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Thanks Clive. I checked 2 or 3 keywords and they point towards Israel's deepstate longterm strategies? I'm German. So in principle I'm particularly wary about things smelling of antisemitism.
But...
Here, I'll give you more food for consp.theor., pertaining to the developments before the Syrian civil war began. I just hope it's understandable English...
Since 2006, the civil war had been preceded by 4 successive droughts. (Climate change-related or not: it can also be used as prediction where it will lead to in all states along the equator - and then lead to further destabilization in refugees-receiving countries - if we do not slow down the warming. Now.)
So, these droughts...
In parallel, there was a rapprochement! between the young dictator and the EU. France had initiated it. That was in 2008. Red carpet for Assad+Wife. Assad was even ready for peace talks with Israel - under the moderation of Erdogan! His willingness was the prerequisite for a consolidated EU connection, because Israel's security is historically important, of course, even raison d'ętre at least of Germany. It could have come to a fruitful, also peacefully democratizing connection.
Moreover, this connection could also have served to alleviate the effects of the droughts, and thus to a more stable society in which Assad could have carried out reforms, despite the drought and the impoverishment of the rural population.
Instead, Israel started a Gaza war, exactly in the transition gap Dec-January '08/'09, when the US was waiting for the new POTUS, Obama. This Gaza war made both Erdogan and Assad angry. Something also happened with a Turkish aid ship off the coast of Gaza, which was a special affront.
The 3-week war Israel launched resulted in the separation of the young love between EU and Assad. Because Assad and Erdo broke off the peace talks with Israel, the member states of the EU had no other choice.
Clever, isn't it? No idea, why it was so important for Israel to prevent the Assad-EU connection in 2008/09. But they did it. Possibly in alignment with the US-deep-state who feared Obama's different approach was going to jeopardize their longterm strategies in the middle East.
With the consequence that Assad saw himself isolated, again, that he had to reorient himself, did not introduce reforms, and Syria became a powder keg because of the droughts and rural exodus into the cities.
I see no other reason to launch the Gaza war back then. Create facts. And do so before Obama would be able to support the EU-Assad thing.
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