Solar Power

[PCH (Paul)]

In pommie-land, ever since all the services were privatised years ago, the costs of electricity, gas and water all went up astronomically. They now have some of the dearest costs of essential services in Europe, - AND they're mostly owned by European businesses. Imagine that - the French or Russians owning your water or electricity when relations start to go downhill a bit for whatever reason

Privatisation of essential services is the absolute WORST thing that can happen imho.

Why our governments here can't just take a look at what's happened there, and decide that that is not what we want here, is beyond me.

Just my 2c

Originally Posted by Exfso

The thing that really gets up my nose is the disparity between states of the cost of electricity in C/kwh. I am pretty sure we here in SA pay at least 8-10c/kwh more than people in Victoria, cant comment on NSW or Qld. I know our govt here keeps saying it is for cost of infrastructure, but surely other states have these costs as well. It really all turned pear shaped when everything here was privatised, that was the greatest croc sold to the ratepayers I have ever seen. We were told that everything would be cheaper when privatised, not bloody likely, the cost of Electricity has well and truly doubled since that happened, likewise, water and gas. Being a cynic, I put it down to plain and simple greed on the part of the big corporations that now control these things.
I have just looked at my power bill for the same period 2 yrs ago and for the first 300kwh I was charged 17.93c/kwh then 18.26/kwh for the next 700kwh, then 21.4c/kwh after that. Now 2 yrs later the cost for the 1st 1200kwh is 28.6c/kwh and 31.2c/kwh for the next 2800kwh. This is roughly a 40% increase in 2 years far above the CPI, it is no wonder people are getting miffed. My average quarterly useage was around 1800kw so my bill would have been around $530 plus the supply fee and GST would add another 10%. Now I have my system exporting around 1600kw-1800kw and I am only using around 800kw, so it is definitely paying for itself. They have to send me a cheque for around $600/quarter. Obviously this will drop as the cost of imported power continues to rise.

[PCH (Paul)]

Crikey Steve,

and that was almost 100 years ago. Poor old Henry would be turning in his grave if he could see how that industry has been decimated worldwide by contemptible, greedy individuals without a single thought for the good of anything but lining their own pockets. A profound thought indeed (his, - not mine!)

Originally Posted by kinetic

“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”
― Henry Ford

[Hagar (Doug)]

Originally Posted by clive milne

I'm struggling to reconcile how the feed in tariff for solar can possibly account for such a significant increase... PV's contribute only 1% of the total grid capacity. How can they possibly leverage a 20 or 30% increase in the cost of electricity? If the power companies are making this claim, it sounds highly dubious to me.

http://decarbonisesa.files.wordpress...-source-sa.png

There really isn't a lot to struggle with. I did say partly and at no point tried to account for the full increase. The facts are that any system implemented by an electricity retailer requires not only the cost of the electricity purchased but also a huge number of staff to organise, regulate, oversee and generally manage the buy back program. Oh I almost forgot, make a good profit on each step of the process.


Not sure I agree with this.
Let's say a 1.5kW system is installed in Adelaide which has a solar insolation rate of 4.2kWh/m^2 per day and it costs you $2K. This will knock somewhere between $400 and $600 off your power bill per year depending on your usage patterns. The payback period is around 5 years. If you tack the cost on to your home loan, your mortgage goes up $150 dollars a year and your power bill goes down $500... do the maths.
More importantly though, by putting a 1.5kW system on your roof, you are cutting your green house gas emissions by more than 2 tonnes every year. Solar PV's are still a good deal, just not as good as they once were.

OK lets throw some figures around:
SA you would expect 6.045KWhrs per day with a 1.5KW system and this assumes a perfect setup with the panels being good quality, facing the right way and at the right angle for the time of year. Some manual adjustment may be required between months throughout the year.
Based on these figures and over a billing period of 90 days you could possibly expect 544KWHrs. pricing this at 0.25c ? kwh this equates to $108 / billing cycle.
If you take the $2000 purchase price and add it to your mortgage for a home over a 25 year pay back period it will increase the repayments by around $13 per month for 25 years and suddenly your $2000 commitment is now $3900, almost double. Do the math. 25 years at $150 per year
Suddenly it has become a lifetime venture.
2 Tonns of gas $46 if you can believe the powers that be but I am sure this cost will increase as well.

Following an installation like this you may just make it pay by the time the system is stuffed and needs replacement. Even then 20+ year warranties are only as good as the company who installed the system. If your installer/ manufacturer go broke after 10 years thats all the warrenty you get.


Solar hot water systems are a great idea, but there are other ways to spend your money which offer an even better financial return. Top of the list would be to solicit the services of an energy auditor to give your house (and lifestyle) the once over. Speaking as someone who did this for a living, I can assure you that this offers the best return on investment you can make by a country mile.
No need, my energy prvider provides this as a free service. But alas I still need to implement the advice. Some new whitegoods, some building repairs and modifications. Just hope my mortgage has elastic sides.

