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  #21  
Old 05-12-2019, 02:57 PM
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multiweb (Marc)
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That big one in the Central coast and Hawkesbury has flared up this arvo and it's a massive worry. The one around green wattle creek is no better. That's the one that's affecting Sydney basin mostly. It's a shocker out there today.
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  #22  
Old 05-12-2019, 03:55 PM
Wavytone
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David the native animals won’t survive, either way.
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  #23  
Old 05-12-2019, 05:27 PM
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David the native animals won’t survive, either way.
Wavy, have you been talking with Marvin again?
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  #24  
Old 05-12-2019, 06:01 PM
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Mostly when you guys down south are having good viewing tony the seasons have changed and we have rain and crappy weather up north hasnt happened yet.


Smoke haze and the terrible loss so many have had to wear seems ongoing , 70 mm of rain near the coast and some inland areas last week but the smoke is likely into its third month .
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  #25  
Old 06-12-2019, 03:52 PM
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Fore those interested here's the fire locations from the sentinel satellite overlaid on the map, updates ~ 2h cycle.

https://sentinel.ga.gov.au/#/

What's interesting:

- the fire front from Newnes stretching east to Colo is slowly marching south, moving slowly upwind. Plenty of fuel, and in that country (stone pagodas and canyons) there is no way to stop it. Mt Wilson can be defended successfully, that has been done before.

- the fire front that has developed across the south of the national park stretches from east of the road to Jenolan to Camden and has already jumped a suburban road into grasslands. This fire front is being driven north-east by the prevailing wind.

Both these fire fronts are uncontrolled, there is no hope of stopping these. The implication is they will eventually meet in the middle - roughly the Blue Mountains townships along the Great Western Highway or Bells Line of Rd.

Now zoom in on Katoomba, the fire spots south of Mt Solitary are interesting. Makes me think the RFS is burning this to create a fire break to protect the residents along the Great Western Highway. But they'll have to burn everything eastwards across to Glenbrook.

If either fires enter the Grose Valley (north) or the Megalong/Jamison valleys (southside) its basically all over for the Blue Mountains - those areas haven't had a fire in 60+ years and the fuel load on the ground will produce catastrophic fires. It will all burn to Christmas, is my guess. And we'll be drinking contaminated water.

Last edited by Wavytone; 06-12-2019 at 04:25 PM.
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  #26  
Old 06-12-2019, 04:26 PM
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At least with late summer fires there are winter rains to look forward to. The current situation looks really miserable.

The smoke from our bad fires last summer didn't disappear until we had significant rain because fuel keeps smouldering.
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  #27  
Old 07-12-2019, 08:37 AM
el_draco (Rom)
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As I said before - fires will do what should have been done previously, ie get rid of the gumtrees.
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Originally Posted by Wavytone View Post
As I said before - fires will do what should have been done previously, ie get rid of the gumtrees.
As I said to my wife this morning..., "It'll take a big ugly city like Sydney to get an uncontrollable "megablaze" through some suburbs with huge casualties and 10,000+ buildings burned to the ground before ignorant people decide to study a bit of Ecology and stop talking out their bums.

Before you spout crap about how "un-australian" I am, and this is just more "greenie" speak, I should add:

1/ My brother is a fiery and he's trying to control the "megablaze" outside a big ugly city in N.S.W. at the moment; putting his life on the line to protect ignoramuses who deny Scientific reality.

2/ I've fought enough bush fires to know the real cause isn't inner city "greenies" as the ruling "richard craniums" and their drones B.S. on about and..

3/ ... I teach Ecology, so I guess I know a little bit more about whats going on than the average drone that seems to increasingly dominate the population of this country.

Wake up!!! Mega fires are the NEW NORMAL and you AIN'T SEEN NOTHING YET.

...and if the Mods don't like this post, perhaps they should delete your drivel as well.
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  #28  
Old 08-12-2019, 08:36 PM
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Yeah, the severity of this season is pretty much nothing to do with hazard reduction (that's a dangerous political distraction). We've had the hottest and driest preceding conditions on record in NSW (we know the physics of why that is the case), coupled with fire-friendly weather patterns during the first part of this fire season (which has a side-effect of below-average conditions in VIC and grumpy slightly chilly Victorians). But I'd rather have Victoria's weather than the thick smoke and burnt leaves falling out the sky like we had last week.

