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Old 03-10-2019, 09:19 PM
gary
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Modelling: India-Pakistan nuclear war could kill millions, threaten global starvation

In a paper published 2 Oct 2019 in Science Advances, the journal
of the American Association or Advancement in Science (AAAS),
researchers at the University of Colorado have attempted to model
the consequences of nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toon et. al
Abstract

Pakistan and India may have 400 to 500 nuclear weapons by 2025 with yields from tested 12- to 45-kt values to a few hundred kilotons.

If India uses 100 strategic weapons to attack urban centers and Pakistan uses 150, fatalities could reach 50 to 125 million people, and nuclear-ignited fires could release 16 to 36 Tg of black carbon in smoke, depending on yield.

The smoke will rise into the upper troposphere, be self-lofted into the stratosphere, and spread globally within weeks.

Surface sunlight will decline by 20 to 35%, cooling the global surface by 2° to 5°C and reducing precipitation by 15 to 30%, with larger regional impacts.

Recovery takes more than 10 years.

Net primary productivity declines 15 to 30% on land and 5 to 15% in oceans threatening mass starvation and additional worldwide collateral fatalities.
Press release here :-
https://www.colorado.edu/today/nuclear-war

Paper here :-
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/10/eaay5478
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Old 04-10-2019, 12:24 PM
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AndyG (Andy)
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Thankyou Gary,

I'm going to take this paper to another forum for some detailed discussion. I'm curious to see what else we get from this.

Always appreciate "Science news - curated by Gary"
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Old 14-10-2019, 07:42 PM
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Sunfish (Ray)
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Thanks again Gary . I have to agree. Science curated by Gary is definitely the highlight of science in this forum. Although this particular study seems pretty grim reading.
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Old 14-10-2019, 10:27 PM
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sn1987a (Barry)
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Even worse is the effect it will have on seeing
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