Sorry to put it this way Clive and please don't get upset I am not having a go at you but the reality is that with the reduction in the feed in tarrif the incentive to install a system has all but gone and with future increases in the cost of electricity further chewing at feed in tarrif the incentives are reducing almost daily.

Red remarks are mine.

[clive milne]

Originally Posted by Hagar

There really isn't a lot to struggle with. I did say partly and at no point tried to account for the full increase. The facts are that any system implemented by an electricity retailer requires not only the cost of the electricity purchased but also a huge number of staff to organise, regulate, oversee and generally manage the buy back program. Oh I almost forgot, make a good profit on each step of the process.

Seriously Doug... At a stretch you could maybe sell me the idea that the management of solar is incompetent to the extent that it would require a 5% tariff increase (and that would basically mean $1 per kWh added) But 50%? that is equivalent to $10 a kWh! Or $20,000 per installation per year.

Originally Posted by Hagar

SA you would expect 6.045KWhrs per day with a 1.5KW system and this assumes a perfect setup with the panels being good quality, facing the right way and at the right angle for the time of year. Some manual adjustment may be required between months throughout the year.

Actually, the benefit of tilting the panels throughout the year is only a few percent of total output, certainly not worth the effort and not statistically significant. (Cosine of 23 degrees is 0.92... that is worst case. Most of the year it is better than 97% efficiency ~ 15 degrees of tilt)

Originally Posted by Hagar

Based on these figures and over a billing period of 90 days you could possibly expect 544KWHrs. pricing this at 0.25c ? kwh this equates to $108 / billing cycle.
If you take the $2000 purchase price and add it to your mortgage for a home over a 25 year pay back period it will increase the repayments by around $13 per month for 25 years and suddenly your $2000 commitment is now $3900, almost double. Do the math. 25 years at $150 per year.

So if we agree that the long term cost is $4K, let's talk net return over the same period (25 years)
If we take your figures as a starting point (I think that they are a little bit pessimistic, but I wont argue) I'll just run them and see what comes out of the spread sheet.
Plugging in the parameters you gave above, ie)
tariff = $0.25
solar insolation rate = 4.03kWh/m^2
system size = 1.5kW
Let's assume the tariff increase drops to less than half it's current rate and roughly tracks 5% for the next 25 years.

With zero up front costs, the system will return (or save you) $22,869 (minus the $4K you spent servicing the loan over that period)

At a starting point of $0.25 and a 6% p/a tariff increase, the return is $25,941
At 7% the return is $29,496
8% : $33,612
9% : $38,381
10% : $43,906

If we assume the case of someone who actually uses the power directly from their PV's, the starting point is more like $0.30 per unit in Adelaide, in which case the savings you can expect fall out like so:
5% per anum energy price increase: energy savings over 25 years = $27,443
6% : $31,129
7% : $39,395
8% : $40,335
9% : $46,057
10% : $52,688

fwiw) The $52K return figure is conservative to the extent that it assume that the cost of energy will follow a similar inflationary pattern to the one we have experienced over the last 3 or 4 years. To speculate future trends, consideration needs to be given to the pressures being brought to bear on the worlds energy markets. The prognosis isn't rosy.

Incidentally, I think the insolation rate you quoted might have a compensation for declination drift. From memory, the CSIRO figure which compensates for clouds, etc, is closer to 4.20kW/h in your area.

best,
~c

[clive milne]

Incidentally, the spreadsheet is here and has unrestricted access to all cell values..
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...Eb0d3Mnc#gid=0

I will leave it as such so anyone who feels inclined can change cpi(H3), tariff(C3), system size(G3) or insolation rates(F3). I do so on the understanding that nothing stupid is done with it... If you do play with it, please only modify the values in the cells H3, C3, G3 & F3 then return them to the original values after you have finished with it.

cheers,
~c

[clive milne]

<edit> just realised I made a mistake in the above calculations...
I stopped at line 25 in the spreadsheet instead of year 25.

The spreadsheet has been corrected, but I don't have the energy to edit the numbers in the post above at this hour of the night.

~c

[Hagar (Doug)]

Just a quick look at your spread sheet Clive but it seeems dynamically flawed in that the figures quoted are for a saving based on these figures when in effect it is a loss.
To incurr the gains you are elluding to you would need to be home during the daylight hours and use all he energy generated.
Column D of the spread sheet is the cost to purchase electricity, while the feed in tarrif is a static gazetted figure with no room to move in any direction other than down. The NSW Gov has made an effort to retrospectively reduce the the feed in tarrif for all customers but at least fell on the sword and elected to keep it as was for existing customers.

