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Old 18-06-2019, 11:31 AM
gary
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Post China's population projected to decrease by 31.4 million between now and 2050

A U.N. report released today projects the world's population is projected to increase from 7.7 billion currently to 9.7 billion in 2050.

However it is growing at a slower pace. The global fertility rate fell from 3.2 births per woman in 1990 to 2.5 births in 2019 and is projected to decline further to 2.2 births by 2050.

A fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman is need to ensure population replacement and avoid declines, according to the report.

The new population projections indicate that nine countries will be responsible for more than half the projected population growth between now and 2050.
In descending order of the expected increase, they are: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the United States.

In sub-Saharan Africa, population is projected to nearly double by 2050, where the fertility rate is 4.6 births per woman.

Between 2019 and 2050 populations are projected to decrease by one percent or more in 55 countries or areas, of which 26 may see a reduction of at least 10 percent.

In China the population is projected to decrease by 31.4 million, or around 2.2 percent, between 2019 and 2050.

Story here :-
https://phys.org/news/2019-06-world-...n-billion.html

The U.N. 2019 Revision of World Population Prospects
https://population.un.org/wpp/

Interactive maps :-
https://population.un.org/wpp/Maps/
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Old 18-06-2019, 01:46 PM
gaseous (Patrick)
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"In sub-Saharan Africa, population is projected to nearly double by 2050, where the fertility rate is 4.6 births per woman."


That's just insane. Looks like the cycle of children living in poverty will continue for the time being.
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Old 18-06-2019, 06:53 PM
Multiverse (Grant)
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Yes, and there are many poor countries in Africa infested with catholic missionaries preaching their infantile drivel. They tell that condom use will send them to to an imaginary hell, so the starving will continue to have many more children destined for starvation. Along with this is an increase in spread of AIDS.

Last edited by Multiverse; 18-06-2019 at 11:03 PM.
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Old 18-06-2019, 11:00 PM
Sunfish (Ray)
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Thanks Gary,

It is interesting that demographers puts the decline in birth rates down to better medical treatment , vaccination and family planning in places such as Bangladesh where the rate has fallen to around 2. People are happier to have smaller families and not suffer the agonies of loss. Perhaps Africa will discover this sooner than we think.

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Originally Posted by gary View Post
A U.N. report released today projects the world's population is projected to increase from 7.7 billion currently to 9.7 billion in 2050.

However it is growing at a slower pace. The global fertility rate fell from 3.2 births per woman in 1990 to 2.5 births in 2019 and is projected to decline further to 2.2 births by 2050.

A fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman is need to ensure population replacement and avoid declines, according to the report.

The new population projections indicate that nine countries will be responsible for more than half the projected population growth between now and 2050.
In descending order of the expected increase, they are: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the United States.

In sub-Saharan Africa, population is projected to nearly double by 2050, where the fertility rate is 4.6 births per woman.

Between 2019 and 2050 populations are projected to decrease by one percent or more in 55 countries or areas, of which 26 may see a reduction of at least 10 percent.

In China the population is projected to decrease by 31.4 million, or around 2.2 percent, between 2019 and 2050.

Story here :-
https://phys.org/news/2019-06-world-...n-billion.html

The U.N. 2019 Revision of World Population Prospects
https://population.un.org/wpp/

Interactive maps :-
https://population.un.org/wpp/Maps/
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Old 19-06-2019, 12:44 AM
gary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunfish View Post
Thanks Gary,

It is interesting that demographers puts the decline in birth rates down to better medical treatment , vaccination and family planning in places such as Bangladesh where the rate has fallen to around 2. People are happier to have smaller families and not suffer the agonies of loss. Perhaps Africa will discover this sooner than we think.
Hi Ray,

Bangladesh and Pakistan are interesting comparative cases.

I have travelled extensively through both countries.

It is interesting to compare their demographics today compared to 1971
when Bangladesh split off from West Pakistan and became independent.

Back in 1971, the mortality rate for children under 5 years-old
in Bangladesh was an appalling 25%.

Both it and Pakistan had a fertility rate of around 7 children per woman.

But in the late 70's Bangladesh started a contraceptive distribution program
and the fertility rate declined and the mortality rate for children also
dramatically declined.

This in turn brought about improvements in health, education and nutrition.

Pakistan, by comparison, didn't initiate a similar family planning program.

When you travel there, it has a very fatalistic mindset and nearly every
sentence is punctuated with the word "Inshallah" - "If God wills it" - which
quite likely permeates its way into the approach for family planning.
Pakistan also feels more conservative than Bangladesh.

So that might account for why Pakistan's fertility rate today is approximately
one child per woman higher than Bangladesh's and why
the under 5 mortality rate is double. Pakistan is in the list
of top ten countries where population will increase by the largest percent
between now and 2050.

One of the things I find surprising when comparing the two countries
is that the geography of Bangladesh makes it the more challenging place
for health of the two. It really is mainly water with some patches of land.
When you travel there, you have to be on-guard against cholera. Spread
through contaminated water, you commonly read of outbreaks in
the local press and it is probably still the largest cause of child mortality.
But they have an active vaccination program that has improved the
greater population's resilience to it.

Global warming, rising water levels and more severe monsoons
will be its next big challenge.
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Old 19-06-2019, 01:13 AM
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Ukastronomer (Jeremy)
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If for any reason people think for one moment that this planet can sustain much more population look here, especially before you ever throw away any GOOD food ever again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7gD...VnGCGrRthK8HwA

AND this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRPmLWYbUqA

Lets not forget that ALL, every single 1st world (what is 2nd world?) and third world country have starving people, UK, USA AUS etc.

What totally, really b****** annoys me, sorry are the people who I hear daily saying (I can only speak for here in the UK) that they have starving children who they can not afford to feed and there are thousands of children living in poverty and then you see the parents smoking etc.

As a SINGLE father of three, I never smoked, never drank and never went on holiday, my sons ate vegetables and good food and always had good clothes, not designer clothes but clean and washed




..
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Old 19-06-2019, 07:25 AM
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xelasnave
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Generalising isnt helpful and one can focus upon "bad" parents and forget those who do the right thing.
I think the real concern we should have is given the interdependence of humans is that of a world wide collapse. Heck just think of food distribution and how vunerable the monopolistic system exposes all to starvation if say fuel ceased to flow if only for a week or two...I dont know if anyone has researched our dependance on the net but I recall going to Tabby one day where you could not get service at the shop because the phone line was out...not even if you had cash...and that was a little shop where you would think the owners could have worked around the problem..heck in big organisatiins where job descriptions rules out creative problem solving one wonders who will fix something when it goes wrong.
We may think we are at the limits of population but no way yet..once we get rid of all the animals and birds that we cant eat the opportunity for many more humans will open up☺
Alex
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