Am a vOLUNTEER IN THE rURAL fIRE sERVICE, Bush fire brigade.
a FEW YEARS AGO OUR BRIGADE WAS TOLD if we are called to an Accident with an Hybrid Electric Car we should stand well bACK AND LET IT BURN, EVEN if there are People trapped inside.
See the fumes from the burning batteries are toxic, and our RFS bushfire brigade does not carry breathing equipment.
New car may be different, but that was what we were told a few years ago.
in such a case we would call on our radios for a Town Brigade with breathing gear, but by then any occupants of that electric car would be dead.
So these cars may suit in the city, but not away from the city.
That's interesting John but, you might wish to read this study which suggests that an EV fire is not necessarily more dangerous or toxic than an ICE vehicle fire.. that is not to say there aren't dangerous or toxic chemicals aren't being released into the air but, rather there is not necessarily more danger in either circumstance...
I guess the issue here might be that you & your team are already exposing yourself to unknown dangers in attending an ICE vehicle fire that have been somewhat down played in the past perhaps...
Anyways, interesting study & read...
There are other similar studies & test reports available online... it seems the conclusion is that whilst there are 'different' dangers related to an EV fire, they are no more dangerous to firefighters than an ICE vehicle fire...
a FEW YEARS AGO OUR BRIGADE WAS TOLD if we are called to an Accident with an Hybrid Electric Car we should stand well bACK AND LET IT BURN, EVEN if there are People trapped inside.
That.... is extreme.
I hope I never get into an accident in an electric vehicle in your neck of the woods.
You know when the company that ships the highest selling pickup truck is moving to EV that it's serious. Think of the traditional market they are targeting here. It needs to tow, it needs to have range, it needs to have power. It has to be as good or better than the current ICE version.
Time to get over your fears of EV - ICE is on its way out. Shame we are dragging our heels here in Australia, but with the incompetence and corruption we have in our political arena, I guess it's to be expected.
I am reluctant to enter this discussion due to the large amount of misinformation and uninformed comment that has been posted.
I am the owner, and driver, of a Tesla Model 3 SR+, the least expensive in the Tesla range. Have had the vehicle for 18 months. Do not have another car. Trouble free 21,000km.
From reading the other posts I think there is one other EV owner/driver who has made comments.
A couple of points, if I may.
If you haven’t owned/driven an EV, how can you comment on the pros/cons.
The age demographic of people interested in astronomy is middle aged at best. A very conservative and set in their ways group. Usually unwilling to change or adapt. I am 72.
Global warming is a real and very dangerous threat to our grandchildren’s future. Emissions must be reduced for us, and future generations not to mention wildlife.
It costs me $34 to do the return trip from the Northern Beaches of Sydney to Canberra to visit my daughter. The rest of the time the car is charged from the 40% of the unused energy from my rooftop PE cells/battery. Cost, zero. Also no servicing costs. I know comments will be made as to the cost of all this. EV rooftop solar, battery etc. I am a retired teacher, as is my wife, we are not millionaires. It’s all about priorities.
My EV takes 20 -30 minutes to charge using a super charger. Time enough to have a cuppa and stretch the legs. Range is a realistic 350 km with a bit to spare at the end.
I am driving to Tasmania, from Sydney, around Tasmania and back, Covid willing. No problems with charging.
Economically and environmentally there is no argument. As I said before, it’s all about priorities.
In closing, change, big change, is coming. Like to or not. Change or be left behind.
I know some people will be upset with what I have posted but sometimes things need to be said.
Fire at will.
Harry its nice to know at 72 you can afford a $64000 (base price) vehicle, regardless of the environmental and economics of an electric vehicle the sheer cost to acquire is beyond the pockets of most, and n large parts of Australia they are not practical at present
That.... is extreme.
I hope I never get into an accident in an electric vehicle in your neck of the woods.
It is because the fumes can kill the firefighters if they get too close with out breathing Equipment. And our RFS brigade does not have breathing equipment.
That's interesting John but, you might wish to read this study which suggests that an EV fire is not necessarily more dangerous or toxic than an ICE vehicle fire.. that is not to say there aren't dangerous or toxic chemicals aren't being released into the air but, rather there is not necessarily more danger in either circumstance...
I guess the issue here might be that you & your team are already exposing yourself to unknown dangers in attending an ICE vehicle fire that have been somewhat down played in the past perhaps...
Anyways, interesting study & read...
There are other similar studies & test reports available online... it seems the conclusion is that whilst there are 'different' dangers related to an EV fire, they are no more dangerous to firefighters than an ICE vehicle fire...
This was Hybrid cars of a few years back. Some more modern cars may have changed in this reguard.
Harry its nice to know at 72 you can afford a $64000 (base price) vehicle, regardless of the environmental and economics of an electric vehicle the sheer cost to acquire is beyond the pockets of most, and n large parts of Australia they are not practical at present
No ill thoughts to those who can afford such. I'm currently on a 20yr old Falcon 1tonner, with 360,000km on the clock and a market value of $1500. No, I didn't miss a zero. Not entirely by choice, needless to say.
I hope either the EV prices drop at a rate where "those who are left behind" actually have an option to purchase a registerable vehicle...
Last year I bought an electric (battery-powered) lawnmower. It is light, quiet and does the job. I'm not going back to a petrol lawnmower. At least it's a start for me. One day I would also love to swap my diesel 4WD with about 1000km range to an EV equivalent.
Harry its nice to know at 72 you can afford a $64000 (base price) vehicle, regardless of the environmental and economics of an electric vehicle the sheer cost to acquire is beyond the pockets of most, and n large parts of Australia they are not practical at present
I am still surprised how many 200 series are driving around the suburbs. They are well over that price and by most people only used in the city.