With feed in tarrifs equalling or below the purchase price of retail electricity the only saving equal to the retail price is by using the power as it is generated.
Any other method shows a reduction of return when based against a rising electricity market.

The figures I quoted for SA is based on http://www.silexsolar.com/documents/CEC_booklet_1.pdf This possibly does include the losses for tilt and trim. It does assume all systems are the same and this is not the case as a can be shown when testing systems and losses based on individual location etc.

[clive milne]

Doug, the spreadsheet isn't flawed. You may disagree with the starting point figures, although I did try and be fair and so I used what I thought were your own numbers, ie) insolation rate of 4.03, system size of 1.5kW and an averaged feed in tariff of $0.25 I thought $0.25 was actually pretty reasonable and that it assumed most people would be home on weekends, do laundry in daylight hours, have some amount of base power draw from things like fridges, have kids home after school and over summer etc). In the examples I gave, I clearly stated all the assumptions, and left the spreadsheet open specifically so that the initial dynamical model could be changed to any parameters that are deemed fair.

Anyway, I'll run a few more examples and see what we get.
First one makes the assumption that we have a contract for a feed in tariff of 16c per kWh and that we offset none of our own energy use with our PV's. This would require being away from the house 365 days a year during daylight hours, and tripping all your ELCB's as you walk out the door each morning.
After 11.33 years, the feed in tariff could drop to zero and you would have already collected enough cash back from the system to pay for the mortgage increase over the full 25 years. If you put all the power rebate back in to your mortgage, the tariff only has to operating for 7 years for you to get your money back. If the feed in tariff is locked in for 25 years, you will receive back $8,832... basically a $5K profit for zero outlay.

Second hypothetical situation assumes that the feed in tariff drops to zero tomorrow. The only return from your panels is offsetting draw from the grid while you are home on weekends during daylight hours. You work 9-5, have no kids (trip your breakers when you are not home) have 4 weeks holiday per year with no seasonal bias, and have an additional 10 days per year at home due to public holidays or sickness. That works out to 135 days per year when you are offsetting power from the grid during daylight hours, at lets say $0.30 per kWh. We will also make the assumption that electricity only goes up by 5% per annum for the next 25 years.
To try that yourself;
set C3 to $0.30 & G3 to 0.555 kWh

Your reduction in energy costs over 25 years is $11,697.
This is a bit over $7.5k net reduction in your outgoings for zero capital outlay.

Even if you don't get a feed in tariff, solar is going to be cash flow positive for 99.9% of the population. You would have to have extreme circumstances and/or a highly unusual lifestyle for it not to be.

Speaking globally now, there is also a cost incurred by avoiding the uptake of renewable energy which does not appear on your balance sheet. Expect to pay more tax like the $6B wiped off our economy spent repairing the damage from last years floods. Also expect to pay more tax as a result of accommodating some of the (anticipated) 200,000,000 climate refugees that come knocking on our door over the coming decades. Also expect the cost of your basic grocery bill to go up as competition increases for the dwindling sources of arable land.

The cost of decarbonising our economy is chump change compared to the costs we are deferring to our children and grandchildren's generations. Why anyone would not go solar when it is offered at a profit is beyond me.

[Hagar (Doug)]

Your figures look good Clive , I'll give you that but when you take into account thefact that thecurrent feed in tarrifsare only stamped in law until 2024 thats only 12 years. Having a sceptical view of our governments and their trusted nature and performance it makes it very hard to see a real or imagined return on investment. Our privatised electricity companies have a history of increases more like 10 to 20% per year rather than the 5% you speak of. Maybe WA has a better reputation on pricing, I don't know.
I do kow that our companies will never let you get square let alone make money on your investment unless legislation ties them down and the goverments reputation ismuch the same.

A for your global statements abou climate change and decarbonising the world. My position and I repeat my position, Hogwash. Another great excuse for a tax increase.

[clive milne]

Originally Posted by Hagar

A for your global statements abou climate change and decarbonising the world. My position and I repeat my position, Hogwash. .

Care to elaborate why you think global climate change isn't a real concern? Do you have information to quote that could change my contrary perspective?

[Hagar (Doug)]

Originally Posted by clive milne

Care to elaborate why you think global climate change isn't a real concern? Do you have information to quote that could change my contrary perspective?

I am affraid tht discussion will have to wait Clive. This forum will not stand another long and protracted discussion on climate change and I have been wrapped over the knuckle for this one before.

Lets just say that your experts disagree with my experts who disagree with yourexperts who disagree with my experts and on it goes.

Sadly or happily, which ever way you look t it the only diefinitive proof either way will never happen or will be the end of us all.

If he scientists can't agree what hope do we have. One thing at least it is a great excuse for another Tax.

[jenchris (Jennifer)]

Fact is, the power companies have bought up all the patents on alternative energy machines and will not release then while the carbon molecule drives our economy.

Tesla was murdered for designing a free energy machine - nice people...

