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  #41  
Old 03-04-2020, 09:50 PM
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You would have to think maybe the true infection rates overseas were hugely higher than whats reported.


Flag off areas and fine everyone who enters would do it .


Asia at a second look for me understands the higher population areas are mostly stupid regarding keeping space much like we are and needed an attitude adjustment .

Last edited by GrahamL; 03-04-2020 at 10:02 PM.
  #42  
Old 03-04-2020, 10:40 PM
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Hi Peter & All,

Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Ward View Post
New case numbers in Oz continue to fall.

Looking at the cold hard numbers, two dozen deaths from COVID-19 is remarkably low. Begging the question why are Spain/Italy being hit so hard?

The Netherlands went for herd immunity with no attempt to reduce the risk
to their (younger) population. Their numbers are remarkably good...and certainly way better than Spain/Italy.

I am struggling to see how early predictions of 1.4 million cases in NSW alone will come to pass. What am I missing here?
I think the thing that is just beginning to be come apparent is that the bulk figures as to who has been infected, is very dependent upon to width of the testing regime within any nation.

In first world nations, with some some degree of variance as to the median age and quality of the health service, I think we can assume the overall mortality rate is about 1% of those infected. So, the "death" figures is a bit like a proxy for the true infection rate.

So figures of about 1000 deaths probably indicates the background rate of infection is somewhere around 100,000 -- despite the fact that many countries are reporting official confirmed infection rates a small fraction of that.

Sweden is probably a good example to compare with Australia. Similar demographic and average wealth, comparable quality of health service and number of "confirmed infections". Here confirmed 5,300 infected 28 dead. Sweden 5,500 confirmed infected, 308 dead. Their death rate appears to be about twelve times higher.

The likely difference is the width of testing practices. We know from no lesser authority than Greta Thunberg, that testing in Sweden is confined to "serious cases only". Here it is very broad (we have the highest per-capita test rate in the world) and more than 1% of the entire population has been tested so far and the rate of positives is quite low (<2%).

I think there is good reason to use the actual number of deaths within a country as a proxy for the true extent of (background) infection rates. Look at the number of deaths, add a couple of zeros and that's a clearer approximate picture of how many have it there.

One of the big differences for us here was the early travel prohibition from China -- particularly Wuhan. As for the rest of your comment, yep, I think so far the actions taken here by governments have done a good job of limiting the spread. There have been instances where blunders have occurred (Ruby Princess) but I guess that just human nature and the tendency to make a bad decision from time-to-time, irrespective of political "colour".

Even for us in Ozrtaylia, this will be a marathon effort lasting months to limit infections and the death toll. The way we're living now will be the norm for at least three months and probably somewhat longer.

When it's all over, I hope we and a lot of other nations join together to send one hell of an invoice to the government of communist China, for their initial lack of action, lies and obfuscation that led directly to this being a world-wide pandemic.

Best,

L.
  #43  
Old 04-04-2020, 08:49 AM
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Quote:
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When it's all over, I hope we and a lot of other nations join together to send one hell of an invoice to the government of communist China, for their initial lack of action, lies and obfuscation that led directly to this being a world-wide pandemic.
This pandemic has created a lot of fractures between countries and even within the EU. It brought the worst in many. When you hear about medical supplies being bought and highjacked in airports on the tarmac to the highest bidder. One prominent UK economist hinted that a new balance might be achieved in future and it will be more focused on supply chain resilience rather than lower manufacturing costs. So China might lose if people vote with their feet. Remains to be seen though.
  #44  
Old 04-04-2020, 12:22 PM
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Maybe in a month we will see results of human trials. Amazing acceleration.

We really do great work here when the funding is available to scientists

All the money in the world for finance start-ups and smooth product is not going to save you now.



Quote:
Originally Posted by multiweb View Post
  #45  
Old 04-04-2020, 01:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by multiweb View Post
This pandemic has created a lot of fractures between countries and even within the EU. It brought the worst in many. When you hear about medical supplies being bought and highjacked in airports on the tarmac to the highest bidder. One prominent UK economist hinted that a new balance might be achieved in future and it will be more focused on supply chain resilience rather than lower manufacturing costs. So China might lose if people vote with their feet. Remains to be seen though.
I'd like to think this experience will encourage or mandate manufacturing in Australia. It would improve our economy and provide us with a degree of national security. Presently we are totally at the mercy of China.
However, I also think greed and laziness will return after things settle down.
  #46  
Old 04-04-2020, 03:21 PM
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However, I also think greed and laziness will return after things settle down.

