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There is little doubt that some form of non-fossil fuel vehicle is going to be the norm within a generation or two. Whether these various forms will realise the green dreams that are touted about for them is yet to be seen.
However, it should be borne in mind that Australia is a major (if not THE major) exporter of coal and gas and if "all proposed fossil fuel developments went ahead, including Adani’s Carmichael mine, other proposed coal developments in the Galilee Basin and liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects in Western Australia, and other countries adopted policies consistent with the Paris agreement, Australia could be linked to up to 17% of carbon pollution." (The Guardian 8 July, 2019). We are clearly not on any fast track to a fossil-free future either at home or abroad any time soon. So I expect we will see a significant proportion of motor vehicles burning fossil fuels for many more generations than that.
Other factors impacting on the future pathway include the looming trade wars that will potentially limit western access to the rare earths needed for magnets and batteries. And of course, the development of different fuel and storage technologies can't be seen clearly but it is certain there will be a lot of attention to both as we go forward.
I don't intend to be an early adopter of electric cars. I acknowledge the sexy attractions of a nice shiny Tesla. No doubt about it. But in ten years time, what will be the value of such a vehicle in your Red Book? Will they retain value if their batteries are dead and represent a past age of technology? Possibly not. So for me, it is wait-and-see.
Peter
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