Climate change? Australia can change nothing. Only if China and India change will we get a chance to lower CO2 levels - and they are not going to play - of that you can be sure. Ah so - my goodness.

[Hagar (Doug)]

Sorry to reserect this thread but the actions of the day (Government cutting the solar hot water rebate without notice) have to make everyone considering solar as a viable alternative very questionable.
It also seems to make a joke out of the carbon tax which I, obviously missunderstood, to be for this sort of scheme and also inovation in alternatives.

When the dust settles it might be hard to get anyone to invest in alternatives when the government itself is not prepared to stand behind its own schemes and honour a committment unless it involves getting further tax revenue.

[Allan_L (Allan)]

Originally Posted by Hagar

Sorry to reserect this thread but the actions of the day (Government cutting the solar hot water rebate without notice) have to make everyone considering solar as a viable alternative very questionable.
It also seems to make a joke out of the carbon tax which I, obviously missunderstood, to be for this sort of scheme and also inovation in alternatives.

When the dust settles it might be hard to get anyone to invest in alternatives when the government itself is not prepared to stand behind its own schemes and honour a committment unless it involves getting further tax revenue.

Well said Doug.
It surprises me too, when a Government comes up with an alternative to fossil fuel, then "cans" it because it became too Popular !!!
(I just retired from the Electricity Sector, and what has been happening that we cannot comment on, has sickened me)

[Scopie (Brad)]

Originally Posted by jenchris

Tesla was murdered for designing a free energy machine - nice people...

Eh? I've read a lot about Tesla, but "free energy machine" and murder didn't come into it - unless you are speaking figuratively.

[DavidTrap (David)]

Originally Posted by Scopie

Eh? I've read a lot about Tesla, but "free energy machine" and murder didn't come into it - unless you are speaking figuratively.

"Free energy machine", reminds me of the Simpsons episode when Lisa builds a perpetual motion machine. Homer then declares, "In this house we obey the laws of thermodynamics!"

DT

[FlashDrive (Poppy)]

On the news tonight .... Federal Government has cancelled the ' solar rebate' on Solar Hot Water Systems ....IMMEDIATELY.

It was supposed to run for another 4 months.

What a bunch of wankers .... they push the ' green ' wheelbarrow and alternative energy bandwagon in our face ... then do this.

It's going to cost another $1000.00 to go solar now on a Hot Water System.

What a bunch of ' hypocrites ' ... and let's introduce a ' carbon tax ' to boot.

Grrrrrr !!!! ... makes you mad when ' pollies' are a bunch of ' indian givers '

Glad I got mine done when I did ..!!!

You just cannot trust a word they say ...!!!

Flash.

[Stardrifter_WA]

Originally Posted by FlashDrive

On the news tonight .... Federal Government has cancelled the ' solar rebate' on Solar Hot Water Systems ....IMMEDIATELY.

It was supposed to run for another 4 months.

What a bunch of wankers .... they push the ' green ' wheelbarrow and alternative energy bandwagon in our face ... then do this.

It's going to cost another $1000.00 to go solar now on a Hot Water System.

What a bunch of ' hypocrites ' ... and let's introduce a ' carbon tax ' to boot.

Grrrrrr !!!! ... makes you mad when ' pollies' are a bunch of ' indian givers '

Glad I got mine done when I did ..!!!

You just cannot trust a word they say ...!!!

Flash.

True that Colin. Take from Australians so that they can pay their United Nations obligations which are costing billions. Oh well, can't say more than that, too politically charged and that is a no no here

[brian nordstrom (As avatar)]

They hoist a CARBON TAX!!!! on us and take this away with both hands ,, This Government has to go before it all gone !!!!
The kevin Cruddy smoke screen worked , or what ? ...this was done after midnight !!
I seen this carp happen in NZ 10 years ago , its the begining of the end ..
Makes me very ANGRY..
Brian

[Hagar (Doug)]

It is an interesting fact that the government are now blaming the large uptake of solar hot water for the removal of this subsidy. I thought that was the idea in the whole thing. Governments of every party do some pretty strange things but in the end they are nothing more than smoke and mirrors to get them re-elected in time.

This government seems to think that a budget surplus is all that matters so by 2013 the taxes imposed and the cost cutting measures will have all but crippled the country and removed the incentive to work.

New costs imposed on my salary this year include a tax to rebuild Queensland after the floods, what happened to Victoria after the floods here, absolutely nothing, we had our infrastructure insured. How much of this money will hit poor Queensland?
Next year a carbon tax.

You have to remember I can afford all these taxes andhave to carry the country until it no longer becomes viable for me to work 70+ hours a week and revert to a basic job with no stress or responsibility and a pay packet which is only maginally less than that which I take home now.

Come on Australia, wake up, This is not a communist state where we all get the same. That didn't work anyway.