The first attached image is by scientist Robert Rohde, and neatly highlights our heating and drying NSW climate over the decades (animation here), and where some bad fire seasons sit. 2019 is pretty extreme, but in terms of heat, will be pretty normal in a couple of decades. The second compares fuel moisture this year to some extreme fire years.
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  #29  
Old 09-12-2019, 10:09 AM
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Yeah, the severity of this season is pretty much nothing to do with hazard reduction (that's a dangerous political distraction). We've had the hottest and driest preceding conditions on record in NSW (we know the physics of why that is the case), coupled with fire-friendly weather patterns during the first part of this fire season (which has a side-effect of below-average conditions in VIC and grumpy slightly chilly Victorians). But I'd rather have Victoria's weather than the thick smoke and burnt leaves falling out the sky like we had last week.

The first attached image is by scientist Robert Rohde, and neatly highlights our heating and drying NSW climate over the decades (animation here), and where some bad fire seasons sit. 2019 is pretty extreme, but in terms of heat, will be pretty normal in a couple of decades. The second compares fuel moisture this year to some extreme fire years.



In this regard it's worth mentioning that there is a lot of research being done into bushfires. At Uni of Wollongong we have had the Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires (CERMB) for many years (headed by Prof Ross Bradstock, who is cited in the second diagram above). The NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub is hosted by CERMB. Last week the Australian Research Council announced the recipients of this years Discovery Grants and bushfire research is part of several grants that I have seen.


University of Tasmania
Professor David Bowman (DP200102395)
Does fire control vegetation in the Tasmanian World Heritage Area?
Aims: This project aims to discriminate between competing explanations for vegetation patterns in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area: (a) fire (the legacy of Aboriginal burning), or (b) soil. We will do this through a novel, transdisciplinary research program. Significance: The project expects to create new knowledge essential for achieving evidence-based fire management, as well as to advance a globally important ecological theory. Outcomes: Expected outcomes include significantly strengthened fire science and fire management capacity in Tasmania. Benefit: Benefits should include the protection of globally significant cultural, biological and landscape values that sustain the vibrant Tasmanian tourist economy. Funding: $321,000.00


The University of New South Wales
Professor Andrew Baker; Dr Pauline Treble (DP200100203)
Reconstructing Australia’s fire history from cave stalagmites.
Fire represents a major natural hazard, and its impact on Australian communities and ecosystems is increasing. Representing a world first, this project aims to calibrate the paleofire signal from stalagmites in shallow caves, and to construct annually resolved stalagmite records of paleofire frequency and intensity for the last millennia. The project aims to use stalagmites from south west Australia to determine the relationship between fire and climate and assess the robustness of stalagmite hydroclimate proxies in fire-prone regions. This project expects to establish a new research field for speleothem science, enhancing capacity for the Australian Quaternary and speleothem research communities, as well as benefits to land managers. Funding: $472,000.00


University of Wollongong
Associate Professor Anthony Dosseto; Associate Professor Scott Mooney; Professor Ross Bradstock; Dr Damien Lemarchand; Dr Nathalie Vigier (DP200101123)
Shaping a sunburnt country: fire, climate and the Australian landscape.
Fire shapes Australia’s landscape, biodiversity and resources. This project aims to quantify the recent history of fire intensity and severity using several novel proxies in the fire-prone landscapes of south-eastern Australia. Calibration of these new proxies to recent wildfires will be used for a better characterisation of fire regimes. This research will be applied to sedimentary archives to investigate how fire regimes have evolved over the past 100 years. The outcomes will inform debates about the relationship between climatic variability and fire severity, and this will contribute to increase the preparedness of natural resource management to potential future climate and land-use scenarios. Funding: $379,000.00
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  #30  
Old 09-12-2019, 10:56 AM
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alan meehan (Alan)
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I was in the RFS for 15yrs in old bar ive seen bushfires start in all types of conditions ,lightning being one seen that personally with a tree exploding 50ft from me ,glass left in the bush on a hot day and the right sun on it up she goes ,burnt out stolen or dumped cars that some idiot sets on fire we see heaps of these on the side of the expressway up hear in Newcastle ,illegal backburning ,backyard bbqs ,just a car driving down a dirt track with a hot exhaust ,cigarette butts when a small fire starts in these hot dry conditions it takes 5 mim to start spreading a fire truck is called depending
on where it has to come from gets there and you have a real fire on your hands real fast ,fires can start weeks after wards if not put out right tree roots underground burn for ages and can surface anywhere ,iam too old to go fight a fire nowdays it takes it out of you you ,the government is always short cutting equipment for the rfs you want to blam anyone they do not help people suffer ,bless the guys that do a unbelievable job fighting these monster fires
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  #31  
Old 17-12-2019, 02:53 PM
Oddity (Andrew)
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Made this comment elsewhere but it's probably more applicable here

With regards to inability to observe, looking at the forecast, I'm wondering if this Thursday could be a rare possibility for observing in Sydney for the first time in a long time (and possibly the last time for a long time)? Though there will be residual heat from earlier in the day, if we're lucky and the forecast holds up then the wind looks to change to SSE which could knock a little bit of the smoke and heat away but still remain mostly clear of cloud (previous cool changes that blew some of the smoke away have also brought cloud with it... this one might not).

