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Old 06-03-2013, 09:55 AM
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Robh (Rob)
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Blue Mountains, Australia
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Hi Guys,

I'm inclined to think the chances of a hit is very small. Space is big.
Even if you take the projected bypass distance as roughly 100,000km and the radius of Mars as 3,400km the likelihood of a purely random hit would be about (3,400/100,000)^2 or roughly 1 in 865 as the error radius is 100,000km.
Of course, the chances of impact is not purely random as there would be certain confidence levels built into the calculated trajectory and these will build over time.

If the path of the comet is, as suggested in an earlier post, to be more or less normal to Mar's orbit the likelihood of Mars inflecting the comet, in my opinion, is pretty much zilch.

Regards, Rob
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