Quote:
Originally Posted by SimmoW
Thanks Gary. So now climate change is making things even weirder? Not good. But as you say,
Might lessen the impact for AP! Even better once the trees are burned down  |
Hi Simmon,
You are most welcome.
When I first saw the headline a week ago that a La Niņa event was looking
probable, I had also initially assumed that it would mean more rain.
But I was surprised to read that it is unlikely to be true this time around.
There is an analogous sea-surface temperate phenomena to the Pacific
El Niņo–Southern Oscillation (ESNO) in the Indian Ocean called the
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
Back in 2010-2012 we had a very strong La Niņa. April 2010 to March
2012 was Australia's wettest two-year period on record. You will recollect
the severe flooding in parts of Qld, NSW & Vic in Jan 2012.
When the IOD is in-phase with the ESNO, we can get severe El Niņo
and La Niņa events.
Currently, however, the IOD remains neutral.
However, as the BOM reports, "to the south of the traditional Indian Ocean
Dipole regions, cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the eastern
Indian Ocean may be limiting the feed of moisture over Australia, and
opposing more typical La Niņa influences".
The not so good news - the one you have when wearing your bushfire hat -
was illustrated in a graphic I saw on the weather report on ABC News 24 this
morning.
It showed increased bushfire risk for the southern half of Australia for this
season.
After an abnormally dry spring, it doesn't look as if this La Niņa will be of
much help in bringing much needed rain.
Without much needed rain, come the next El Niņo, circumstances might
become even more dangerous and more challenging.
As you mention, the effects of climate change and its trend of warming
the world's oceans is not going to play out well on the current trajectory.