I think greed has really reared its ugly head during these times, look at the clowns hoarding stuff to the detriment of others.
  #47  
Old 07-04-2020, 06:07 PM
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Scientists step up

Read to the end. Scientists and medicine are logical about protecting everyone.

Nerds-in-chief: The rising heroes of the coronavirus era The new celebrities emerging across Europe as the coronavirus burns a deadly path through the continent are not actors or singers or politicians. http://www.smh.com.au/world/nerds-in...4hlv.html?btis
  #48  
Old 11-04-2020, 10:30 AM
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There are some worrying reports of people getting reinfected online with everything that it implies regarding immunity and potential vaccine effectiveness. Early days still.
  #49  
Old 11-04-2020, 10:56 AM
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I know I'm beginning to sound like a broken down record here, but the 2017
flu season
has to date been far worse for the Australian population.

Rough numbers, a quarter of a million infected, plus 740 deaths.
This was not the subject of constant media reporting nor was there a total wrecking of the economy.

The epi-curve of COVID-19 looks to have peaked with 6100 infected, about half recovered thus far and 50 odd deaths. Say those numbers double, still not a patch on the 2017 flu season.

There is no doubt these remarkably low figures were due to quarantine and distancing measures....but might be time to ease up he sloppy/asinine legislation that has seen even learner drivers fined for going for a drive and clearly not presenting any further infection risk to others by doing so. Similarly, I fail to see the infection risk posed by packing up the Esky, re-locating to a second rural/seaside home you may own, to
get away from urban viral-epicentres.

Last edited by Peter Ward; 11-04-2020 at 01:42 PM. Reason: clarification
  #50  
Old 11-04-2020, 11:58 AM
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What does epi-cure mean?

Greg.
  #51  
Old 11-04-2020, 12:29 PM
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I used to spin the toilet like I was on Wheel of Fortune.. !!
Now, I turn it like I'm cracking a Safe...!!

Still haven't decided where to go for Easter...The Living Room of The Bedroom

This morning I saw my Neighbor talking to her cat.
It was obvious she thought her Cat could understand her.....I came into my house ...told the dog...and we laughed a lot.

My body has absorbed so much soap and disinfectant lately that when I pee it cleans the Toilet.

I'm so excited, it's time to take out the garbage ... What should I wear.

Classified AD reads ....Single Man with Toilet Paper seeks Woman with hand sanitizer for good clean fun ...!!

Homeschooling Day 5 ....One of these little monsters called in a Bomb Threat , and 2 were suspended for fighting.

Col.
  #52  
Old 11-04-2020, 12:39 PM
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It’s all conveniently resetting the balance of trade power and global economy equalisation and reset. Wait and watch.

Besides Peter’s pointing out of the 2017 flu stats, more people died in 2019 in the US alone from flu than total globally from COVID19 so far...yet this is conveniently ignored.

Something stinks about this whole thing...and it’s all to certain advantage. I’ve never been a conspiracy theory believer, but this one has waaaaay too many holes, inconsistencies and coincidences in it. Perhaps not the virus itself (aka bioweapon) but the exploits, advantages and possibilities it created. It remains amazing how certain circles in the US call it the CCP virus (Communist Chinese Party virus) - perhaps an indication of deflection...
  #53  
Old 11-04-2020, 12:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Ward View Post
I know I'm beginning to sound like a broken down record here, but the 2017
flu season
has to date been far worse for the Australian population.

Rough numbers, a quarter of a million infected, plus 740 deaths.
This was not the subject of constant media reporting nor was there a total wrecking of the economy.

The epi-cure of COVID-19 looks to have peaked with 6100 infected, about half recovered thus far and 50 odd deaths. Say those numbers double, still not a patch on the 2017 flu season.

There is no doubt these remarkably low figures were due to quarantine and distancing measures....but might be time to ease up he sloppy/asinine legislation that has seen even learner drivers fined for going for a drive and clearly not presenting any further infection risk to others by doing so. Similarly, I fail to see the infection risk posed by packing up the Esky, re-locating to a second rural/seaside home you may own, to
get away from urban viral-epicentres.
In Italy over 100 doctors, who knows how many other health workers have died of COVID-19. During a 'regular' flu season the number would probably be close to zero. Imagine the outcry if 100 firefighters died last christmas...

The only reason we don't have so many cases in Oz is because we are social distancing. In Italy they have a complete lockdown, far stricter than here and people are still dying in the thousands every day; I agree that people are being fined for ridiculous things but I think at the moment we just have to live with the restrictions.