Moonrise isn't until 1:30am so that's OK too.

I hold out a lot less hope for Saturday as if the forecast holds up the wind will be WSW blowing smoke straight in, followed by a rather thick and cloudy cool change.
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  #32  
Old 17-12-2019, 07:06 PM
Wavytone
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Shock... it's looking passable here. And it's not stinking hot, nor a howling gale.

Thursday will be stinking hot which will probably stoke the fires again, followed by a gusty change in the evening, ie windy and cloudy; seeing will be terrible as a result.
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  #33  
Old 17-12-2019, 07:36 PM
Startrek (Martin)
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Arrived down at my weekender near Ulladulla this arvo for a few days to do some odd jobs and conditions look good at the moment , very light northeaster , some scattered high cloud and more importantly no smoke
It’s been a year since I imaged M42 so here hoping I might be lucky tonight , moon doesn’t break the horizon until just after midnight
Just finished setting up the 8” f5 now ( takes me 2.5 hours )
Anyone else imaging or observing tonight in NSW ??
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  #34  
Old 17-12-2019, 09:24 PM
Oddity (Andrew)
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Thursday will be stinking hot which will probably stoke the fires again, followed by a gusty change in the evening, ie windy and cloudy; seeing will be terrible as a result.
I would not write it off; the forecast still looks promising. Look much more closely; there is no cloud forecast for Thursday evening. The change will be 24km/h w/ 44km gusts, not great but not the worst, and the main thing is it will be SSE so not from the smoke.

Sure seeing's not gonna be great but in this month when is it!? I'm not expecting to split stars (which I don't have the slightest interest in doing) or view planets. Beggars can't be choosers and DSOs should do just fine.

Tonight on the other hand is rubbish where I am - lots of high cloud and some smoke. And every other day forecast for the foreseeable future has no chance; I still think there's a chance Thursday may be the best chance in a while - if you can put up with heat haze and a little wind.

Last edited by Oddity; 17-12-2019 at 09:38 PM.
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  #35  
Old 17-12-2019, 09:37 PM
Wavytone
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Sky is still very very bright here. Managed to barely glimpse Comet BlanPain below Neptune using my 70mm refractor at 50X. Packed it in soon after.

SSE spells cloud where I am (too close to the coast). Maybe OK if you're inland.
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  #36  
Old 17-12-2019, 10:35 PM
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mental4astro (Alexander)
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With this break in the smoke haze here in Sydney tonight I managed to pin my first asteroid, Vesta! Easy to spot the mag 7 asteroid from my backyard in a 100mm achro, and star hopping. I've only been involved in astro for some 36 years, and I am still experiencing firsts!

Thank goodness for small mercies... Haven't done anything with my scopes other than a bit of maintenance for a couple of months now.

Alex.
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  #37  
Old 19-12-2019, 08:50 AM
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I would not write it off; the forecast still looks promising. Look much more closely; there is no cloud forecast for Thursday evening. The change will be 24km/h w/ 44km gusts, not great but not the worst, and the main thing is it will be SSE so not from the smoke.

Sure seeing's not gonna be great but in this month when is it!? I'm not expecting to split stars (which I don't have the slightest interest in doing) or view planets. Beggars can't be choosers and DSOs should do just fine.

Tonight on the other hand is rubbish where I am - lots of high cloud and some smoke. And every other day forecast for the foreseeable future has no chance; I still think there's a chance Thursday may be the best chance in a while - if you can put up with heat haze and a little wind.

Andrew, I admire your enthusiasm. At this time of year this astronomer tends to hibernate; I couldn't take the late nights and then go to work. However, don't expect the sea breeze to clear the smoke. There is masses smoke sitting off-shore and the first air to come with the change will have come from down this way, where the visibility is about 1-1.5km.
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  #38  
Old 21-12-2019, 05:16 AM
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Looks like long term forecast says some rain will come.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outloo.../75/seasonal/0


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outloo...rview/summary/


The Indian Ocean Dipole is very early this summer.



But, obviously, this is just a would-be scenario.
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  #39  
Old 21-12-2019, 03:41 PM
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The sun today from central coast NSW at 16:00
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  #40  
Old 21-12-2019, 03:42 PM
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From my phone camera
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