Now that's wasting your money. But everyone to their own.
I agree the pricing is the major hurdle for now.
Harry its nice to know at 72 you can afford a $64000 (base price) vehicle, regardless of the environmental and economics of an electric vehicle the sheer cost to acquire is beyond the pockets of most, and n large parts of Australia they are not practical at present
Look Harry is doing what he can, and why not. Often decisions by retirees are based on rebalancing or
redistribution of their assets, to better support their changing goals. I see ever increasing numbers of Tesla's in my area, and in the Hunter Valley, sure some of these are day trippers out of Sydney, but many seem to be folks that have moved up this way after downsizing out of a big house in Sydney.
In freeing up cash previously tied up in property, they can afford a Tesla. Honestly it makes far more sense than buying a big 4WD and a caravan that might get used a few times before the retirees realise just how much work it is, and how costly to run. Thousands of those rigs are sitting in driveways depreciating.
My son is at me all the time to buy an EV, because my driving trips are all within the current range available, but I argue that my little 1.2L turbo is the Greenest (Euro5) vehicle I could possibly own, simply because there is no new CO2 emissions associated with its production, only its very low running emissions (100gm/km, which are among the lowest available).
At some point I will buy an EV, probably a used Nissan Leaf. As these will be reasonably cheap when they get old enough for a battery pack upgrade, and the original owners get rid of them.
The thirtyfold decrease in lithium-ion battery costs over the past three decades
The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Spectrum
Magazine featured an article three weeks ago that included a chart
based on work by Micah Ziegler Jessika Trancik and at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
It showed the dramatic drop in lithium-ion battery costs over the past three
decades (chart attached below) :-
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rahul Rao, IEEE Spectrum Magazine, 26 May 2021
Between 1991 and 2018, the average price of the batteries that power mobile phones, fuel electric cars, and underpin green energy storage fell more than thirtyfold ...
...
Batteries today, the researchers say, have mass-production scales and energy densities unthinkable 30 years ago. Economies of scale and technological improvements appear set to drive storage costs further, approaching the USD100 per kilowatt-hour threshold. At about that level, the energy costs for EVs will reach parity with those for gasoline-powered vehicles, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
Like the dramatic drop in the price of computers over decades, early
adopters paid a premium.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rahul Rao, IEEE Spectrum Magazine, 26 May 2021
Engineers and energy-policy planners benefit from knowing future battery prices, but unlike solar prices, they aren’t always readily available. Lithium-ion batteries tend to be manufactured or bought in bulk by large companies. “Those contracts aren’t necessarily public documents,” says Ziegler. That’s partly why the drivers for the price decline are, for Ziegler and Trancik, an open area of research.
Based on current trends in the chart, by 2030, it may well transpire
that those still with ICE vehicles rather than EV's will be viewed as
those who have money to burn.
"Re-examining rates of lithium-ion battery technology improvement and
cost decline" by Micah S. Ziegler and Jessika E. Trancik, Institute for Data,
Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, paper
published 12 March 2021 :- https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/arti...F#!divAbstract
American manufacturers battle for supremacy in the EV pickup truck market
Americans like their pickup trucks big and pickups rule the American road.
In a 20 May 2021 article at the Institute of Electrical and Electronics
Engineers (IEEE) Spectrum Magazine web site, Lawrence Ulrich
documents the offerings in America’s EV pickup truck battle between
the manufacturers, including Ford's F-150 Lightning, Tesla's Cybertruck,
the Electric Hummer, and more.
Thanks Gary, that IEEE Article is very informative, and importantly it highlights the looming breakeven, or tipping point approaching:
Economies of scale and technological improvements appear set to drive storage costs further, approaching the $100 per kilowatt-hour threshold. At about that level, the energy costs for EVs will reach parity with those for gasoline-powered vehicles, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
Thanks Gary, that IEEE Article is very informative, and importantly it highlights the looming breakeven, or tipping point approaching:
Economies of scale and technological improvements appear set to drive storage costs further, approaching the $100 per kilowatt-hour threshold. At about that level, the energy costs for EVs will reach parity with those for gasoline-powered vehicles, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
Thanks Glenn,
And looking at the graphs, we may already be there or perhaps within
12 to 24 months away.
When you consider the price of those battery "powerwalls" for PV storage
at home are on the same cost trajectory, it would be like having your
own oil pumpjack in the backyard.
Perhaps the day will come in the not too distant future when one still has
an ICE vehicle but struggles to find a service station to refill it before you
run out of petrol.
We supply materials into the automotive and battery market segments (displays too) and I can tell you the speed of the coming change is incredibly breathtaking.
The planned transition by the big auto makers is unlike anything I have seen before. Very technology change “S” curve stuff…(think adoption of mobile phones and related).
I am not sure people truly comprehend the likely speed and magnitude of the change coming.
While there are some situations where fossil fuels still have competitive advantage, that list is shrinking fast. Some of our own (and others) chemical recycling technologies have the potential to really alter the cost curve on reusing and replacing carbon…
If your investment horizon is longer than 15 years, be very aware of the potential cost of stranded assets in Super Fund investments…
I should add that we did jump into a Tesla Model 3 a couple of years ago and honestly my expectations were low as to how much use it would be beyond “puttering around” to the local shops etc.
It gets a lot more use than I dreamed and replaced an ICE that we had kept just in case…we let the spare go. The Tesla replaced it easily as it turns out.
The cost of ownership and use is much cheaper than the ICE that we did keep.
The other change is in mindset as to what a car is…the simple mechanical parts helped me understand the software centric nature of the future of transportation.
If you do not like how the car handles, change a software setting, want faster acceleration or firmer brakes just change the user setting (think adjusting the ring volume on your mobile phone)…it is stunning.
