#1  
Old 08-12-2017, 06:55 PM
HarryD (Greg)
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Sydney
Posts: 148
Cloud Free Night

Hi

I would like your thoughts on a first world problem.

I am always a bit confused when checking Cloud Free Night for Sydney.

For example this coming Saturday has GFS showing no cloud, while Access shows some cloud. On Sunday GFS has cloud declining while Access has cloud increasing on the D1-3 page.
Tuesday has no cloud for GFS and increasing cloud for Access on the D3-5 day and the other previous days change somewhat.

Which is the best one to choose, GFS or Access. I know Access is based on our BMO and I am also aware that weather forecasting is still not an exact science but I would appreciate your thoughts/experience.

I know this is software/computers but clouds and astrophotography seem to go hand in hand.

Cheers

Harry
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  #2  
Old 08-12-2017, 07:53 PM
cfn
Cloud Free Night Team

cfn is offline
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 218
Quote:
Originally Posted by HarryD View Post
Hi

I would like your thoughts on a first world problem.

I am always a bit confused when checking Cloud Free Night for Sydney.

For example this coming Saturday has GFS showing no cloud, while Access shows some cloud. On Sunday GFS has cloud declining while Access has cloud increasing on the D1-3 page.
Tuesday has no cloud for GFS and increasing cloud for Access on the D3-5 day and the other previous days change somewhat.

Which is the best one to choose, GFS or Access. I know Access is based on our BMO and I am also aware that weather forecasting is still not an exact science but I would appreciate your thoughts/experience.

I know this is software/computers but clouds and astrophotography seem to go hand in hand.

Cheers

Harry
Hi Harry, the short answer would be that ACCESS gets it right more often than GFS in coastal areas. If both models diverge significantly then the certainty of the forecast is less than if they both converge to the same result. It's good to have a look at the total cloud meteogram where both models are plotted on the same graph.

You can have a look at this file for a side by side view of the two models.
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