As far as travelling to a holiday home, some rural hospitals may have only one or two ventilators, so if everyone decided to visit how are these hospitals supposed to provide support to their local residents?

Last edited by Zuts; 11-04-2020 at 01:24 PM.
  #54  
Old 11-04-2020, 12:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LewisM View Post
Something stinks about this whole thing...
I agree...I told my Wife something is not right here...!!

A ' ' Hidden ' Agenda behind all of this are my thoughts.

Somethings going on ..!!

Just saying ...!!

Col...
  #55  
Old 11-04-2020, 01:24 PM
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Not to belittle the deaths that have occurred because of this virus but we have had far more deaths in NSW this year due to car accidents than this virus has taken in Australia but that is never mentioned. We are still doing ok so far, compared to many other countries.

Last edited by highlander2287; 11-04-2020 at 08:26 PM.
  #56  
Old 11-04-2020, 01:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gregbradley View Post
What does epi-cure mean?

Greg.
Means auto correct is a PIA...

"epi-curve"
  #57  
Old 11-04-2020, 02:57 PM
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I'm not sure where to start - there's a few messages in this thread that are simply amazing in that they've been written in the first place. If you want to talk conspiracy theories, go to your lunatics on facebook, we don't need it here.

And the persistent comparisons to other illnesses or types of deaths. Do some research just to show how wrong you've got it. Stop spouting stupid nonsense please.

A quick search for US data, gives this: "For 2016 specifically, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) data shows 37,461 people were killed in 34,436 motor vehicle crashes, an average of 102 per day." <-- Currently, the US is at nearly 2000 per day deaths due to covid-19 (total at time of writing 18K+). They will probably go well past this figure by the end of the month.

Just because we were quicker to react and put in place measures to reduce the number of deaths means we might be lucky to get under our vehicle deaths for the year. USA is an example where they won't - and this should be an alarm bell for your damn brain to realise why we are in lockdown.

And as for the flu numbers. I can't believe the comparison is still being made. Totally irrational. I wonder if these people would have been similar to those who whinged about Y2K and nothing happening? Nothing happened because we intervened and stopped it from happening, but some people are so blind they can't see that.

As for the measures in place for the "social distancing", isolation, etc - I think it's gone a bit too far, but most of that has been driven by stupid people trying to either bend the rules or ignore them thinking they know better - so we get these stupid situations where some guy trying to wash his car is hassled. Individual person might be smart, but in general people are dumb.
  #58  
Old 11-04-2020, 03:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lazjen View Post
i'm not sure where to start - there's a few messages in this thread that are simply amazing in that they've been written in the first place. If you want to talk conspiracy theories, go to your lunatics on facebook, we don't need it here.

And the persistent comparisons to other illnesses or types of deaths. Do some research just to show how wrong you've got it. Stop spouting stupid nonsense please.

A quick search for us data, gives this: "for 2016 specifically, national highway traffic safety administration (nhtsa) data shows 37,461 people were killed in 34,436 motor vehicle crashes, an average of 102 per day." <-- currently, the us is at nearly 2000 per day deaths due to covid-19 (total at time of writing 18k+). They will probably go well past this figure by the end of the month.

Just because we were quicker to react and put in place measures to reduce the number of deaths means we might be lucky to get under our vehicle deaths for the year. Usa is an example where they won't - and this should be an alarm bell for your damn brain to realise why we are in lockdown.

And as for the flu numbers. I can't believe the comparison is still being made. Totally irrational. I wonder if these people would have been similar to those who whinged about y2k and nothing happening? Nothing happened because we intervened and stopped it from happening, but some people are so blind they can't see that.

As for the measures in place for the "social distancing", isolation, etc - i think it's gone a bit too far, but most of that has been driven by stupid people trying to either bend the rules or ignore them thinking they know better - so we get these stupid situations where some guy trying to wash his car is hassled. Individual person might be smart, but in general people are dumb.
+1

Last edited by Shiraz; 11-04-2020 at 03:52 PM.
  #59  
Old 11-04-2020, 03:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Ward View Post
Means auto correct is a PIA...

"epi-curve"
Oh, thanks. When I looked it up the only definition was a person who really likes fine food and drink.

Hehehe.

Greg
  #60  
Old 11-04-2020, 03:41 PM
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Re Marc's original intention of reliable data sources, the CDC lists over 400 studies into drugs etc for treating covid19. All the way from aspirin to the exotics - lots going on and planned, so maybe something will bear fruit sooner rather than later.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=COVID-19
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