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*if* Canon ever release a 5DIII with the new 1DX sensor, there's not much to indicate that the real low-light performance will be significantly better than the 5DII. the pixels are just slightly bigger so a very small gain there.. but main improvement will be software algorithms etc which you can do in post-processing of a RAW file from any camera. that's the main reason high ISO performance looks better than earlier models.
i did a test the other day of a friend's 5D original vs my 5DII. at ISO1600 and ISO3200, her original 5D showed less random (shot) noise than my 5DII. not surprising really as the pixels are much bigger. it had more hot pixels but that can be easily taken care of with dark frames, and the 5D has amp glow in the corner which is a bummer.. other than that pixel size rules as it has to.
5DII increased fill factor, so some real gain there but i don't believe there's much more that can be gained in a theoretical sense. sensors have pretty much maxed out what can be done in terms of converting photons to electrons, so you can predict real low-light performance as soon as you know what megapixel count they choose.
what would get me really excited is if canon chose to release a full-frame camera with ~10 megapixels, like the Nikon D3/D700. anything with more pixels than the 5DII doesn't get me excited at all for low light work, except that the second-hand market will look attractive for those wanting 5DIIs!
Phil
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