A press release by the Université de Montréal in Canada today announces a
finding that the Homunculus is rapidly becoming obscured by the brightening
of Eta Carina, so much so that perhaps within a decade, and almost certainly
by 2036, it will be difficult to see.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Université de Montréal
A team of 17 researchers led by Brazilian astronomer Augusto Damineli, with input from Université de Montréal's Anthony Moffatt, believe that the increasing brightness of Eta Carinae is not intrinsic to the star itself, as is commonly believed. In fact, it is likely caused by the dissipation of a dust cloud positioned exactly in front of it as seen from the Earth.
This cloud, the researchers posit in a new study in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, completely shrouds the star and its winds, blotting out much of its light emanating towards Earth. The surrounding Homunculus, by contrast, can be seen directly because it is 200 times larger than the obscuring cloudlet and its brightness is thus almost unaffected.
In 2032 (with an uncertainty of plus or minus four years), the dusty cloud will have dissipated, so that the brightness of the central star will no longer increase and the Homunculus will be lost in its glare, the research team believes.
And that will provide an opportunity for deeper study of Eta Carinae itself, even showing that it is not one, but in fact two, stars.
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I guess we've been lucky to live through a time to have seen it and it
is what it is, but from an observational point of view it will be sad to
see it become obscured.
But one day there are those, perhaps even us, who might witness Eta
Carina going supernova which would be quite a show.
Press Release :-
https://nouvelles.umontreal.ca/en/ar...the-night-sky/
"Distinguishing Circumstellar from Stellar Photometric Variability in Eta Carinae" by Augusto Damineli et. al. abstract :-
https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.00531
Full paper (free, pdf) :-
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.00531.pdf