Nope. All wrong and baseless

[Xeteth (David)]

Good luck to the Russians, any new hardware and competition in space drives innovation and delivers competitive pricing. However, I honestly don't know if they will have the resources to do it - it will require a large investment and they will probably see many setbacks as did SpaceX in the early days.

One of the key benefits that SpaceX has is that it currently is one of the cheapest options for launching payloads, combined with a rapid development cycle for new hardware. However, they have recognised that if there were another company that was able to achieve reusable rockets (and therefore offer competitive launch prices) then they lose the somewhat 'monopoly' on the market. But, they're smart. They've found something that can keep the cashflow coming in, and in a big way - Starlink, a constellation of thousands of satellites providing high-speed internet access across the globe.

On one hand, I absolutely love SpaceX. They're driving innovation in the space field and really making progress with what they're doing. Starship development is fascinating and I can't wait to see Super Heavy and Starship fly. But on the other hand, Starlink is going to obliterate and degrade ground-based astronomy as we know it and they seem to have little care for these impacts unfortunately.

Anyway, that's a whole other story. Back to the rocket thing - I love any new space hardware so it'll be another interesting story to follow.

[DavidU (Dave)]

Well said !

Originally Posted by Xeteth

Good luck to the Russians, any new hardware and competition in space drives innovation and delivers competitive pricing. However, I honestly don't know if they will have the resources to do it - it will require a large investment and they will probably see many setbacks as did SpaceX in the early days.

One of the key benefits that SpaceX has is that it currently is one of the cheapest options for launching payloads, combined with a rapid development cycle for new hardware. However, they have recognised that if there were another company that was able to achieve reusable rockets (and therefore offer competitive launch prices) then they lose the somewhat 'monopoly' on the market. But, they're smart. They've found something that can keep the cashflow coming in, and in a big way - Starlink, a constellation of thousands of satellites providing high-speed internet access across the globe.

On one hand, I absolutely love SpaceX. They're driving innovation in the space field and really making progress with what they're doing. Starship development is fascinating and I can't wait to see Super Heavy and Starship fly. But on the other hand, Starlink is going to obliterate and degrade ground-based astronomy as we know it and they seem to have little care for these impacts unfortunately.

Anyway, that's a whole other story. Back to the rocket thing - I love any new space hardware so it'll be another interesting story to follow.

[samll]

Errrr. Nope. All wrong and baseless

Name at least one new thing that they made and that wasn't a disaster
New spaceport costed 4 billion dollars and its still not finished
No new rockets developed since the Soviet Union
Old rockets have a 33% success lanch rate
Disaster after disaster on rushing part of the international space station

[glend (Glen)]

Originally Posted by samll

Name at least one new thing that they made and that wasn't a disaster
New spaceport costed 4 billion dollars and its still not finished
No new rockets developed since the Soviet Union
Old rockets have a 33% success lanch rate
Disaster after disaster on rushing part of the international space station

Hmmm, does bode well for their virus vaccine.

[TommyJ (Tom)]

Originally Posted by glend

Russia has kicked off reusable booster development program, and what better design to copy than the SpaceX Falcon 9. I would bet Russia has lost considerable orbital lift business to SpaceX, including transport to the ISS. Musk doesn't seem too worried and has offered suggestions. By the time the Russian booster is ready in 2026, SpaceX will have a large reusable fleet, including the lunar and Martian Starship variants. Cost per lifted ton will continue to drop with SpaceX economies of scale, makes it a tough commercial market to compete. By 2026, SpaceX should have ships on the Moon and Mars (even if just cargo flights initially).

https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2020/10/r...ooks-familiar/

Of course he is not worried about this. But at some point, commercial space companies will still compete. Just in a slightly different form. Each niche will be occupied by a specialized company. And this one only paves the way for the rest into a new wonderful world. There are enough bright minds on the planet who are able to do other important things that are not being paid attention to now, but without which we ultimately cannot imagine our life.

[TommyJ (Tom)]

Of course he is not worried about this. But at some point, commercial space companies will still compete. Just in a slightly different form. Each niche will be occupied by a specialized company. And this one only paves the way for the rest into a new wonderful world. There are enough bright minds on the planet who are able to do other important things that are not being paid attention to now, but without which we ultimately cannot imagine our life

[cannon_gray (Cannon Gray)]

This is the Russian way to contribute space industry and upgrade the Soyuz spacecraft technique. Some others are trying to build the rocket from the scratch and both methods have the right to exist. The British launch vehicles are now suitable for placing cargo to LEO or like Skylark-L rocket which is used for microgravity experiments while taking advantage of Skyrora's environmental conscious fuel combination.

[Rerouter (Ryan)]

I'm going to guess the challenge will be finding enough people who can best work out how the knobs all need to be set, things like having 50 odd components each with there own sweet spots vs other parameters, how do you best trim things in to get the best performance out of it, then iterating to reach something you can actually manufacture.

Simulation tools help speed up the process today, but there is still some difficulty in modelling all the trade offs to walk this path. and course correcting for the few thousand extra ones that no one thinks about until your practically dreaming the designs.

[TBA (Shaun)]

Originally Posted by glend

Hmmm, does bode well for their virus vaccine.

Sputnik 1 was a success.... Sputnik 2 might be also.